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Its not exactly about the majority minority seats in Fl. FL-19 and FL-20 for example are heavily Democratic seats that aren't majority minority seats. All three districts, FL-19, FL-20 and FL-22 are in a heavily Democratic area. During the last round of redistricting the GOP went to very extreme levels to make FL-22 less Democratic (turned it into a marginal district and made the already heavily Dem FL-19 and 20 even stronger Dem). With the new compactness law its going to certainly impact all three district. There is no way anything other than three heavily Democratic districts can be drawn in that area under the new compactness law.
West's district is going to from a marginal district into a Democratic district, and even with FL-19 and FL-20 weakened a bit for the Democrats, both are still going to be staunch Democratic districts. Just no way the GOP can hold onto that seat and comply with the new compactness laws. A couple other examples exist in the state, but that is the most glaring one.
Right, 19 and 20 are the older Jewish retiree districts so they are majority white and very left. I wouldn't write off Colonel West though, a Republican named Clay Shaw represented the more democratic 22nd for a very long time. We'll just see what happens won't we.
They got a slap, what the democrats did to the republicans in the 08' midterms was an outright slaughter. Dems are still running the show. They have the senate, the presidency, the filibuster and the veto. The republicans are at the bottom of the totem pole.
The Democrats won 21 seats in 2008 vs. a 63 seat gain by Republicans last month. Even 2006 only saw a gain of 31 seats by the Democrats. You could add both elections and never surpass Republicans gains last month.
Right, 19 and 20 are the older Jewish retiree districts so they are majority white and very left. I wouldn't write off Colonel West though, a Republican named Clay Shaw represented the more democratic 22nd for a very long time. We'll just see what happens won't we.
That is part of my point. For starters Shaw was quite a bit more moderate than West. Shaw wasn't exactly in the Leach, Shays wing of the GOP, but he was also more moderate. With the compactness law, the GOP won't be able to gerrymander FL-22 anymore. Its going to be much closer to the Democratic district Shaw represented in the 90's. West, is much further right than Shaw. Put West into a district similar to the one Shaw represented in the 90's, West had no chance. Keep in mind the reason why they gerrymandered the district to the extent they did was to protect Shaw who barely held on in 2000.
The GOP REVERSED all the gains and then some of 2008. Just look at the numbers to see. Not just the House and Senate, but governorships and state house, in which the democrats were pummeled under a RECORD wave of red.
I've told you this before, the filibuster is a tool/tactic for the MINORITY. The majority has no use for it.
They have less dems in the Senate - now the GOP can stop whatever they want, while still losing a few of the RINOs.
Since we now have the House, where ALL appropriations bills originate, the GOP can defund, cut funds, for whatever they like, most likely obamacare. Oh please, let obama make a stand and try to force the GOP House to fund obamacare, a law that is MORE unpopular now than ever before, a law that has been deemed unconstitutional by the court.
Oh, no it didn't! Colorado elected a new Democratic governor to replace the outgoing gov. and kept its Democratic senator despite his opponent being endorsed by the TP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby
LOL, God knows no information escapes that the government doesn't want to escape. See Wikileaks.
Oh, no it didn't! Colorado elected a new Democratic governor to replace the outgoing gov. and kept its Democratic senator despite his opponent being endorsed by the TP.
Wikileaks has leaked census data?
OK, let me help you out here, it is called an analogy.
Both the Yahoo link and the My Way link are speculative. They do not offer hard data. (Actually, it's the same story in both links.) They give a link to the census bureau which says "2 more Days". Or maybe you have some leak that has not yet been posted in this thread?
Arizona is NOT a lost cause for the Dems. It may be for the next 5 to 10 years but long term it will demographically be Democrat.
Why - because by that time it will be overrun with illegals?
Another consequence of the GOP winning all those governorships and state houses where they have control of both chambers - MORE laws like the Arizona illegal immigration law. The best possible scenario would be to chase all the illegals to states that embrace, shelter and advocate for them, like CA and NY.
Oh, no it didn't! Colorado elected a new Democratic governor to replace the outgoing gov. and kept its Democratic senator despite his opponent being endorsed by the TP.
Wikileaks has leaked census data?
Oh yes they did. The GOP GAINED 7 governorships, of course they gained the House by taking 63 seats, more than the dems won in 2006 and 2008 COMBINED, they won 7 seats in the Senate and don't forget the RECORD number of state legislatures they now CONTROL. I'd say that's ample evidence that yes indeed, they surpassed dem gains in 2006&2008, unless of course you just want to talk about CO.
Well suppose you provide a link to this leaked material. I just read an article in my local paper that said . . . "until the census figures are released and the states draw up their congressional boundaries, it's all a guess"
This story is not on their website.
The NPR story, like all the others, is very conditional.
Both the Yahoo link and the My Way link are speculative. They do not offer hard data. (Actually, it's the same story in both links.) They give a link to the census bureau which says "2 more Days". Or maybe you have some leak that has not yet been posted in this thread?
The Census Dept releases estimates every year on the population of every state and that is what the estimates are based off. The estimates aren't always full poof and some wiggle room one way or the other does exist. For example, in 2000 it looked like Utah was going to gain a seat based off the estimates. However, NC saw a population surge in 2000 and as a result gained slightly more than Utah did and as a result they picked up the state and Utah did not.
Compared to 2008, based on redistricting 7 EV's would switch from Obama to McCain.
Texas is the only state expected to pick up more than one seat, and is expected to pick up 4 (some have suggested 3, but most think it will be 4)
7 states are expected to pick up one seat, 3 of them won by Obama (FL, NV & WA) 4 by McCain (AZ, GA, SC, UT). Those who were predicted a 3 seat gain for Texas, were picking a 2 seat gain for Arizona.
9 states are expected to lose a seat, all except for 1 (LA) were won by Obama (IA, IL, MA, MI, MN NJ, NY, PA).
Ohio is expected to lose 2 seats.
One thing to keep in mind is just because 7 EV's are switching from Dem to GOP, doesn't mean 7 EV's will. Each state has their own circumstance and issue on which seat will be lost.
For example in Texas, as I was saying earlier at least one of the districts is certainly going to be a Democratic one, no way around that for the GOP. With how extreme the Delay gerrymander was it might be difficult for the GOP to get a 3-1 advantage off the four new seats, it could be 2 GOP seats, 1 Dem and 1 marginal, or even 2 GOP and 2 Dem.
In NY the redistricting will be done in a bi-partisan manner with the Dems having the state Assembly and the GOP the State Senate, but its almost assured that its going to be a GOP seat that is lost. Population dictates it will come from western NY and likely NY-29.
In SC, the new seat might need to be a VRA district. Even if it doesn't, it might be hard to make the new seat a GOP leaning district without hurting Mick Mulvaney (incoming freshman Republican in SC-5) whose district is quite marginal.
In Ohio, two seats will be lost. However, with what the GOP currently controls combined with the fact the current map is already a strong GOP gerrymander at best the GOP eliminates one seat of each.
I spoke about Florida earlier and the fact while the GOP will be in some control of redistricting new compactness law greatly reduces what they can do. In fact it likely hurts them because they had control in the last round of redistricting and took it to rather absurd levels, as seen below (West's district)
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