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I think you might be surprised. Lots of tea party people don't have any real loyalty to the republican party leadership--in fact, if I can quote some of you here--they think they're liberals and they want them voted out. If the R leadership doesn't come through with some of the major tea party issues, I think it's entirely possible that at least some of those tea party members will break off into a third party--especially since some of them aren't the most politically pragmatic people in the world.
Repub voters will NEVER go third party. Especially if it means that Obama would be re-elected.
I'm not talking about standard republicans--I'm talking about the fringe end of even the tea party. I bet lots of Democrats said that Democrats would never vote third party if it meant a R winning, but Ralph Nader upset the 2000 presidential race for them by winning just under 3% of the vote.
I'm not talking about standard republicans--I'm talking about the fringe end of even the tea party. I bet lots of Democrats said that Democrats would never vote third party if it meant a R winning, but Ralph Nader upset the 2000 presidential race for them by winning just under 3% of the vote.
I fit the model you're talking about--I was a R for 30 years and wound up voting D for the first time partly because of Sarah Palin--I'm very much a moderate, and I think most people are. Here's where you're missing the point--you're looking at the world from a further right perspective, so moderates seem like liberals to you--you'd probably call me a liberal. The far right views the world from their point of perspective, but the rest of the country doesn't. Marco Rubio isn't a moderate--he's both a social and economic conservative. He's anti-Gay marriage & any form of gay rights, strongly pro-life/anti-abortion, against any kind of amnesty for illegal aliens, against stem cell research, has a B+ rating by the NRA, wants to cut SSI...the list goes on. Those aren't moderate positions. His economic positions are straight tea party--again--no where near moderate. I'm not even going to go into Rand Paul.
Again--there are lots of swing voters in this country who don't declare party affiliation--last time they were protesting the economy with their votes--it wasn't an endorsement of the tea party platform. It's historically happened in this country over and over when one party has control of both Congress and the Presidency--the voters just vote for CHANGE--not for a party and a candidate.
Do I think a third party will work for the tea party--absolutely not. Do I think some of them might break off--yes. I think the tea party has a fair number of zealots who aren't interested in compromise--certainly not with the Dem's, and not even with the neoconservative Republicans. They might be cutting off their nose to spite their face, but they'll do it. If that happens, the only way I could see the R's winning is if they ran an EXTREMELY moderate candidate who took all of the swing voters--both those who went D and R last time. Again--if the R's run a really conservative candidate, they'll turn off swing voters. If they run a moderate, they lose the TP. The fact that Obama is straddling the center line makes it even more difficult for them. I think the R's are between a rock and a hard place in two years.
Perhaps you misunderstood, I am not claiming Rubio to be moderate, he is by all means a good solid Conservative,
Of course I looking at it from my perspective as everyone does, but history backs me up. When was the last time a moderate republican won the white house Bush 41, ran on Reagans coatails espousing conservative views, governed as a moderate lost 2 term. Bob Dole ........LOSER!! Bush 43, spent like a liberal, but held the conservative base for the most part into his 2nd term. The fact of the matter is self proclaimed Republican moderates are a minority in the party. Any one that wants to win the nomination will have to run solidly to the right to win the primary while not alienating the middle. Rubio won huge in a three way race with Charlie Christ taking the position you espouse. Christ thought exactly what you are saying , the fact is Moderates in the Republican party have for years thought the rest of the country agreed with them in their distaste for Conservatives, every time they are wrong. note: obviously in liberal states such as mine or Mass where Romney comes from a Conservative must temper his ideology if he wants to get elected.
Here's what I'm guessing at this point. Huckabee won't go third party. Michelle Bachmann might. She can raise money with the best of them and she doesn't seem to have a sense of her own limitations. If Bachmann heads off into unknown territory, Palin may go with her. They both have huge egos...
No way Bachmann runs as a 3rd party, she has too much to lose.
That puts an interesting twist on things--nearly half of Palin supporters say they might vote third party if she doesn't get the nomination, as did a third of Mike Huckabee supporters. Even a couple of point shift away from the R's could lose them the election, but it sounds like the far right end of their base isn't in the mood for compromise or excuses from the R party. Interesting...
Are you a social conservative or a real Libertarian? The R party will never drop the religious crazies and therefore will never, ever be a true Libertarian Party. If you are anti-abortion, then you are not Libertarian, in my opinion. If you are anti gay marriage, or even worse, support a constitutional amendment banning it, then you are not a Libertarian. Social/religious conservatism is anathema to a true Libertarian. But go ahead, good luck with that.
Well now Mr Smarty pants......lets review. First of all I am very Libertarian in my views, I just refuse to go full retard and jump on the crazy train. I am a hard core Conservative fiscally and socially, I believe that the government should stop doing 90% of what it does and Constitutionally is only supposed to provide for our military and national defense. Now the funny part..........you wish me luck with that view point.......well how is that Libertarian all or nothing, anarchist third party working out for you? What is the largest percentage of the vote the Libertarian party has ever gotten in a Presidential election 3%? Good Luck with THAT!! Now listen up, you're going to learn something, this ain't my first rodeo, If all you young Idealistic crazy Libertarians joined the Republican party and worked within, to change the party you would actually see some of your Libertarian Ideals being enacted, witness Ron &Rand Paul. That is the way our system works. The problem is Libertarians have become the antisocial crazy uncle that no longer can sit at the adult table, so they will forever languish in obscurity.......too bad.
Perhaps you misunderstood, I am not claiming Rubio to be moderate, he is by all means a good solid Conservative,
Of course I looking at it from my perspective as everyone does, but history backs me up. When was the last time a moderate republican won the white house Bush 41, ran on Reagans coatails espousing conservative views, governed as a moderate lost 2 term. Bob Dole ........LOSER!! Bush 43, spent like a liberal, but held the conservative base for the most part into his 2nd term. The fact of the matter is self proclaimed Republican moderates are a minority in the party. Any one that wants to win the nomination will have to run solidly to the right to win the primary while not alienating the middle. Rubio won huge in a three way race with Charlie Christ taking the position you espouse. Christ thought exactly what you are saying , the fact is Moderates in the Republican party have for years thought the rest of the country agreed with them in their distaste for Conservatives, every time they are wrong. note: obviously in liberal states such as mine or Mass where Romney comes from a Conservative must temper his ideology if he wants to get elected.
I actually agree with what you're saying to a certain extent, but remember--Rubio was a Cuban who won in FLORIDA. That's not a national stage. I think you're right that the R's will run someone to the right, but I'm not sure that if it's right enough for the tea party, that they can win a general election. I also think the point that you're missing is that as they go into details of the budget cuts between now and 2012--like Ryan's strong stand to slash SSI--those are going to be the issues that the moderates run against the R's on. That's where the swing voters will be focused.
...the government should stop doing 90% of what it does and Constitutionally is only supposed to provide for our military and national defense.
Oh, really? When did the other Constitutionally granted powers of the government get eliminated, such as regulating interstate commerce?
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