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Old 06-13-2011, 01:07 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
8,182 posts, read 9,190,745 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EinsteinsGhost View Post
So, historical data has no place? Do you use anything for a baseline?
It has some value but not for predictions, people tend to anchor to a number as Nassim Taleb points out.

"One such idea is the notion of anchoring. The classic example of anchoring is when you ask someone to estimate a number (preferably one that they truly have to guess at) but first you "suggest another number"... maybe by having them draw a random number from a hat. There will be a correlation between the random number drawn and the estimate that they person gives you because they mentally associated the random number with the estimate they are about to give."

Plus with historical data we would need to have a closed economic ecosystem where all of the same variables of the past are the same as now and in the future.


Quote:
Originally Posted by EinsteinsGhost View Post
Can you avoid such dependency when incomes have remained stagnant for most over last three decades, if not more, but the top 5%?
Not with a debt based monetary system, it is basically a self destructing system.
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