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Old 04-01-2011, 08:06 AM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 14,032,473 times
Reputation: 3122

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Not questioning it at all.
ANYONE with knowledge of the stock market knows that the markets care more about WHERE WE ARE GOING than WHERE WE CURRENTLY ARE. That's why the market started falling long the economy collapsed and started gaining long before the US economy was yet growing at a healthy state. It the REASON the stock market is considered a LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR just as the UE Rate is a TRAILING ECONOMIC INDICATOR. Some things happen early in a business cycle and somethings happen late in a business cycle. Stock markets changes happen EARLY, job growth (or shrinkage) happens at the tail-end.

This is why back in April of 2009 I posted that the economy was ALREADY THEN about to turn around (and jumped back into the Stock Market with both feet) - while all you "doom & gloom" types belittled that opinion. I KNEW better however because I'd been watching the LEI (Leading Indicators Index) and had noted that that index had finally turned POSITIVE. Sure enough, within just over a quarter the GDP was positive again and the economy growing. Within a year, monthly job loss had turned to month job GAIN. This growth DID stay weak for longer than I expected (roughly a full year) but late last year the pace recovery began to pick up and this year the pace has REALLY accelerated. There will be tremendous inprovement in the economy this year.



Ken

We have never stayed in a recovery forever. This is the weakest recovery ever and Obama is responsible for that.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:08 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,106 posts, read 61,217,371 times
Reputation: 27362
Job growth is anemic at best. We may be recovering but it's not going to be a recovery to the "good ole days". We now have globalization which is effecting our recovery and the type of jobs that are now available. That is what Americans need to come to terms with.

Because many Americans carry high debt, taking a lower paying job still puts them at risk if they cannot make their debt payments.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:16 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
17,942 posts, read 19,656,910 times
Reputation: 5901
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
We have never stayed in a recovery forever. This is the weakest recovery ever and Obama is responsible for that.
Not such a weak recovery, just one that lost steam temporarily last summer but got back on track at the end of the summer.

Here's the website I've been watching for 2 years now - and that first gave me an indication of recovery coming. I watch the e-LEI (orange) number. Note how steep the recovery curve was last spring. Last summer however it dropped off again before returning to a VERY STEEP upward curve last fall. it sputtered a little in November, then rocketed upward again and NOW it's pulling upward VERY STRONGLY.



Leading Indicators GDP US City State Global Semiconductor Company Business Forecasting Economic Forecasts

Ken
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:22 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
17,942 posts, read 19,656,910 times
Reputation: 5901
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Job growth is anemic at best. We may be recovering but it's not going to be a recovery to the "good ole days". We now have globalization which is effecting our recovery and the type of jobs that are now available. That is what Americans need to come to terms with.

Because many Americans carry high debt, taking a lower paying job still puts them at risk if they cannot make their debt payments.
There IS some truth to the "globalization" comment - and consequently job growth will NOT be what it was back in the days when America was "producer to the world" - we simply have too much overseas competition nowadays that we didn't have 20/30/40 years ago. Nevertheless, the growth will be considerable and relatively "healthy" - far more so (I think) than you are expecting.
By the end of THIS year the UE rate will be below 8% & by election time next year it will be approaching 7%.

Ken
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:24 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,106 posts, read 61,217,371 times
Reputation: 27362
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
There IS some truth to the "globalization" comment - and consequently job growth will NOT be what it was back in the days when America was "producer to the world" - we simply have too much overseas competition nowadays that we didn't have 20/30/40 years ago. Nevertheless, the growth will be considerable and relatively "healthy" - far more so (I think) than you are expecting.
By the end of THIS year the UE rate will be below 8% & by election time next year it will be approaching 7%.

Ken
I do agree with that. By hook or by crook that UE number will come down and will be topmost in Obama's bid for reelection.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:25 AM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 14,032,473 times
Reputation: 3122
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Not such a weak recovery, just one that lost steam temporarily last summer but got back on track at the end of the summer.

Here's the website I've been watching for 2 years now - and that first gave me an indication of recovery coming. I watch the e-LEI (orange) number. Note how steep the recovery curve was last spring. Last summer however it dropped off again before returning to a VERY STEEP upward curve last fall. it sputtered a little in November, then rocketed upward again and NOW it's pulling upward VERY STRONGLY.



Leading Indicators GDP US City State Global Semiconductor Company Business Forecasting Economic Forecasts

Ken

Sorry, it is the weakest recovery ever, you simply can't change the facts. Be very careful of inflation, the fed is already making noise about raising rates to control it. The weak recovery we have will be wiped out.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:29 AM
 
13,398 posts, read 6,778,426 times
Reputation: 10425
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
Sorry, the facts speak for theselves. As I have pointed out earlier in this thread this is the weakest recovery ever, I encourage you to review the link.

Further, 6 months doesn't seem a short period of time to reassure the business community that Obama will be reigned in and fiscal policy will be controlled by cooler heads.
Waiting for skyrocketing inflation to kick in. What will be the excuse then?
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:31 AM
 
10,618 posts, read 12,086,087 times
Reputation: 5913
Look at history. Until two years ago, 1982-83 had the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression, with unemployment over 10% for 10 months. It snapped back quicker because it was pushed down so low. In other news, traffic fatalities reached a new low last year. Obviously a lot fewer killed driving to work.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:34 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
17,942 posts, read 19,656,910 times
Reputation: 5901
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
Sorry, it is the weakest recovery ever, you simply can't change the facts. Be very careful of inflation, the fed is already making noise about raising rates to control it. The weak recovery we have will be wiped out.
Potential inflation IS a cause for concern as the recovery picks up speed. However, with interest rates currently near ZERO, the Fed is in a better position than ever to combat it since raising the interest rate is the tool generally used to fight inflation. So, as inflation increases, the Fed will simply do what it has ALWAYS done to tame inflation - slowly raise interest rates. This WILL cool the economy, but recovery is now pretty firm footing so it shouldn't be too big of a setback.

All in all, a pretty good place to be.



Ken
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:36 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
17,942 posts, read 19,656,910 times
Reputation: 5901
Quote:
Originally Posted by ringwise View Post
Waiting for skyrocketing inflation to kick in. What will be the excuse then?
Then the Fed will raise interest rates and inflation will come back down (same as it's always worked). And - as I've already said - with current interest rates near record lows, there's plenty of room to raise rates without them becoming excessive.

Ken
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