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I was looking at these July poll numbers (the line is mine). When it gets closer to the rubber meeting the road, where do you think the votes under the line will go, presuming (maybe erroneously) that the 4 above the line are still in the race?
Will they:
A. throw their support to the candidate that comes closest to the ideology of the candidate they originally supported or in the case of "not sure" their own ideology.
B. vote for the candidate that has the best chance of defeating the probable Democrat nominee (whose identity may be more apparent closer to Super Tuesday).
C. vote for the person they think is the most capable leader, no matter the ideology.
D. decline to vote.
E. vote for a Democrat.
F. other (say what "other" is)
Note: My presumption is that no one with a 2% or less standing in the polls has a chance of winning the general election as a third party candidate or surpassing everyone in the current Republican Top 4 in the primary.
Also, do any or all of these guys with lousy poll numbers (2% or less) have the money to stick it out until the end? Should they?
Good question. My sense is that the Paul votes stay with Paul, and the others go towards Thompson and Romney. If Thompson and Romney keep splitting votes, I wonder if Giuliani can maintain his lead going into the convention, but at about a 40% level of total vote. At this point in time, I think McCain will eventually drop out, with some of his vote going to Rudy, so I don't know if this may give him the 50% plus 1 needed to pull out a win.
I just started wondering if two of the top four don't join forces as president/VP will the one of them strike a deal with Ron Paul as VP so he won't become the Ross Perot of 2008? I could be way off I have no Idea.
Personally I hope Duncan Hunter gets on the GOP ticket as VP because I would have a very hard time voting for a any combo that had Ron Paul in it.
I'm usually pretty good at predicting these things, but I have to admit this election cycle is pretty much up in the air at this point. No republican is really worth voting for.
I'd bet Fred Thompson with Romney probably willing to join the ticket as VP. When McCain drops out - his support (what there is left of it) will break for Thompson.
I just started wondering if two of the top four don't join forces as president/VP will the one of them strike a deal with Ron Paul as VP so he won't become the Ross Perot of 2008? I could be way off I have no Idea.
Personally I hope Duncan Hunter gets on the GOP ticket as VP because I would have a very hard time voting for a any combo that had Ron Paul in it.
Agreed (couldn't vote for Paul but with 2% poll numbers I don't think any candidate would entertain him as a running mate) and I also like Duncan Hunter but I fear a Giuliani/Hunter ticket will lose the support of the flyover states (where I live). I feel that if Giuliani (big city boy) wins the nomination, he needs a guy on his ticket who can campaign in the flyover states. In other words, not Duncan Hunter.
Despite what Republicans and the media say about Giuliani's position on social issues, I think his biggest shortcoming (and I like him very much) is that he's a big city guy who has never really lived anyplace else. For example, we have crime in the suburbs and drugs in rural America, Rudy. Can what you did for crime in New York City work in the burbs and rural areas, too? We don't have squeegie guys. I don't hear him talking about suburbia or rural America issues at all. That's his shortcoming, I think. For that reason, I think he's better paired with Fred Thompson (who has Senate experience and can relate to rural and suburban America). Plus, they both seem to be in sync on national security, taxes and foreign policy issues.
Mitt Romney, to me, doesn't offer anything different. He's the lite version of the other Republican candidates on various issues. I also think he doesn't have a shot of winning in the general election against any Democrat candidate.
John McCain --- I wasn't voting for him before he declared. Every time I think of him he's whispering in Ted Kennedy's ear.
I also hope Newt Gingrich doesn't run. He's a smart man but I think just about every Democrat candidate could beat him.
I think Ron Paul's 2% will go for a Green Party candidate or a Democrat.
The others (Hunter, Huckabee, Tancredo, Brownback) though, and the undecided, I have no idea.
Out of that bunch, why wouldn't everyone vote for Paul?
Because they either want to vote for a winner so they can feel like a winner too or they're voting their morality because they feel it's most important for a politician to share the same moral values.
Most people are sheep and they vote for whomever they're told to by someone else. This has been true since Athens:
Quote:
The worst display of inconsistency the assembly showed, however, was after the revolt on the island of Lesbos had been defeated. In a fit of anger, the assembly decided to put all men in the city of Mytilene to death while enslaving the women and children. The next day, however, some members began to have second thoughts and the issue was brought up for a second vote where the decision of the previous day was reversed. Since a trireme had already been dispatched to deliver the orders, a second was forced to set out to recall the first ship and arrived just in time to save the city. The Athenian general, Cleon, chided the assembly, saying it was better to have bad laws enforced consistently rather than good laws enforced inconsistently. -Daily Reckoning
The Athenian Assembly consisted of whomever happened to be in the agora (which still survives) at the moment. Leaders would seal off the exits, expel any slaves or non-Athenian males, and orate to the masses who would then vote on what to do. Constituency would change by day or even the hour. It was chaotic but then Athens (and Greece) managed to become a major world power for the time so they did something right.
Last edited by Jason_Els; 08-04-2007 at 11:28 PM..
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Giuliani
