Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
He has the audacity to praise the President of Brazil nonstop for exhorting to drill in offshore waters off their coast, but won't permit similarexploration anywhere in the USA or Canada.
Um.. GDP postive BECAUSE OF GOVERNMENT spending, isnt a recovery. If thats all it took, the government could spent non stop, increasing their expenses month after month, and the economy would never enter a recession
Tell that to the workers of GM & Chrysler who still have their jobs because of some of that government spending, tell that to their suppliers, to the businesses who customers are those GM & Chrysler workers, tell that to ANYONE who's still working because the company he/she works for got a contract for a stimulus-funded project.
Somehow THOSE folks will have a different assessment of what constitutes a recovery.
Frankly I don't give a damn what YOU consider a recovery - especially when the numbers tell a totally different story.
Pretty good article comparing the US economy and jobs going back to 1961 when we were a producer nation. One interesting bit..production accounts for only 14% of the jobs in the US..86% of US jobs are of the service nature.
Take this Job and Shove it | FINANCIAL SENSE
"So, here we find ourselves 18 months into a “recovery” and the country has added 1.3 million jobs in the last year. We’ve added 529,000 lawyers, accountants, consultants and tax specialists. We’ve added 420,000 teachers, nurses and administrators. We’ve added 193,000 waitresses and hotel busboys. And we’ve added 238,000 Wal-Mart clerks. Our well balanced economy is back in gear. What could go wrong?"
Pretty good article comparing the US economy and jobs going back to 1961 when we were a producer nation. One interesting bit..production accounts for only 14% of the jobs in the US..86% of US jobs are of the service nature.
Take this Job and Shove it | FINANCIAL SENSE
"So, here we find ourselves 18 months into a “recovery” and the country has added 1.3 million jobs in the last year. We’ve added 529,000 lawyers, accountants, consultants and tax specialists. We’ve added 420,000 teachers, nurses and administrators. We’ve added 193,000 waitresses and hotel busboys. And we’ve added 238,000 Wal-Mart clerks. Our well balanced economy is back in gear. What could go wrong?"
Well, aside from the fact that the number above (in red) are simply made up (nothing in the data gets that specific) and ANY article that simply makes stuff up pretty much condemns itself as (at least partly) BS, lets looks shall we at one specific aspect of the US labor market over the last 50 years - manufacturing. The article harps a great deal on the fact that the number of manufacturing jobs has fallen dramatically over the last 50 years, and - despite a pick up in manufacturing jobs over the last 18 months (more or less ENTIRELY IGNORED by the article) - the fact remains that over the long run the article is correct in that to a large degree manufacturing jobs HAVE disappeared. A large part of that is due to the availability overseas nowadays of educated and trained labor (AND political stability) - something that wasn't readily available overseas 50 years back. 50 years ago places like China, Korea, Malyasia, India & Vietnam were simply NOT in a position to be able to reliably manufacture goods for US firms - they didn't have the physical infrasture in place, nor the trained and educated work force, nor a political environment worthy of the risk & investment involved in setting up overseas factories. That has now changed. In that regard, the "warning" aspect of the article generally rings true - US manufacturing HAS moved overseas to a disconcerting degree.
However, there is WHOLE 'nother aspect of the decline of the manufacturing work for that the author completely IGNORES - one that has had a HUGE impact on the size of the US manufactoring labor force. It's a factor with probably more of an impact on the size of the manufacturing labor force than the "offshoring" aspect - and it's one that is NOT due to ANY political transformation at all, nor due to any national policy or trade agreements or any such thing. Quite simply it's the affect of AUTOMATION. The last 50 years has produced an astonishing burst of technological advancement - and this is nowhere as apparent as in the area of manufacturing. Nowadays - with modern CAD/CAM technology whole assembly lines can operate with just a handful of human supervisors. Back then, even assembly line work required a LOT of human interaction and involvement - today, it can sometimes require NONE at ALL.
This is the primary reason that the percentage of manufacturing jobs has shrunk dramatically while the percentage of service sector jobs - which still require a LOT more human interaction - has increased. Face it, manufacturing is a match "made in heaven" for automation - and it always has been - even from the early days of the Industrial Revolution when even limited mechanization could EASILY outproduce the old style "cottage industry" methods of manufacturing. Today, with computing capability having increased by leaps and bounds of the last 3 decades or so, computers are VASTLY more capable, FAR more plentiful and INCREDIBLY cheaper than they were 50, 30 or even 10 years ago. Computers today can pretty much do it all when it comes to manufacturing - from assembly, to painting the product, to using lasers to check quality control tolerances, to boxing and packaging, to automatically keep track of and replenish inventory (I know about this personally, as I spent 10 years developing automated order and inventory control systems) - computers can do it all.
THAT is the main culprit in the disappearance of manufacturing jobs. Even companies that have not offshored their manufacturing are now doing FAR more work with LESS human workers because computers can all but run the factories THEMSELVES.
So, the author - and YOU - can rant and rave that we need to create more manufacturing jobs, but the fact is, manufacturing - as a source of jobs - will NEVER EVER be the driver that it once was. The truth is, in a manufacturing environment human workers simply CANNOT compete cost-wise with modern computer-controlled manufacturing equipment and processes. They just can't - and they NEVER will again. In fact, as computers become ever more sophisticated, the number and types of jobs that automation takes over is going to increase dramatically.
Technology - probably MORE than offshoring - is what's driven the number of US manufacturing jobs down - and that trend is ONLY going to continue. iN FACT, we're likely to see more and more jobs being taken over by automation. Voice & visual recognition technology is now starting to make many jobs which used to be needed to be performed by humans now being performed by computers. Heck, modern technology in aircraft today makes pilots NEARLY (not quite yet) superfluous - and in fact technology has advanced so far that in the next couple of decades you could even see jobs such as truck drivers and cab drivers taken over by on-board computers. Already cars can parallel park themselves, keep themselves in their proper lane while on cruise control, even stop the vehicle automatically if you fail to note the car ahead of you has stopped, and in the past year or so Google (of all folks) has been testing cars ON Southern California roads IN traffic with other vehicles, that COMPLETELY drive themselves. These vehicles KNOW WHERE they ARE and WHAT is AROUND THEM - and they NEVER become inattentive, NEVER are distracted and NEVER nod off. Seven such test cars drove 1,000 miles without human intervention & more than 140,000 miles with only occasional human control. One even drove itself down Lombard Street in San Francisco, one of the steepest and curviest streets in the nation. The only accident, engineers said, was when one Google car was rear-ended while stopped at a traffic light. A "pilot" was on board at all times to oversee the vehicle and step in if necessary, but the fact is that for most of that time those cars DROVE THEMSELVES COMPLETELY ON THEIR OWN - using onboard tools like GPS for navigation and vision and radar systems to keep track of traffic light changes and other cars around them.
As I said, it's NOT politics that's driving down manufacturing job levels so much as it's AUTOMATION. And NOTHING is going to stop that.
NOTHING.
Is it scary?
Yes it is (in many ways).
Is it anyone in particular's fault - any political party or poltician?
Nope, it's simply technological change.
Can we do anything about it?
I doubt it. It we don't do it, it'll still be driven by factors overseas anyway.
The best we can do, is PAY ATTENTION to changes in labor needs and try and keep up with the changes - and of course "hold on" (it's going to be a bumpy ride over the next few decades).
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 04-04-2011 at 08:10 PM..
No that would be something started under Clinton and perpetuated by Barney Frank & GW. Bush.
Progressive's and Progressive lite.
I can't pin that on Obama, as much as I would like to.
I do because he hasn't done sh$t to fix it....and to the poster that responded to my post that people in my neighborhood shouldn't have bought homes they couldn't afford...no it's called my neighbors losing jobs and being unemployed for 2 years...
Unemployment is getting ready to skyrocket again as the effects of record oil prices ripple throughout the broader economy. I am going to be conservative and call 14% by Q4 2011. 2012 will be the darkest year in our entire nation's economic history. I predict at least 20% unemployment sometime in 2012.
Unemployment is getting ready to skyrocket again as the effects of record oil prices ripple throughout the broader economy. I am going to be conservative and call 14% by Q4 2011. 2012 will be the darkest year in our entire nation's economic history. I predict at least 20% unemployment sometime in 2012.
Well, you know, you're likely to be as accurate with THIS prediction as you were back a YEAR ago (March 30 2010) when you said the following:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
I honestly think when we see GDP declines in the range of 6-10% in Q3 and Q4 of this year, and unemployment tops 15%, the stock market will be barreling downward, though I think bottom will be closer to the 3,000 mark. However, anything could happen. I would not be surprised to see Dow 500 in this economy.
So, shall we look to see what ACTUALLY happened?
Instead of NEGATIVE GDP in the 6-10% range in the Q3 & Q4, we had POSITIVE GDP figures of 2.6% & 3.1% - not exactly stellar, but still representing economic GROWTH (and a FAR cry from GDP figures of -6 to -10% (which would have been ENORMOUS)).
The UE rate (I'm going to guess that you meant the U-3 rate since at the time you made your post the U-6 was HIGHER than what you were predicting - which would mean you were predicting a DECREASE in the UE rate) has DROPPED from 9.7% to 8.8% as opposed to the 15% number you predicted.
The DOW - which you predicted would come down to around 3,000 (and maybe as low as 500) has INSTEAD, CLIMBED to about the highest level in roughly 3 years (well over 12,000 - a FAR cry from your "3,000" prediction).
Not much of a record to instill any kind of confidence in your predictions (remind me NEVER to take YOUR financial advice).
Not to mention that you had THIS wierd post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
The wrath of God is coming upon us, and its coming to our pocketbooks. Its no co-incidence that the Dow fell 777 points on the eve of Rosh Hashanah. 777 is the Holy number of God, and the Dow fell exactly that amount on a day that was the 273rd day of the year (adds up to 12), and there was 93 days left in the year (also adds up to 12, the number of disciples of Jesus Christ). God was giving us a warning that day of whats to come. Its our material wealth that has made this country greedy and gluttonous, and the time has come for us to pay the piper. Repent now or much worse is to come!
I mean come on, get real - "Holy numbers"?
How do you expect ANYONE to take you seriously sprewing that kind of stuff?
You keep singing the SAME OLD tired tune and instead, things just keep improving - so I guess the thing to REALLY watch out for is when YOU start sounding like an optimist.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 04-08-2011 at 04:10 PM..
Reagan was way faster...Obama slowed the recovery by using useless regulations / laws
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
