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View Poll Results: What will February's job numbers report show?
200,000+ net job growth for February 1 5.56%
100,000 - 200,000 net job growth for February 4 22.22%
50,000 - 100,000 net job growth for February 4 22.22%
0-50,000 net job growth for February 5 27.78%
Net job loss for February 4 22.22%
Voters: 18. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-03-2011, 04:47 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
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Well, the recession is behind us and the economy has been growing for over a year now - with factory orders increasing, consumer spending up, new unemployment claims dropping and pretty much every sector of the economy except housing in growth mode - however even though we HAVE had monthly job growth rather than job loss, those numbers have been disappointing & enemic. There WERE 3 months spring of last year that were VERY good (May had 458,000 new jobs - the BEST job number since AT LEAST January of 2001 - HOWEVER the vast majority of the job growth was temporary census jobs) and there was significant job growth in the fall during all of last year there were only 2 months (april & may) that broke 200,000 but the summer actually saw negative numbers as the stimulus started to fade away. Last month it was expected that we would finally show new job creation in the 200,000+ range (which would a be REAL indicator of good economic growth finally paying off for job seekers) - but once again we fell short.

So, what will happen tomorrow? Will we FINALLY see 200,000+ jobs being created a month - and if so will it sustain?

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-03-2011 at 05:44 PM..
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:06 PM
 
2,490 posts, read 3,626,549 times
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0-50,000 job growth
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:08 PM
 
3,190 posts, read 4,150,261 times
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Why bother when they get adjusted at a later date?
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:11 PM
 
9,857 posts, read 6,776,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Well, the recession is behind us and the economy has been growing for over a year now - with factory orders increasing, consumer spending up, new unemployment claims dropping and pretty much every sector of the economy except housing in growth mode - however even though we HAVE had monthly job growth rather than job loss, those numbers have been disappointing & enemic. Last month it was expected that we would finally show new job creation in the 200,000+ range (which would a be REAL indicator of good economic growth finally paying off for job seekers) - but once again we fell short.

So, what will happen tomorrow? Will we FINALLY see 200,000+ jobs being created a month?

Ken
Gallup says the real numbers put unemployment (not counting all those unemployed for a year) at 10.3%, meaning you add the over one year unemployed and the number could be 20%.

You can play games with the numbers, but things are BAD.
Obama also has our currency in a position where it could go bust by increasing the national debt again in two years by over 40%.
You could have elected Linsey Lohan and she would have done better than that IMO. Heck, maybe even a monkey could have even done better.

Loved how the President handled the Gulf though... Oh wait, he botched that as well.
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:15 PM
 
62,774 posts, read 28,088,570 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoobleKar View Post
Why bother when they get adjusted at a later date?
Exactly what I was thinking.
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:16 PM
 
14,253 posts, read 14,811,607 times
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The expectation is for 192,000 jobs. However, there is a tendency to be over optimistic so I will go for 165,000.
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:23 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RCCCB View Post
Gallup says the real numbers put unemployment (not counting all those unemployed for a year) at 10.3%, meaning you add the over one year unemployed and the number could be 20%.

You can play games with the numbers, but things are BAD.
Obama also has our currency in a position where it could go bust by increasing the national debt again in two years by over 40%.
You could have elected Linsey Lohan and she would have done better than that IMO. Heck, maybe even a monkey could have even done better.

Loved how the President handled the Gulf though... Oh wait, he botched that as well.
Well, here's what the BLS numbers say for the month by month net job loss/gain (numbers are in thousands):

2008: +13 -83 -72 -185 -233 -178 -231 -267 -434 -509 -802 -619
2009: -820 -726 -796 -660 -386 -502 -300 -231 -236 -221 -55 -130
2010: -39 -35 +192 +277 +458 -192 -49 -59 -29 +171 +93 +121(P)
2011: +36(P)

The last year of Bush's last term became increasingly horrid as the year progressed & the worst month of all was Bush's last & Obama's first. 2009 was still dreadful but the bloodletting eased as the year progressed. 2010 actually saw net job GROWTH (mainly census jobs) but also saw the growth peter out and turn negative again over the summer. By fall however growth was returning but Jan of 2011 was a very disappointing number (though still showing job growth).

http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutput..._view=net_1mth

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-03-2011 at 05:44 PM..
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:25 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,652 posts, read 7,145,372 times
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It all depends on their adjustment. What they have done the last few months is lower the bar. For example lets say October of 2009 put the job number at 850,000. If the October 2010 number came in at say 875,000 jobs that would be a small gain. So the BLS has been lowering the bar through a series of adjustments. So what would happen is Oct would come in at 875,000 but the NEW bar would be 750,000 so they say we created 125,000 jobs.

It is good to be the king.
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:29 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hilgi View Post
It all depends on their adjustment. What they have done the last few months is lower the bar. For example lets say October of 2009 put the job number at 850,000. If the October 2010 number came in at say 875,000 jobs that would be a small gain. So the BLS has been lowering the bar through a series of adjustments. So what would happen is Oct would come in at 875,000 but the NEW bar would be 750,000 so they say we created 125,000 jobs.

It is good to be the king.
Your post makes no sense.

Ken
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Old 03-03-2011, 05:36 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
Reputation: 6563
Quote:
Originally Posted by KoobleKar View Post
Why bother when they get adjusted at a later date?
Yeah, but I didn't ask what they would be adjusted to.

Ken
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