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Old 03-04-2011, 12:07 PM
 
6,321 posts, read 8,656,058 times
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What's going to happen when the stimulus dollars that saved many jobs start to run out this summer? Unemployment will increase?
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:19 PM
 
Location: Dallas, TX
31,777 posts, read 24,024,080 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d4g4m View Post
When people stop looking for work, their unemployment benefits run out and they are removed form the pool, of course the unemployment number will go down. Look at the U6 figure if you want to see the real unemployment number.
The 8.9 figure is bogus.
Was it bogus in 2005 and 2006?
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:20 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
18,982 posts, read 21,957,844 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d4g4m View Post
When people stop looking for work, their unemployment benefits run out and they are removed form the pool, of course the unemployment number will go down. Look at the U6 figure if you want to see the real unemployment number.
The 8.9 figure is bogus.
Ah, the U-6 number went down TOO.


Ken
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:22 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
18,982 posts, read 21,957,844 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Motion View Post
What's going to happen when the stimulus dollars that saved many jobs start to run out this summer? Unemployment will increase?
The stimulus is already winding down - and job creation is still picking up and the UE rate still falling.

Ken
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:25 PM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,556 posts, read 18,751,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EinsteinsGhost View Post
Was it bogus in 2005 and 2006?
Yes....

Unemployment should be about the easiest thing to work out.
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Dallas, TX
31,777 posts, read 24,024,080 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Motion View Post
What's going to happen when the stimulus dollars that saved many jobs start to run out this summer? Unemployment will increase?
Historically, there is usually a time when end of stimulus (or, more appropriately, government spending) has resulted in a blip downwards before it picks up again. For example, any major war effort has involved massive government spending.

WWII, for example, when government spending reached well over 50% of the GDP, helped the economy but as spending was brought down, there was a hitch and a blip backwards. The same happened in the 1930s, when higher spending helped improve job and GDP growth through 1937 and when there was a cut back, the nation went back into a recession, before recovering from it again (and into WWII which accelerated the recovery).

The current stimulus wasn't as big a package relative to the size of the economy, and almost 2/3 of it was spent on tax cuts (that is, more of the same), the recovery has been slower. And many of the ideas involved things I didn't expect to help immediately but gradually. So, if that is how it works, I don't think there will be a noticeable jolt before the economy marches on.
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:32 PM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,556 posts, read 18,751,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Ah, the U-6 number went down TOO.


Ken
Wouldn't that occur when the BLS 'revises' 500,000 people out of existence?
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:39 PM
 
10,791 posts, read 6,913,107 times
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Republican mentality:

Unemployment rate goes up = Obama's fault

Unemployment rate goes down = Not Obama's fault
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 38,502,654 times
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RealClearPolitics - Video - White House Economist Austan Goolsbee: "We Have A Long Way To Go"

Even obama's top economic guy is crediting the tax rate extensions....and the GOP gets credit for that, for hanging tough against the dems/obama who wanted to raise the rates.

Quote:
Austan Goolsbee, economic adviser to President Obama, was on MSNBC this morning praising the new jobs reports, citing the tax cut "deal" as a reason for lower unemployment.
Again, for all those lefties asking a while ago, "where are the jobs", well, here they are.

Does anyone think those that have fallen off the rolls will be put back again by the obama administration? Do you really think he will see the UE rate rise over the next year? Not a chance - the are dishonest, they will try and make sure that number doesn't rise.
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Old 03-04-2011, 12:46 PM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,556 posts, read 18,751,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winter_Sucks View Post
Republican mentality:

Unemployment rate goes up = Obama's fault

Unemployment rate goes down = Not Obama's fault
Does the opposite hold true to you?
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