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Old 12-21-2011, 06:09 PM
 
3,574 posts, read 3,963,467 times
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Interesting new theory just posed on CNBC by Howard Dean (so take it with a grain of salt):

A possible "one-off" win for Ron Paul in Iowa would nullify Gingrich's chance for a comeback (who is imploding now) and allow Romney a window of opportunity to win New Hampshire... and eventually the GOP nomination.

Howard Dean says Ron Paul has a "ceiling" on the number of supporters he can get among the mainstream and I think I agree there. This is NOT a slam against Ron Paul, but let's be honest, not a lot of middle-of-the-road Republicans are eager to embrace a lot of Libertarian views that are the foundation of Ron Paul's platform. They may nominate Romney because he's "electable" (nice hair!) and he's considered the "safe" choice. Ron Paul has a young, organized and energentic base, but they may not make up a majority in time for the nomination. Time is short.

I'm not saying I totally agree with this theory, but it sort of makes sense if you think about it. Do you think this theory will come to pass? If not, why not?
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:12 PM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
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Ron Paul's skeletons are creeping up behind him. Who knows what the impact of that will be?
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:14 PM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
28,728 posts, read 18,648,220 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by logline View Post
Interesting new theory just posed on CNBC by Howard Dean (so take it with a grain of salt):

A possible "one-off" win for Ron Paul in Iowa would nullify Gingrich's chance for a comeback (who is imploding now) and allow Romney a window of opportunity to win New Hampshire... and eventually the GOP nomination.

Howard Dean says Ron Paul has a "ceiling" on the number of supporters he can get among the mainstream and I think I agree there. This is NOT a slam against Ron Paul, but let's be honest, not a lot of middle-of-the-road Republicans are eager to embrace a lot of Libertarian views that are the foundation of Ron Paul's platform. They may nominate Romney because he's "electable" (nice hair!) and he's considered the "safe" choice. Ron Paul has a young, organized and energentic base, but they may not make up a majority in time for the nomination. Time is short.

I'm not saying I totally agree with this theory, but it sort of makes sense if you think about it. Do you think this theory will come to pass? If not, why not?

OK, but Howard Dean is nuts!

This contest has boiled down to Gingrich and Romney's money.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:15 PM
 
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Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
This contest has boiled down to Gingrich and Romney's money.
Gingrich? He's falling faster than one of Newton's apples.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
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Originally Posted by ovcatto View Post
Gingrich? He's falling faster than one of Newton's apples.

Even if Paul pulls out a miracle in Iowa, he still has less than half the support of Gingrich and almost exactly half the support of Romney in nationwide polls. He's an also ran without a prayer of ever getting beyond 13%.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:30 PM
 
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Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
Even if Paul pulls out a miracle in Iowa, he still has less than half the support of Gingrich and almost exactly half the support of Romney in nationwide polls.
Yeah, I understand but if Paul wins in Iowa the dynamic is radically altered, at least in the short run. Frankly, I think the Republican establishment is going to do everything in its power to stop both Gingrich and Paul.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:33 PM
 
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So apparently you both agree with Dean's theory then?
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:44 PM
 
31,385 posts, read 30,672,407 times
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Originally Posted by logline View Post
So apparently you both agree with Dean's theory then?
It's not just Dean's theory. Take a look at recent articles about the panic amongst the GOP leadership who have openly launched scathing attacks about Gingrich's character (and I'm not talking about the wife issue).

As for Paul, the negative attacks won't be coming from the left, at least not yet. They are coming from the conservative establishment of the GOP, trust me. Paul knocks out Gingrich just like Cain knocked off Bachmann the only one still standing steady is Romney.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:50 PM
 
Location: Evergreen, Colorado
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The Rino elitist are in a panic over Paul and Newt. Romney is their selected man and will do anything to clear them out.
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Old 12-21-2011, 07:12 PM
 
32,357 posts, read 14,046,370 times
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I have said all along Romney will win NH. A New Englander winning in NE is no surprise.
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