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Old 07-07-2011, 05:32 PM
 
27,903 posts, read 34,424,610 times
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The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.
As with the earlier NIC efforts—such as Mapping The Global Future 2020—the project's primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action. We also hope this paper stimulates a broader discussion of value to educational and policy institutions at home and abroad.
NIC 2025 Project (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html - broken link)

You're not going to be able to grow anything for a very long time.
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,717 posts, read 11,553,820 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
Well clearly that's not true $700 billion in stimulus later.
First, we covered this meme that Keynesian economics didn't work in the 1930s here: http://www.city-data.com/forum/19118368-post10.html We know that the revisionists are busy trying to discredit the policies that reversed the depression but the fact that FDR was elected four times in landslide elections should give an indication that the people living during that time thought FDR's policies were working.

Second, the $700 stimulus wasn't all stimulus. The GOP extracted 40% tax-cuts that did virtually nothing to bolster demand. Thus, a several hundred billion dollar stimulus for an economy that was down trillions in demand -- coupled with states cutting spending and further reducing demand, wasn't given much hope at the beginning with serious economists. In fact, the small size of the stimulus was predicted to provide ammunition to the GOP in their claims that it failed. Yet, it did have positive effects -- just not the optimistic amount that we wanted.
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:35 PM
 
27,903 posts, read 34,424,610 times
Reputation: 4031
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Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
The first thing you do is not frame the discussion as the economy is the trade deficit or budget deficit. What you do is have expansionary polices, instead of talking about cutting government spending we should be talking about another stimulus.
There is a limit at which the rest of the world doesn't care to fund out debt. Unless Obama is a genius, which I doubt, watching us monetize our debt we owe to them isn't going to go over too well. They're already enjoying watching the toxic political climate as the ants scurry...
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 16,309,561 times
Reputation: 3123
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
First, we covered this meme that Keynesian economics didn't work in the 1930s here: http://www.city-data.com/forum/19118368-post10.html We know that the revisionists are busy trying to discredit the policies that reversed the depression but the fact that FDR was elected four times in landslide elections should give an indication that the people living during that time thought FDR's policies were working.

Second, the $700 stimulus wasn't all stimulus. The GOP extracted 40% tax-cuts that did virtually nothing to bolster demand. Thus, a several hundred billion dollar stimulus for an economy that was down trillions in demand -- coupled with states cutting spending and further reducing demand, wasn't given much hope at the beginning with serious economists. In fact, the small size of the stimulus was predicted to provide ammunition to the GOP in their claims that it failed. Yet, it did have positive effects -- just not the optimistic amount that we wanted.
There is ample evidence that FDR's actions pronged the depression.

By the WH's own estimates we spent over 200k per job created by the stimulus. Not a very compelling argument for Kensyian stimulus.
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,717 posts, read 11,553,820 times
Reputation: 5611
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigJon3475 View Post
There is a limit at which the rest of the world doesn't care to fund out debt. Unless Obama is a genius, which I doubt, watching us monetize our debt we owe to them isn't going to go over too well. They're already enjoying watching the toxic political climate as the ants scurry...
There are limits to everything but we're not close to that limit as evidenced by the rest of the world buying our bonds yielding low rates -- which is why raising the debt limit is important.

What isn't important is dealing with deficits and debt now, when unemployment should be the full focus. We will need to deal with deficits and debt when unemployment is closer to full employment.
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:52 PM
 
278 posts, read 546,724 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotair2 View Post
For the sake of argument, lets assume that tax increases hurt the economy and tax cuts hurt the economy.

What are some of the things that can be done to create jobs that does not involve reduction on spending or increases on taxes?

A large problem is the trade deficit.

Below are graphs that show the trade decit and trading partners, as you can see, the wheels started falling of about the same time that our deficit started getting larger. There is certainly a correlation.

The US Trade Deficit

How do we fix the trade deficit? I have not heard either side addressing this problem.
The U.S. has a trade deficit due to its oil dependency. The U.S built its cities for cars and not for people. A trade deficit will always exist because the U.S. Consumes 25 percent of the oil that is produced worldwide on a daily basis.

If the U.S. Had walkable/compact european style cities, the U.S. Would have a gigantic trade surplus and the average Joe would have a lot more disposable income.
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:56 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
6,801 posts, read 7,362,623 times
Reputation: 2960
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotair2 View Post
For the sake of argument, lets assume that tax increases hurt the economy and tax cuts hurt the economy.

What are some of the things that can be done to create jobs that does not involve reduction on spending or increases on taxes?

A large problem is the trade deficit.

Below are graphs that show the trade decit and trading partners, as you can see, the wheels started falling of about the same time that our deficit started getting larger. There is certainly a correlation.

The US Trade Deficit

How do we fix the trade deficit? I have not heard either side addressing this problem.
Let it reset naturally, let debt evaporate, don't bailout banks, don't bailout home owners, let the deleveraging forces get over with fast.
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Old 07-07-2011, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,717 posts, read 11,553,820 times
Reputation: 5611
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
There is ample evidence that FDR's actions pronged the depression.

By the WH's own estimates we spent over 200k per job created by the stimulus. Not a very compelling argument for Kensyian stimulus.
That claim comes from the Weekly Standard taking the high-end full cost, including tax-cuts and dividing it by the low-end of job creation estimates. In other words, it wasn't a scholarly unbiased analysis. It was an agenda based hit piece. ABC News critics it here: $278K per Stimulus Job? White House Says No. - Political Punch
Quote:
then, as now, White House officials note that the spending didn't just fund salaries, it also went to the actual costs of building things -- construction materials, new factories, and such.
I would advise all to analyze facts and avoid conclusions based upon questionable evidence and methodology created merely to throw and ideological punch.
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Old 07-07-2011, 06:05 PM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 16,309,561 times
Reputation: 3123
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
That claim comes from the Weekly Standard taking the high-end full cost, including tax-cuts and dividing it by the low-end of job creation estimates. In other words, it wasn't a scholarly unbiased analysis. It was an agenda based hit piece. ABC News critics it here: $278K per Stimulus Job? White House Says No. - Political Punch

I would advise all to analyze facts and avoid conclusions based upon questionable evidence and methodology created merely to throw and ideological punch.
Lol, even using ABC's number north of 70k per job is still pitiful.
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Old 07-07-2011, 06:12 PM
 
Location: Earth
17,446 posts, read 23,938,022 times
Reputation: 7266
Quote:
Originally Posted by Venezuelan View Post
The U.S. has a trade deficit due to its oil dependency. The U.S built its cities for cars and not for people. A trade deficit will always exist because the U.S. Consumes 25 percent of the oil that is produced worldwide on a daily basis.

If the U.S. Had walkable/compact european style cities, the U.S. Would have a gigantic trade surplus and the average Joe would have a lot more disposable income.
Not to mention US society would be in better shape with far fewer social ills.

How about shutting down military bases overseas, ending the war on drugs, and pulling out of the foreign wars?
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