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Well, the recession is behind us and the economy has been growing for over a year now - with factory orders increasing, consumer spending up, new unemployment claims dropping and pretty much every sector of the economy except housing in growth mode - however even though we HAVE had monthly job growth rather than job loss, those numbers have been disappointing & enemic. There WERE 3 months spring of last year that were VERY good (May had 458,000 new jobs - the BEST job number since AT LEAST January of 2001 - HOWEVER the vast majority of the job growth was temporary census jobs) and there was significant job growth in the fall during all of last year there were only 2 months (april & may) that broke 200,000 but the summer actually saw negative numbers as the stimulus started to fade away. Last month it was expected that we would finally show new job creation in the 200,000+ range (which would a be REAL indicator of good economic growth finally paying off for job seekers) - but once again we fell short.
So, what will happen tomorrow? Will we FINALLY see 200,000+ jobs being created a month - and if so will it sustain?
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-03-2011 at 04:44 PM..
Well, the recession is behind us and the economy has been growing for over a year now - with factory orders increasing, consumer spending up, new unemployment claims dropping and pretty much every sector of the economy except housing in growth mode - however even though we HAVE had monthly job growth rather than job loss, those numbers have been disappointing & enemic. Last month it was expected that we would finally show new job creation in the 200,000+ range (which would a be REAL indicator of good economic growth finally paying off for job seekers) - but once again we fell short.
So, what will happen tomorrow? Will we FINALLY see 200,000+ jobs being created a month?
Ken
Gallup says the real numbers put unemployment (not counting all those unemployed for a year) at 10.3%, meaning you add the over one year unemployed and the number could be 20%.
You can play games with the numbers, but things are BAD.
Obama also has our currency in a position where it could go bust by increasing the national debt again in two years by over 40%.
You could have elected Linsey Lohan and she would have done better than that IMO. Heck, maybe even a monkey could have even done better.
Loved how the President handled the Gulf though... Oh wait, he botched that as well.
Gallup says the real numbers put unemployment (not counting all those unemployed for a year) at 10.3%, meaning you add the over one year unemployed and the number could be 20%.
You can play games with the numbers, but things are BAD.
Obama also has our currency in a position where it could go bust by increasing the national debt again in two years by over 40%.
You could have elected Linsey Lohan and she would have done better than that IMO. Heck, maybe even a monkey could have even done better.
Loved how the President handled the Gulf though... Oh wait, he botched that as well.
Well, here's what the BLS numbers say for the month by month net job loss/gain (numbers are in thousands):
The last year of Bush's last term became increasingly horrid as the year progressed & the worst month of all was Bush's last & Obama's first. 2009 was still dreadful but the bloodletting eased as the year progressed. 2010 actually saw net job GROWTH (mainly census jobs) but also saw the growth peter out and turn negative again over the summer. By fall however growth was returning but Jan of 2011 was a very disappointing number (though still showing job growth).
It all depends on their adjustment. What they have done the last few months is lower the bar. For example lets say October of 2009 put the job number at 850,000. If the October 2010 number came in at say 875,000 jobs that would be a small gain. So the BLS has been lowering the bar through a series of adjustments. So what would happen is Oct would come in at 875,000 but the NEW bar would be 750,000 so they say we created 125,000 jobs.
It all depends on their adjustment. What they have done the last few months is lower the bar. For example lets say October of 2009 put the job number at 850,000. If the October 2010 number came in at say 875,000 jobs that would be a small gain. So the BLS has been lowering the bar through a series of adjustments. So what would happen is Oct would come in at 875,000 but the NEW bar would be 750,000 so they say we created 125,000 jobs.
Why bother when they get adjusted at a later date?
Yeah, but I didn't ask what they would be adjusted to.
Ken
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