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Old 04-15-2011, 11:43 AM
 
Location: South Carolina - The Palmetto State
1,147 posts, read 1,657,033 times
Reputation: 1459

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Wow - since the introduction of actual facts and knowledge on the subject instead of just blind ideology - this thread sure ground to a halt!

Of course - I wonder if the "you want seniors to eat cat food" crowd has actually looked at the price of cat food lately!
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Old 04-15-2011, 11:48 AM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,962 posts, read 7,780,188 times
Reputation: 3158
Quote:
Originally Posted by cougfan View Post
Wow - since the introduction of actual facts and knowledge on the subject instead of just blind ideology - this thread sure ground to a halt!

Of course - I wonder if the "you want seniors to eat cat food" crowd has actually looked at the price of cat food lately!
I notice I am often a thread killer, kinda sucks.
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Old 04-15-2011, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Flippin AR
5,466 posts, read 4,704,691 times
Reputation: 6134
Quote:
Originally Posted by hilgi View Post
If they didn't borrow the trust fund the assets would still be only about $2.6 Trillion, that doesn't sound fixed to me. NO matter how we slice it, more people need to pay in than take out, it is a pay-go system. Even the SSA admits it.
If that money existed, it could be put into annuities. That would be more than enough to pay for the Baby Boom at a very generous return. Annuities are the easiest means to invest a small amount now for a reliable and decent return in retirement.

Economists are on the record to verify that the SS Trust Fund would have paid for the retirement of the Baby Boom, even without annuities: "The baby boomers have contributed more to Social Security than any other generation," says economist Allen W. Smith. "They have prepaid the cost of their own retirement, in addition to paying the cost of the generation that preceded them...According to Smith, by 2018, the baby boomers will have paid enough extra taxes to have generated a $3.7 trillion reserve in the trust fund, which would be sufficient to pay full benefits until 2042 when the youngest of the boomers would be 78 years old." A Penigma - a mystery, under a pseudonym: Who Spent the Social Security Trust Fund Money?

From another source: "The 1983 payroll tax hike has generated more than $2.5 trillion that is supposed to be in the trust fund. If the trust fund actually held this amount in real assets, full Social Security benefits could be paid until at least 2037 without any changes." Social Security money stolen by government « The PPJ Gazette

Yet another source: "The commission decided that the baby boomers should pay higher Social Security taxes than any other generation had ever paid. In addition to paying enough taxes to fully fund the retirement benefits of the previous generation, which was customary, the baby boomers were required to pay additional taxes that would prepay most of the cost of their own benefits, which was not customary. In other words, the baby boomers were hit with a double whammy....The 1983 payroll tax hike was designed to generate Social Security surpluses for the next 30 years. This surplus Social Security revenue was supposed to be saved and invested in order to build up a large reserve in the trust fund....If this had all been done, Social Security would not even be in the news today. The trust fund would have contained approximately $2.6 trillion of “good-as-gold” marketable U.S. Treasury bonds that could be gradually sold in the open market so that full Social Security benefits could have been paid until 2037." Social Security Amendments of 1983 Laid Foundation for Social Security Scam
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Old 04-15-2011, 12:05 PM
 
58,896 posts, read 46,099,513 times
Reputation: 36564
Quote:
Originally Posted by Savoir Faire View Post
How can it be broke if it brings in more than it pays out???? Didn't you read the nice colorful big chart I laid out for you?

I'll explain it further, $865 - $701 = $164, see that's what people call a surplus
This post is so stupid and uneducated that I will have to just hope it is just an attempted troll.
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Old 04-15-2011, 12:45 PM
 
44,527 posts, read 19,085,148 times
Reputation: 10494
Quote:
Originally Posted by cougfan View Post
Bingo! The SS that comes out of ones' paycheck is going straight to fund a recipient's payment. I find a LOT of people think there is an "account" set aside in their name at Social Security Land and the monies build up until they start receiving payments. There isn't any such thing.

I believe I read somewhere the average recipient goes beyond what they "put in" plus interest in benefits in less than 6 years. I'm going to try and find that study to see if those numbers have improved or gotten worse.
In 1940 - Ida May Fuller worked for three years under the Social Security program. The accumulated taxes on her salary during those three years was a total of $24.75. Her initial monthly check was $22.54. During her lifetime she collected a total of $22,888.92 in Social Security benefits.
Social Security Online

You would have thought someone would have seen a problem with plan back then.

Last edited by Quick Enough; 04-15-2011 at 12:53 PM..
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Old 04-15-2011, 03:07 PM
 
Location: The Land of Reason
13,241 posts, read 11,095,053 times
Reputation: 3549
Just think if Bush would gotten his way SS would be controlled by Wall St. Maybe thats why they want to get rid of it. Wait a minute HOW can they give the money back to the people that have been putting in money for the last 20-40 years? Would it be a big refund check or will they try to keep it?
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Old 04-15-2011, 03:11 PM
 
69,360 posts, read 58,394,989 times
Reputation: 9372
Quote:
Originally Posted by Savoir Faire View Post
I don't know, probably spent on other government programs, like the military. Unlike Social Security, the dept of defense does not produce any revenue.
bzz. wrong answer.. Federal taxes pay for governmental programs while Social Security pays for "welfare" plans.. Military is one of the ONLY things the US Govt is authorized to spend money on...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffdoorgunner View Post
Everyone that pays into social security does not live forever...........Many people die before they even get to collect a dime.........
And those that do live and collect?
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Old 04-15-2011, 04:16 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,962 posts, read 7,780,188 times
Reputation: 3158
Quote:
Originally Posted by NHartphotog View Post
If that money existed, it could be put into annuities. That would be more than enough to pay for the Baby Boom at a very generous return. Annuities are the easiest means to invest a small amount now for a reliable and decent return in retirement.

Economists are on the record to verify that the SS Trust Fund would have paid for the retirement of the Baby Boom, even without annuities: "The baby boomers have contributed more to Social Security than any other generation," says economist Allen W. Smith. "They have prepaid the cost of their own retirement, in addition to paying the cost of the generation that preceded them...According to Smith, by 2018, the baby boomers will have paid enough extra taxes to have generated a $3.7 trillion reserve in the trust fund, which would be sufficient to pay full benefits until 2042 when the youngest of the boomers would be 78 years old." A Penigma - a mystery, under a pseudonym: Who Spent the Social Security Trust Fund Money?


From another source: "The 1983 payroll tax hike has generated more than $2.5 trillion that is supposed to be in the trust fund. If the trust fund actually held this amount in real assets, full Social Security benefits could be paid until at least 2037 without any changes." Social Security money stolen by government « The PPJ Gazette

Yet another source: "The commission decided that the baby boomers should pay higher Social Security taxes than any other generation had ever paid. In addition to paying enough taxes to fully fund the retirement benefits of the previous generation, which was customary, the baby boomers were required to pay additional taxes that would prepay most of the cost of their own benefits, which was not customary. In other words, the baby boomers were hit with a double whammy....The 1983 payroll tax hike was designed to generate Social Security surpluses for the next 30 years. This surplus Social Security revenue was supposed to be saved and invested in order to build up a large reserve in the trust fund....If this had all been done, Social Security would not even be in the news today. The trust fund would have contained approximately $2.6 trillion of “good-as-gold” marketable U.S. Treasury bonds that could be gradually sold in the open market so that full Social Security benefits could have been paid until 2037." Social Security Amendments of 1983 Laid Foundation for Social Security Scam
There are several glaring flaws with the information provided.

The first on is this quote. "...According to Smith, by 2018, the baby boomers will have paid enough extra taxes to have generated a $3.7 trillion reserve in the trust fund."

This is taken from a 2005 article Social Security is Short of Funds Because Politicians Spent It The $3.7 Trillion figure is taken from the 2005 SS uncertainty projection using the median sampling. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/68xx/doc6...MonteCarlo.pdf This assumed a $1 trillion surplus between 2005 and 2018. Unfortunately due to unforeseen events not modeled in their uncertainty forecast, the surplus has yet to materialize and we are actually dipping into the trust fund as of 2010.

In the CBO report we have actually experienced economic conditions that are far worse than their worst case projections for SS. As you can see in figure 10 the WORST case projection for unemployment was 7%, obviously we have far surpassed that. In figure 19 even the worst case scenario does not show a negative for several years.

In order to redeem a trust fund bond we need to go to the on budget side of the government and either pay it off with tax revenue, or if we are in deficit, issue new on budget debt. Borrowing the trrust fund just took what would have been $2.6 trillion more in on budget debt and transfered it to off budget debt. Our net financial situation would not be different either way.

What real assets could we have held the trust fund in? Stocks? Even if we had held it in cash accounts (which banks do we choose) our on budget debt we be the equal amount higher, no change in our financial situation.

Now to the annuity question. We currently have 44 million people receiving SS either full or early retirement, with an average monthly check of $1,178. Last year our NET additions (new retiree's - people dieing) were over 1.4 million people. The maximum new monthly check is over $2,300. People who died were receiving much less, so our average monthly check is increasing dramatically.

This money comes from payroll taxes and now a little of the trust fund. Assuming ALL 60 million eligible boomers were to rely on the trust fund, this would mean they would currently have an annuity of $43,000 each. At current rates from a lifetime only annuity from an insurance company they would receive $258 a month, the other $2,100 must come from future taxes.

This assumes the trust fund is not depleted before all boomers retire.

The social security projections, even worst case are pure fantasy.
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Old 04-15-2011, 04:47 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
23,446 posts, read 49,926,944 times
Reputation: 18107
hilgi, I agree with you and you've got me worried. LOL SS is 48% of my retirement income (from all sources), primarily b/c my employer screwed over its older employers, reducing the pension benefit 75%. I better not work too hard at longevity. Think I'll plan a European vacation while I still can walk and have an income.
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Old 04-15-2011, 05:12 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,962 posts, read 7,780,188 times
Reputation: 3158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
hilgi, I agree with you and you've got me worried. LOL SS is 48% of my retirement income (from all sources), primarily b/c my employer screwed over its older employers, reducing the pension benefit 75%. I better not work too hard at longevity. Think I'll plan a European vacation while I still can walk and have an income.
I know, reality sucks! My saving grace is my health, major health issues starting in my 30's will keep me from collecting for to long.

The thing is something will give, my hunch is major deflation which will reset everything. Inflation would hurt the banks so I don't see it in the cards. Either way the future will be interesting. Hunker down!
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