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Old 04-29-2011, 09:02 AM
 
12,517 posts, read 15,665,884 times
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Let me play Devils advocate: from September of 1982 to June of 1983 unemployment was above 10 percent. That was longer than under Obama. Yes, unemployment among college graduates is much worse today.
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Old 04-29-2011, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Cali
3,905 posts, read 6,309,121 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 90sman View Post
2009? Thats when the Great Recession ended, two years ago? I find that hard to believe.
I do too.
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Old 04-29-2011, 09:14 AM
 
2,087 posts, read 2,284,366 times
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I'm doing better than ever.

If you are not making money right now, you are just lazy.

Stop complaining. Get off the welfare, stop relying on government, and find a job.

Obama 2012.
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Old 04-29-2011, 09:25 AM
 
5,114 posts, read 4,759,352 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
And do you realize the role the weak dollar plays in that price?

Back in the 1970s, Carter blamed rising energy costs for his stagflated economy. He also didn't understand rising energy costs were merely a symptom of his weak dollar, and it was his weak dollar that was driving inflation and interests rates leading to stagnation.
Momonkey, were you alive in the 1970's? I was.

I remember the oil shock of 1973, when an OPEC Oil Embargo forced gas prices up to record high prices.

I remember the oil shock of 1979, when the Shah of Iran was overthrown, the Islamic fundamentalist government was established and the oil from Iran was greatly reduced.



A decline in the supply of oil plus low interest rates drove the dollar's inflation. Paul Volker, a Carter appointee, tamed inflation with extremely high interest rates.

You've got the tail wagging the dog.
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Old 04-29-2011, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
31,560 posts, read 20,791,233 times
Reputation: 8884
Quote:
Originally Posted by kshe95girl View Post
Sanrene, are you old enough to remember the recession in 81-82?
From an adult perspective, that is.

81-82?

You mean right after Carter put the WPT in place, domestic oil production collapsed, imports increased and gasoline reached an inflation adjusted $3.50/gal?

"Unless we tax the oil companies, they will reap huge and undeserved windfall profits,"

- Jimmy Carter

Sound familiar?

Thanks Jimmy! Without you and your new tax domestic oil production wouldn't hit a twenty year low.

Good thing we had Reagan to fix that crap.
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Old 04-29-2011, 09:54 AM
 
5,114 posts, read 4,759,352 times
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Economically speaking, Reagan didn't fix anything.

Volcker tamed inflation.

The long-delayed economic upswing kicked in at a most fortuitous time for Reagan - else he would have been a one-term president.
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Old 04-29-2011, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
31,560 posts, read 20,791,233 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
Momonkey, were you alive in the 1970's? I was.

I remember the oil shock of 1973, when an OPEC Oil Embargo forced gas prices up to record high prices.

I remember the oil shock of 1979, when the Shah of Iran was overthrown, the Islamic fundamentalist government was established and the oil from Iran was greatly reduced.



A decline in the supply of oil plus low interest rates drove the dollar's inflation. Paul Volker, a Carter appointee, tamed inflation with extremely high interest rates.

You've got the tail wagging the dog.

Carter wasn't president in 1973.

In 1978 the price of crude on the world market was $49.99 USD/BBL. Two years later, in 1980, the price was $99.11 USD/BBL and just about double. The problem with your theory of oil imports driving inflation is the price we paid for crude in unadjusted dollars more than doubled. That price went from $14.95/BBL in 1978 to $37.42/BBL in 1980. If the price we paid in 1980 were $29.64/BBL, you might have a point, but it didn't and you don't. What the world paid for crude doubled, but what we paid more than doubled indicating our currency lost value relative to commodities and other currencies.

Last edited by momonkey; 04-29-2011 at 10:30 AM..
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Old 04-29-2011, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
5,801 posts, read 5,588,188 times
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The amazing thing is that even after the 'windfall profits tax' was passed, it took Congress ages to admit that it was a failure and repeal it.
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Old 04-29-2011, 10:37 AM
 
5,114 posts, read 4,759,352 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
Carter wasn't president in 1973.

In 1978 the price of crude on the world market was $49.99 USD/BBL. Two years later, in 1980, the price was $99.11 USD/BBL and just about double. The problem with your theory of oil imports driving inflation is the price we paid for crude in unadjusted dollars more than doubled. That price went from $14.95/BBL in 1978 to $37.42/BBL in 1980. If the price we paid in 1980 were $29.64/BBL, you might have a point, but it didn't and you don't. What the world paid for crude doubled, but what we paid more than doubled indicating our currency lost value relative to commodities and other currencies.
Nixon detached the USD from the gold standard and it's been allowed to float against other currencies ever since. Add in to the computation the oil futures market and you can't really claim that any difference paid between U.S. and foreign customers is solely due to inflation.
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Old 04-29-2011, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Southeast
4,296 posts, read 6,356,644 times
Reputation: 1445
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
A decline in the supply of oil plus low interest rates drove the dollar's inflation.
Inflation was already an issue before the 1979 oil crisis. Even when you exclude oil and food (which are volatile and intertwined), inflation still rose sharply. The facts remain that under Reagan, we recovered from the worst post-war recession in only 8 months. We are 22 months in to recovery from the last recession with little to show for it.

If Obama had matched Reagan's pace of job growth in the first year of recovery, 5.1 million jobs would have been created in 2010 instead of less than 1 million. In September 1983, the economy produced 1.1 million jobs. That one month nearly 30 years ago beat all of 2010.

Last edited by Frankie117; 04-29-2011 at 11:45 AM..
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