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Old 03-06-2011, 11:01 AM
Status: "Tioli: Troll exterminator" (set 3 days ago)
 
Location: Arizona
12,805 posts, read 7,413,710 times
Reputation: 6766

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In the OP's own charts it shows that 707 billion is the estimated cost for 2010, while revenues from the FICA tax are 865 billion in revenue. Looks to me that SS is solvent. So many who slam SS project what WILL happen in the future. Those who defend it point to WHAT IS happening. What is happening is SS is paying for itself and nobody in the system has ever missed a check.
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Old 03-06-2011, 12:52 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,652 posts, read 7,142,704 times
Reputation: 2840
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Workers actually contributed to the SS program. Money was taken from their paychecks for as long as they worked.
It is technically not a contribution, it is a pay-go system. Your tax is used to pay current retirees, the only reason there has been excess revenue is because of the 1983 law that increased tax rates in order to close the underfunding caused by Nixon adding COLAS.

The only claim you have is against the future tax paying a ability of your kids and grandkids.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
The fact that people paid into these funds dont mean the money is present and the expenses dont exist..

THEY SPENT all of the money, and left with nothing but IOUs for upwards of tens of trillions of dollars.. I've seen estimates upwards of $75Trillion.. Where do you suppose the money comes from to pay it back?
As I said above SS is a pay-go system, meaning your taxes fund current retirees. The years when excess revenue is more than payouts we are left with a surplus, that surplus is placed in nontradable government bonds earning interest. (Trust fund) The trust fund is actually smaller than most think, it is only about $2.6 trillion. (SS and Medi trust funds are $4.6 T)

Unfortunately that is also just a claim on future workers. When a bond is redeemed they bring it over to the "on-budget" portion of the government and first look for excess tax revenue to pay off the bond. If we are running a budget deficit the bond proceeds will be redeemed by issuing new on-budget debt through the normal budgetary process.

The $75 trillion shortfall you are talking about is the underfunded projection in the future budgets for both Social Security and Medicare. Basically in future budgets they assume growth in revenue and various economic assumptions. With no change in the tax rates and demographic projections we will need to make that up somehow, to the tune of $75 trillion.

Of course this is based on the median economic and demographic assumptions, if in the future we do worse than their straight line estimates (for example) 5.5% unemployment. They assume that in the next 75 years unemployment will drop below 7% by 2014 and after 2018 never go above 5.5%. Their WORST CASE assumption puts unemployment never going back above 6.5%. Needles to say these assumptions are not realistic, so $75 trillion might be a low number.

We all need to take note whenever we hear about Social Security solvency and funding dates, they are talking about very generous median economic, birth/death rates, etc. Basically these projections have been off dramatically in the past.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mohawkx View Post
In the OP's own charts it shows that 707 billion is the estimated cost for 2010, while revenues from the FICA tax are 865 billion in revenue. Looks to me that SS is solvent. So many who slam SS project what WILL happen in the future. Those who defend it point to WHAT IS happening. What is happening is SS is paying for itself and nobody in the system has ever missed a check.
The revenue in that chart includes more than SS Tax. In 2010 SS was in the red by $49 billion, both the CBO and SSA show that we will have a trillion dollar deficit over the next decade. Reports as recent as 2008 said we would have a trillion dollar surplus over that same time.

A deficit does not mean missing checks (yet) it just adds more to our on budget debt. When they redeem trust fund bonds they get added to the annual deficit and our national debt. So as opposed to running up intergovernmental debt that does not need to go into the open market for funding, they issue the bonds to themselves. Once it is transfered to on budget debt it increase the about of bonds we need the world to buy.

In 2010 there were 1,509,278 net new beneficiaries of SS checks. Ten years ago in 2000 the number was 462,740. Those dying usually have much smaller checks than those now retiering.

The problem is compounding fast.
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Old 03-06-2011, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
16,473 posts, read 9,346,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RCCCB View Post

Shhhhhhh! Nobody wants to talk about this or do anything because it is unpopular.
Who are the publishers of Business Insider? Do you know?

All I can find out is that it is a blog out of Silicon Valley that publishes without any verifiable attribution.
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:03 PM
 
Location: By the sea, by the sea, by the beautiful sea
54,526 posts, read 38,510,596 times
Reputation: 26891
One picture says it all?

The picture says defense is draining us equally as much as entitlements
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
7,215 posts, read 7,606,495 times
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It's an interesting chart, but the cherry picking the OP used to create the premise of this thread is rather silly.
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:10 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,652 posts, read 7,142,704 times
Reputation: 2840
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuebald View Post
Who are the publishers of Business Insider? Do you know?

All I can find out is that it is a blog out of Silicon Valley that publishes without any verifiable attribution.
Here is a better one. Obama?s 2011 Budget Proposal: How It?s Spent - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:12 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,652 posts, read 7,142,704 times
Reputation: 2840
Quote:
Originally Posted by burdell View Post
One picture says it all?

The picture says defense is draining us equally as much as entitlements
Equal? Defense is 20% Entitlements are 56%.
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:15 PM
 
Location: By the sea, by the sea, by the beautiful sea
54,526 posts, read 38,510,596 times
Reputation: 26891
Quote:
Originally Posted by hilgi View Post
Equal? Defense is 20% Entitlements are 56%.
DOH! I sure blew that one

But with 81% of revenue coming from social insurance and individual income taxes it hardly seems like a great indictment of the system.

I wonder what we spend in corporate subsidies, loopholes, benefits vs. the 9% of revenue they contribute?
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:20 PM
 
1,691 posts, read 1,599,525 times
Reputation: 1168
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Yes, THE chart of the day.

Notice UE benefits - those 2+ years of UE checks sure do add up.

2 YEARS - whoever thought this was a good idea?
Probably the people who would be homeless without them.

Clueless.
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Old 03-06-2011, 01:20 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,652 posts, read 7,142,704 times
Reputation: 2840
Quote:
Originally Posted by burdell View Post
DOH! I sure blew that one
LOL, no worries, that chart not a good one. It does look like they are only talking about SS.

Saw the rest of your post.

Take a look at this, for more detailed budget info. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...us/budget.html

Corporate welfare is usually done via the tax code so you don't see a lot of outright expenditures. That is how they get away with it.
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