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I say pass it and make sure to inform the American people at every chance that i's his baby that he demanded to be passed immediatly to create jobs. When the jobs aren't created they can blame whoever they want but he's the one holding the bag with this nonsense. Of course make a HUUUUUGE deal about bending over and becoming bi partisan because they are sick of the rhetoric on the way to vote too. Let the libs eat their heroes poison.
The bill is full of toxic provisions. If there are any good parts (cutting taxes, for example), pass them as stand-alone bills. No more A to Z mega-bills.
My next door neighbor would not be working if it were not for stimulus money. Another neighbor has been looking for a position since Hurricane Ike. He has had some jobs. Substitute teaching will not pay property taxes in Texas and he can't sell his house.
Maybe he can walk away from it in a few years when the Dust Bowl rolls through (again).
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Originally Posted by mco65
SS has to change.. period.. but don't worry about, nothing to see here.. keep moving along.
That reminds me of the joke: "How many psychiatrists does it take to change Social Security?"
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Originally Posted by Katiana
Obamacare? What has that cost the taxpayer so far?
About 2 Million jobs and the price tag according to the CBO's most recent estimate is $1.3 TRILLION.
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Originally Posted by WestCobb
The system will be able to pay out full benefits until 2037 and 77% of full benefits for the next 60 years following 2037.
No it won't.
Social Security cannot even payout full benefits now, and Obama wants to reduce the tax even more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by roysoldboy
If SS was in the red this year, I will have to say that I just don't see how it goes in the red till 2037.
There are two default dates for Social Security.
The first most commonly used is the 2016 date. That is the date (October 1, 2015) at which Social Security will no longer be able to fund day-to-day operations.
At that point, the options are to raise the Social Security Tax, raise the cap on Social Security, raise taxes on tax payers and pull money from the General Fund, don't raise taxes and pull money from the General Fund (a budget cut), or start converting the IOUs into cash, which will require raising taxes, or will require cutting the budget, or cut benefits, limit benefits or a combination of one or more of those things.
The 2037 Date is when the Social Security Trust Fund goes bust.
Remember that during this entire time, there aren't enough people working to support the number of people on Social Security. When the program first started, there were 46 workers for every Social Security beneficiary. That number dropped drastically during the 1950s and continued dropping through day. I believe there are now less than 3 workers for every one person on Social Security.
Somewhere in the mid-2020s, it will be less than 2 people supporting one person on Social Security.
That would leave $62 Billion, but that estimate is from 2008 and the CBO has recently said Social Security will be about $11 Billion short this year.
There are an estimated 33,902,000 retirees between 2008 and 2018. It doesn't take a PhD in mathematics to crunch the numbers on a spread sheet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by roysoldboy
That kind of thinking is based on the over $3 trillion in worthless bonds in that lock box but I don't see how when we are operating on yearly deficits and there is no longer any SS "surplus" paid in we continue to keep it alive with just raising the retirement rate now and then. It is 67 now and they are talking about 70. There has to be more than that done.
I believe the actual figure is $2.414 TRILLION.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
I initially believed the Republic rhetoric about the "worthless lock box bonds" but then I started following non biased expert opinion. The surplus money -- which you are correct totals over $3 trillion -- is invested in U.S. treasuries. Yes, one branch of the government owes the other branch, but that doesn't mean it's not there. Where would you like to see that money invested? You can't keep $3 trillion laying around in small bills, Roy.
Oh, man, you didn't read the fine print, did you? Nope.
I'll spell it out for you:
Quote:
The cash receipts collected from the public for the OASI and DI Trust Funds are invested in interest bearing securities backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government’s generally U.S. par-value Treasury special securities. Treasury special securities are issued directly by the Treasury Secretary to the OASI and DI Trust Funds and are non-negotiable and non-transferable in the secondary' market. Par-value Treasury special securities are issued with a stated rate of interest applied to its par amount and are purchased and redeemed at par plus accrued interest at or before maturity. Therefore, there are no premiums or discounts associated with the redemption of these securities.
SSA's investments in Special-Issue U.S. Treasury Securities are $2,367,135 and $2,182,091 million as of September 30, 2008 and 2007. respectively. The interest rates on these investments range from 3.5% to 7.25% and the accrued interest is paid on June 30. December 31, and at maturity or redemption. Investments held for the OASI and DI Trust Funds mature at various dates ranging from the present to the year 2023. Accrued interest receivable on the OASI and DI Trust Fund Investments with the U.S. Treasury is an Intra-governmental Interest Receivable. Net, reported on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Interest receivable amounts are $29,112 and $27,727 million as of September 30, 2008 and 2007.
Treasury special securities are an asset to the OASI and DI Trust Funds and a liability to the U.S. Treasury. Because the OASI and DI Trust Funds and the U.S. Treasury are both pan of the Government, these assets and liabilities offset each other for consolidation purposes in the U.S. Government-wide financial statements. For this reason, they do not represent a net asset or a net liability in the U.S. Government-wide financial statements.
The U.S. Treasury does not set aside financial assets to cover its liabilities associated with the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The cash received from the OASI and DI Trust Funds for investing in these securities is used by the U.S. Treasury for general Government purposes. Treasury special securities provide the OASI and DI Trust Funds with authority to draw upon die U.S. Treasury to make future benefit payments or other expenditures. When the OASI and DI Trust Funds require redemption of these securities to make expenditures. the Government finances those expenditures out of accumulated cash balances, by raising taxes or other receipts, by borrowing from the public or repaying less debt, or by curtailing other expenditures This is the same way that the Government finances all other expenditures.
In case you missed it:
When the OASI and DI Trust Funds require redemption of these securities to make expenditures. the Government finances those expenditures out of accumulated cash balances, by raising taxes or other receipts, by borrowing from the public or repaying less debt, or by curtailing other expenditures This is the same way that the Government finances all other expenditures.
Let's look at those.
accumulated cash balances
That would be the proverbial "Clinton Surplus" (snicker). Who among you is so naive as to believe the US government will ever have a surplus budget anytime in the next 50 years?
by raising taxes
Yes, that means raising either the personal income tax, or the Social Security Tax, or both. other receipts
That would be raising the Capital Gains Tax, Estate Tax, or import duties, tariffs and taxes, or by increasing the fine schedule for federal offenses, or by increasing the cost of permits and fees the US government requires to do business or engage in other activities within the US.
borrowing from the public
That means converting the IOUs from non-public debt to public debt and praying to whatever god you believe in that the Chinese, Koreans, Taiwanese, Swiss or Germans will buy your debt and bail you out.
repaying less debt
Um, I'm speechless. That is a very nice way of saying "default" on current debt obligations.
curtailing other expenditures
That means giving DOD $500 Billion, HUD $200 Billion, HHS $200 Billion, DEd $200 Billion and then telling them each they have to give $50 Billion from their budget to Social Security.
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Originally Posted by WestCobb
As a SS beneficiary, why don't you let this be one issue that you don't listen to the Republic zombies?
Um, the quote above comes from US Treasury, not "Republican zombies."
There is no actual money in the Social Security Trust Fund. What is there is/are IOUs and they must be converted to cash and the US Treasury Department outlines what must be done to convert the IOUs to cash and that is what is stated above (by the US Treasury Department and not by "Republican zombies").
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Like you, I have paid into SS my entire working life -- which now is nearly 20 years.
Location: Georgia, on the Florida line, right above Tallahassee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimMe
Wrong again. Last year the Republicans campaigned on Obama's and the Dems runaway spending and the unconstitutional (and job-killing) Obamacare. In fact they passed a bill in the House to kill Obamacare which, if passed in the Senate and signed by Obama, would have returned a measure of clarity and certainty to the marketplace. Bottom line: the best jobs plan is to defeat Obama next year and to put Dems in the minority in both Houses of Congress.
To support its claim, the GOP report first cites the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — but the report badly misrepresents what CBO actually said.
In fact, CBO did not predict a 650,000 job loss. The Republican report cites a CBO report from August, which actually said that the economy will use less labor primarily because many people will choose to work less, or retire early, as a result of the new law. (See Box 2.1, pages 48 and 49.) What CBO projects is mostly a reduction in the supply of labor, which is not the same as a reduction in the supply of jobs.
Facts. Facts are fun. But made-up rhetoric, man... that's even funner.
Do you know why they would choose to work less or retire early? They would have still have insurance, that's why. Republicans can't stand to think of old people having insurance and retiring early or working less. It drives them crazy.
The bill is full of toxic provisions. If there are any good parts (cutting taxes, for example), pass them as stand-alone bills. No more A to Z mega-bills.
But Obama has had so much success with first Stimulus, second stimulus, Obamacare, and so on. Make them very long and people don't read them till they are passed. It has worked so well up to now so surely it is very good to use.
Mircea, those were some nice zombie talking points. Now how about some truth?
----
The Social Security Trust Funds are the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds. These funds are accounts managed by the Department of the Treasury. They serve two purposes: (1) they provide an accounting mechanism for tracking all income to and disbursements from the trust funds, and (2) they hold the accumulated assets. These accumulated assets provide automatic spending authority to pay benefits. The Social Security Act limits trust fund expenditures to benefits and administrative costs.
Benefits to retired workers and their families, and to families of deceased workers, are paid from the OASI Trust Fund. Benefits to disabled workers and their families are paid from the DI Trust Fund. More than 98 percent of total disbursements in 2010 were for benefit payments. A Board of Trustees oversees the financial operations of the trust funds. The Board reports annually to the Congress on the financial status of the trust funds.
By law, income to the trust funds must be invested, on a daily basis, in securities guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the Federal government. All securities held by the trust funds are "special issues" of the United States Treasury. Such securities are available only to the trust funds.
In the past, the trust funds have held marketable Treasury securities, which are available to the general public. Unlike marketable securities, special issues can be redeemed at any time at face value. Marketable securities are subject to the forces of the open market and may suffer a loss, or enjoy a gain, if sold before maturity. Investment in special issues gives the trust funds the same flexibility as holding cash. Data on trust fund investments provide a breakdown by interest rate and trust fund for any month after 1989.
The rate of interest on special issues is determined by a formula enacted in 1960. The rate is determined at the end of each month and applies to new investments in the following month.
The numeric average of the 12 monthly interest rates for 2010 was 2.760 percent. The annual effective interest rate (the average rate of return on all investments over a one-year period) for the OASI and DI Trust Funds, combined, was 4.642 percent in 2010. This higher effective rate resulted because the funds hold special-issue bonds acquired in past years when interest rates were higher.
Tax income is deposited on a daily basis and is invested in "special-issue" securities. The cash exchanged for the securities goes into the general fund of the Treasury and is indistinguishable from other cash in the general fund.
Money to cover expenditures (mainly benefit payments) from the trust funds comes from the redemption or sale of securities held by the trust funds. When "special-issue" securities are redeemed, interest is paid. In fact, the principal amount of special issues redeemed, plus the corresponding interest, is just enough to cover an expenditure.
The amount bought in 2010 was $1,020 billion, while the amount sold was $929 billion. See investment transactions for more detail and earlier years.
As stated above, money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U. S. Government securities. Because the government spends this borrowed cash, some people see the trust fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government will be unable to make good on in the future. Without legislation to restore long-range solvency of the trust funds, redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be necessary.
Far from being "worthless IOUs," the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government. The government has always repaid Social Security, with interest. The special-issue securities are, therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial instruments of the Federal government.
Many options are being considered to restore long-range trust fund solvency. These options are being considered now, over 20 years in advance of the year the funds are likely to be exhausted. It is thus likely that legislation will be enacted to restore long-term solvency, making it unlikely that the trust funds' securities will need to be redeemed on a large scale prior to maturity.
In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 25 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience.
Some benefits could be paid even if the trust funds are depleted. For example, under the intermediate assumptions, annual income to the trust funds is projected to equal about three-quarters of program cost once the trust funds become depleted. If no legislation has been enacted to restore long-term solvency by that time, about three-quarters of scheduled benefits could be paid in each year.
The Trustees believe that extensive public discussion and analysis of the long-range financing problems of the Social Security program are essential in developing broad support for changes to restore the long-range balance of the program.
The assets of the larger trust fund (OASI), from which retirement benefits are paid, were nearly depleted in 1982. No beneficiary was shortchanged because the Congress enacted temporary emergency legislation that permitted borrowing from other Federal trust funds and then later enacted legislation to strengthen OASI Trust Fund financing. The borrowed amounts were repaid with interest within 4 years.
-----
The Republic Party is working very hard to steal the money that I, and millions of other Americans. have paid into Social Security. It's not going to work though.
Link yourself, since you need to open your eyes wide. You can start with the CBO report.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Mircea, those were some nice zombie talking points.
That's straight from US Treasury, so those would be their talking points, not mine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Now how about some truth?
I gave you the Truth, but there are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Money to cover expenditures (mainly benefit payments) from the trust funds comes from the redemption or sale of securities held by the trust funds. When "special-issue" securities are redeemed, interest is paid. In fact, the principal amount of special issues redeemed, plus the corresponding interest, is just enough to cover an expenditure.
Like a poor marksman, you keep missing the point.
Explain to everyone exactly how those "special-issue" securities are redeemed.
Never mind, I'll let the US Treasury Department explain it for you:
When the OASI and DI Trust Funds require redemption of these securities to make expenditures. the Government finances those expenditures out of accumulated cash balances, by raising taxes or other receipts, by borrowing from the public or repaying less debt, or by curtailing other expenditures .This is the same way that the Government finances all other expenditures.
That's how they are redeemed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Far from being "worthless IOUs," the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government.
Yeah, so? Again, you keep missing the point. How exactly are thsoe "special-securities" redeemed?
Once again, the US Treasury Department explains:
When the OASI and DI Trust Funds require redemption of these securities to make expenditures. the Government finances those expenditures out of accumulated cash balances, by raising taxes or other receipts, by borrowing from the public or repaying less debt, or by curtailing other expenditures .This is the same way that the Government finances all other expenditures.
The "full faith and credit of the U.S. Government" is you, the tax payer.
The government gets its money from taxes, not by putting on sack-cloth, smearing their forehead with ashes, fasting and praying real hard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
The government has always repaid Social Security, with interest. The special-issue securities are, therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial instruments of the Federal government.
The government has not re-paid anything. It has simply added numbers to numbers. There's no money there. You don't seem to get that. You can prance around and wave your "special securities" in everyone's face, but in the end it's just a piece of paper and to convert it into cash, one of the following has to be done:
When the OASI and DI Trust Funds require redemption of these securities to make expenditures. the Government finances those expenditures out of accumulated cash balances, by raising taxes or other receipts, by borrowing from the public or repaying less debt, or by curtailing other expenditures .This is the same way that the Government finances all other expenditures.
You seriously believe the US government will have budget surplus any time in the next 50 years? Then you aren't dealing with reality.
You want to raise taxes now? Good luck with that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
In the annual Trustees Report, projections are made under three alternative sets of economic and demographic assumptions. Under one of these sets (labeled "Low Cost") the trust funds remain solvent for the next 75 years. Under the other two sets (the "Intermediate" and "High Cost"), the trust funds become depleted within the next 25 years. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience.
And what does the report say on Page 7?
Quote:
Any projection of the future is, of course, uncertain. For this reason, alternatives I (low-cost) and III (high-cost) are included to provide a range of possible future experience. The actual outcome for future
costs is very unlikely to be as extreme as either of the outcomes portrayed by the low- and high-cost projections.
You might want to read the CBO's January 2011 report:
Quote:
The aging of the population and rising costs for health care will push federal spending as a percentage of GDP well above that in recent decades. Specifically, spending on the government’s major mandatory health care programs— Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance
Program, and health insurance subsidies to be provided through insurance exchanges—along with Social Security will increase from roughly 10 percent of GDP in 2011 to about 16 percent over the next 25 years.3 If revenues stay close to their average share of GDP for the past 40 years, that rise in spending will lead to rapidly growing budget deficits and surging federal debt. To prevent debt from becoming unsupportable, policymakers will have to substantially restrain the growth of spending, raise revenues significantly above their historical share of GDP, or pursue some combination of those two approaches. (Note 3: See Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook June 2010, revised August 2010).
Again, how do you convert your "special-securities" to cash?
US Treasury says:
When the OASI and DI Trust Funds require redemption of these securities to make expenditures. the Government finances those expenditures out of accumulated cash balances, by raising taxes or other receipts, by borrowing from the public or repaying less debt, or by curtailing other expenditures .This is the same way that the Government finances all other expenditures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Some benefits could be paid even if the trust funds are depleted. For example, under the intermediate assumptions, annual income to the trust funds is projected to equal about three-quarters of program cost once the trust funds become depleted.
They weren't projecting unemployment to remain at 9% for the rest of the decade. Get with the program.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
The Republic Party is working very hard to steal the money that I, and millions of other Americans. have paid into Social Security. It's not going to work though.
I'm a registered Democrat. The only one working hard to destroy Social Security, is Obama who has insisted on a temporary Social Security Tax reduction and now is calling for a further reduction.
The SSA didn't exactly factor the Social Security Tax cut into their estimates either.
Now will they capitulate or try to fight the nothing he offered with his jobs speech with nothing. No matter what they do they will be accused by the left, the media and probably independents of being against jobs if they try to avoid the trap he set.
The answer seems to me to be to come up with things that will show that they are interested in jobs but think there may be better ways than another stimulus bill.
IF that is what they do, then I think it means that government is working.
Don't like one way of doing things, come up with an alternative.
Vote on it.
I initially believed the Republic rhetoric about the "worthless lock box bonds" but then I started following non biased expert opinion. The surplus money -- which you are correct totals over $3 trillion -- is invested in U.S. treasuries. Yes, one branch of the government owes the other branch, but that doesn't mean it's not there. Where would you like to see that money invested? You can't keep $3 trillion laying around in small bills, Roy.
As a SS beneficiary, why don't you let this be one issue that you don't listen to the Republic zombies? Like you, I have paid into SS my entire working life -- which now is nearly 20 years. I want to be able to collect my earned benefits when I'm your age. If the Republics do nothing, then this will happen. They just can't pass this opportunity up, however, to manufacture a crisis to rob me by converting SS into a 401K-reduced-benefit scheme.
I wouldn't worry about SS going broke. Assuming economic growth gets back on track, they'll have enough revenue to pay most of the benefits earned. I assume they will means-test the top 20% or so out so they can pay full benefits to the bottom 80% or so.
What I would worry about though is how much of the benefit payment will be siphoned off for medicare premiums. That's where the s**t is going to hit the fan...
I'm a registered Democrat. The only one working hard to destroy Social Security, is Obama who has insisted on a temporary Social Security Tax reduction and now is calling for a further reduction.
The SSA didn't exactly factor the Social Security Tax cut into their estimates either.
Soc Sec tax collections would be reduced, but, what would have been collected will be made up thru general tax collections. SSA will not be without that revenue. I will give you a link, can't make you read it, but it is there for you.
Would Obama’s payroll tax cut hurt Social Security? | Reuters Money (http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-money/2011/09/09/would-obamas-payroll-tax-cut-hurt-social-security/ - broken link)
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