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Old 04-29-2011, 09:46 PM
 
25,163 posts, read 49,059,607 times
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You'd better get a bicycle or perhaps start your own rickshaw business.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
No, things have been getting steadily worse since then. Maybe 2009 is when the "recession" ended and the "depression" began. There is very little to be hopeful for in America right now. There will be no quick fix, and this thing will not be over in the matter of just a few years.

If gas prices go any higher, the consumer economy will completely collapse and take the broader economy with it. I strongly believe we will end the year with unemployment north of 12%, possibly even 15% (U3 rate). Its laughable that the Dow continues to rise which there is zero, I mean ZERO good news in this economy. Obama inherited the worst economy since Jimmy Carter, and he has turned it into an economic catastrophe rivaling the Great Depression.

2011 so far reminds me a lot of 1928. The US economy was in recession in 1928 and there was very little in the way of positive news, yet the stock market kept soaring to new heights.

The true state of today's economy could support a Dow maximum of maybe 6000, and even that I think is a little high. Dow 4000 is a little more realistic.
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Old 04-29-2011, 10:07 PM
 
27,890 posts, read 35,029,036 times
Reputation: 4035
Default A little flash back...

Quote:
STATEMENT OF
Alice M. Rivlin, Director
Congressional Budget Office
before the
Committee on the Budget
United States Senate

Mr. Chairman, during the last few years the U.S. economy has
performed very poorly, frustrating serious attempts by the Congress
to reduce the growth of federal spending and to move away from
chronic budget deficits. In 1980 a combination of near record
inflation, high unemployment, lagging productivity, and record high
interest rates battered the economy. In the spring, we experienced
a sharp, though brief, decline in output—the seventh recession
since World War II. It increased unemployment and the amount of
unused capacity, but did little, if anything, to ease inflation.
Moreover, the upturn in economic activity in the second half of the
year drove interest rates to new record highs, raising doubts about
whether the recovery would be sustained.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10221/81doc19.pdf
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Old 04-29-2011, 10:37 PM
 
5,765 posts, read 10,459,245 times
Reputation: 3816
Quote:
Its laughable that the Dow continues to rise which there is zero, I mean ZERO good news in this economy.
The Dow is based on expectations for corporate profits. The US is only one part of the global economy. As long as companies have overseas interests, they can still register profit growth, which buffers them from problems in the American economy.

The lesson is, don't hitch your wagon to just one horse. In this case, the domestic economy of a single nation. Diversify your holdings and don't be afraid to look abroad for opportunity.
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Old 04-29-2011, 11:30 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
69,885 posts, read 35,676,727 times
Reputation: 15189
Quote:
Originally Posted by tablemtn View Post
The Dow is based on expectations for corporate profits. The US is only one part of the global economy. As long as companies have overseas interests, they can still register profit growth, which buffers them from problems in the American economy.

The lesson is, don't hitch your wagon to just one horse. In this case, the domestic economy of a single nation. Diversify your holdings and don't be afraid to look abroad for opportunity.
It is a coincidence that when the money presses are printing, the stock market is up. When they stop it crashes.
QE - Bernanke
It is all a house of cards and the wind is picking up.
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Old 04-30-2011, 12:02 PM
 
27,890 posts, read 35,029,036 times
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Default Modern Money Mechanics - FRB of Chicago

Quote:
In the United States neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities. Intrinsically, a dollar bill is just a piece of paper, deposits merely book entries. Coins do have some intrinsic value as metal, but generally far less than their face value.
What, then, makes these instruments - checks, paper money, and coins - acceptable at face value in payment of all debts and for other monetary uses? Mainly, it is the confidence people have that they will be able to exchange such money for other financial assets and for real goods and services whenever they choose to do so.
Money, like anything else, derives its value from its scarcity in relation to its usefulness. Commodities or services are more or less valuable because there are more or less of them relative to the amounts people want. Money's usefulness is its unique ability to command other goods and services and to permit a holder to be constantly ready to do so. How much money is demanded depends on several factors, such as the total volume of transactions in the economy at any given time, the payments habits of the society, the amount of money that individuals and businesses want to keep on hand to take care of unexpected transactions, and the forgone earnings of holding financial assets in the form of money rather than some other asset.
Control of the quantity of money is essential if its value is to be kept stable. Money's real value can be measured only in terms of what it will buy. Therefore, its value varies inversely with the general level of prices. Assuming a constant rate of use, if the volume of money grows more rapidly than the rate at which the output of real goods and services increases, prices will rise. This will happen because there will be more money than there will be goods and services to spend it on at prevailing prices. But if, on the other hand, growth in the supply of money does not keep pace with the economy's current production, then prices will fall, the nations's labor force, factories, and other production facilities will not be fully employed, or both.
Just how large the stock of money needs to be in order to handle the transactions of the economy without exerting undue influence on the price level depends on how intensively money is being used. Every transaction deposit balance and every dollar bill is part of somebody's spendable funds at any given time, ready to move to other owners as transactions take place. Some holders spend money quickly after they get it, making these funds available for other uses. Others, however, hold money for longer periods. Obviously, when some money remains idle, a larger total is needed to accomplish any given volume of transactions.

Copies of this workbook
are available from:
Public Information Center
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
P.O. Box 834
Chicago. IL 60690-0834
[3 121 322-5 1 1 1
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._Mechanics.pdf
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Old 04-30-2011, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
73,713 posts, read 86,174,092 times
Reputation: 44097
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Meanwhile, obama is gutting domestic drilling and exploration. I guess he figures there is no connection between his jihad on drilling/production and the prices at the pump.
oh and you think there is?

Seriously, let's see how the "otherside" spins the rcession return this time. I bet they won't be able to resist blaming Bush in some way.

Of course we have to start drilling, like Bush wanted to do clear back in the early days.

Nita
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Old 04-30-2011, 01:32 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
73,713 posts, read 86,174,092 times
Reputation: 44097
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristineVA View Post
HA! Come visit here in Northern VA. There is NO recession here. Go to the shopping mall in the middle of the day and you still can't get a good parking spot. It's amazing. Back to the thread....
Christine, maybe there isn't in NO VA, 1/2 of the people are employed by the goernment, we used to live there in the 80s.

Here in NWA we are not suffering job losses either, but the cost of food and fuel has gone up everywhere and yes, it will hit even VA before long if something isn't done. Are you going to tell us property values have not gone down in VA? I think not. That is part of the problem.

Nita
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Old 04-30-2011, 01:38 PM
 
23,837 posts, read 20,258,643 times
Reputation: 9386
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristineVA View Post
HA! Come visit here in Northern VA. There is NO recession here. Go to the shopping mall in the middle of the day and you still can't get a good parking spot. It's amazing. Back to the thread....
You do know why that is, right? Lets not pretend that Northern VA is Anyplace, USA.
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Old 04-30-2011, 01:42 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
73,713 posts, read 86,174,092 times
Reputation: 44097
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bostonian123 View Post
I'm doing better than ever.

If you are not making money right now, you are just lazy.

Stop complaining. Get off the welfare, stop relying on government, and find a job.

Obama 2012.
and you represent the entire country, is that what you are saying? Are you going to tell us no one you know has been affected with job loss or cutbacks or finding jobs that are below what they had before the recession? Get real.

Here, let me clue you in: I mentioned this a few days ago:

Our oldest daughter, after 32 years with her company, working her way from college intern to VP lost her job 10 days ago. So did her counter part and another was demoted. They are combining 21/2 jobs into one and hiring someone from the outside for less money.

Our other daughter is affected by her company cutting back via attrition. Everytime someone leaves the company there is no replacement. Now their workload has almost doubled. She and her husband have a business and are trying not to raise prices, but with 10 trucks out in the field everyday you can imagine what this is doing to their profit.

My brother is retiring in about 6 weeks. He can't wait: one reason gas is costing him about $16 a day to and from work.

Have you checked food prices lately? Ice cream that was about $3.79 a month ago is now $4.49 and avocados at Sam's: were 5 for under $5.00 max, now they are $6.95.

As for people getting off their duff and getting a job, there are many who wish it was that easy.

Nita
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Old 04-30-2011, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
73,713 posts, read 86,174,092 times
Reputation: 44097
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
John, you forgot the option that Reagan actually took:

C. Spend one trillion dollars building up the military to fight the Soviets - and all on borrowed dollars to boot!
and are you going to claim that was wrong? It was the thing that saved us. Defense is expensive, but it is needed. One of the best things Reagan did was to make Americans proud of our free country.

Nita
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