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Old 03-24-2012, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Riverside
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The US Supreme Court will hear three days of oral arguments on a case brought by 26 states, attempting to block Obamacare on the grounds that it is unconstitutional. Any predictions on how they will rule?

I'll go first: I predict the conservative court will find for the government, in favor of Obamacare, by a 7-2 vote (dissenting will be Thomas and Scalia).

The Roberts court will (no doubt reluctantly) hand Obama a HUGE WIN in an election year, upholding Obama's greatest legislative acheivement, by voting on the merits of the case.
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Florida
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Would be interesting to hear the arguments, but I also thing they will vote in favor for it.
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
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I think portions of it will be thrown out (overturned)

Nita
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
SCOTUS to rule on Obamacare this week- any predictions?
Imagine that. They'll rule before hearing one word of argument.

I can't see them doing anything other than throwing the whole thing out. If they void the mandate, the whole thing falls apart.

The plaintiffs (many of them) will be arguing from quite a few difference aspects of the law.

Coercion to the states (regarding Medicaid funding), the commerce clause, but this one, having to do with contract law, is very interesting;

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...mWS_story.html

Quote:
The brief, the primary authors of which are the IJ’s Elizabeth Price Foley and Steve Simpson, says that Obamacare is the first time Congress has used its power to regulate commerce to produce a law “from which there is no escape.” And “coercing commercial transactions” — compelling individuals to sign contracts with insurance companies — “is antithetical to the foundational principle of mutual assent that permeated the common law of contracts at the time of the founding and continues to do so today.”
There are many avenues the plaintiffs are taking in opposing obamacare.

Whatever happens, it will be a lose-lose for the democrats.
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:45 AM
 
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I also think the arguments would be fascinating to hear, and I think it will pass muster 5-4, although I admit I could also see it losing by the same 5-4 margin.

Also, I would note that even though they're hearing arguments this week, they won't actually rule until somewhere around September or October, after they return from summer recess.
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Florida
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Imagine that. They'll rule before hearing one word of argument.
Read the first sentence of the OP again.
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:48 AM
 
289 posts, read 270,168 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Imagine that. They'll rule before hearing one word of argument.
Clarence Thomas already does this, why not let the rest of the court?
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Texas
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They're going to be hearing arguments this week, OP, but they won't be issuing a ruling until June. Try and get your facts right.

I think it will be a 5-4 decision and I think it's a toss-up which way it will go. It all depends on how Kennedy rules.

I think if it is upheld it may hurt, not help, Obama's chances for re-election because so many people disapprove of it and they will see that electing a new president would be necessary for it to be repealed.
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Old 03-24-2012, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
The Roberts court will (no doubt reluctantly) hand Obama a HUGE WIN in an election year, upholding Obama's greatest legislative acheivement, by voting on the merits of the case.
If your prediction comes true, I don't think you realize just how that would electrify the electorate...against obama and FOR the man who has promised to repeal it.

You see, even after two years, obamacare is more unpopular now than ever before.

In the latest WaPo/ABC poll, 67% want it repealed, in part or in total.

If SCOTUS strikes it down...what an issue for the GOP. Here we have the dems/obama, who spent a year shoving it down our throats with a party line vote, budget lies and gimmicks, backroom deals, finding out for the last two years all the promises made were BS and THEN find out what they did was unconstitutional......omg, the ads will be great.

IF SCOTUS upholds it, the only way to nullify the law that so many abhor would be to elect the candidate that promises to repeal and give the Senate to the GOP.

Obamacare is the gift that gave the dems an historic shellacking in 2010.

You think 2012 will be any different?
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Old 03-24-2012, 10:02 AM
 
31,385 posts, read 32,214,401 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
IF SCOTUS upholds it, the only way to nullify the law that so many abhor would be to elect the candidate that promises to repeal and give the Senate to the GOP.
Like former governor Romneycare. That will be fun to watch.

Quote:
Obamacare is the gift that gave the dems an historic shellacking in 2010.
Midterms to do that.

Quote:
You think 2012 will be any different?
Yep.
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