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Some of his many predictions:
It's so ominous to see signs that America's housing market is approaching the final, feverish stages of a speculative bubble. - May 2005
Quote:
2004
THE POPULAR PRESS is full of speculation that the United States, as well as other countries, is in a "housing bubble" that is about to burst. Barrons, Money magazine, and The Economist have all run recent feature stories about the irrational run-up in home prices and the potential for a crash. The Economist has published a series of articles with titles like "Castles in Hot Air," "House of Cards," "Bubble Trouble," and "Betting the House."
The consequences of such a fall in home prices would be severe for some homeowners. Given the high average level of personal debt relative to personal income, an increase in bankruptcies is likely. Such an increase could potentially worsen consumer confidence, creating a renewed interest in replenishing savings.
I see the following scenario: a weak stimulus plan, perhaps even weaker than what we’re talking about now, is crafted to win those extra GOP votes. The plan limits the rise in unemployment, but things are still pretty bad, with the rate peaking at something like 9 percent and coming down only slowly. And then Mitch McConnell says “See, government spending doesn’t work.”
This is what Mitch McConnell said on Oct. 11, 2011:
Quote:
“The President’s first stimulus was a legislative and economic catastrophe,”... There’s really only one thing you need to know about the first stimulus to oppose this second one, and it’s this: $825 billion later, there are 1.5 million fewer jobs in this country than there were when the first stimulus was signed. That’s the clearest proof it was a monstrous failure. And it’s the surest proof we have that those who support this second stimulus are not doing so to create jobs… Why on earth would you support an approach that we already know won’t work?”
Moreover, Krugman got the numbers right in that January 6, 2009, posting.
This is what Mitch McConnell said on Oct. 11, 2011:
Moreover, Krugman got the numbers right in that January 6, 2009, posting.
Mitch McConnell is a politician. Are you serioulsy comparing Krumans prediction record with Republican politicians? Is that going to prove that Krugman is not a joke?
Not only that, but he predicted the crisis would happen in 2006.
He didn't predict it would happen in 2006. This is what he said in December 2006:
"Right now, statistical models ... give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. ... The odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year." - Paul Krugman, December 2006
He didn't predict it would happen in 2006. This is what he said in December 2006:
"Right now, statistical models ... give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. ... The odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year." - Paul Krugman, December 2006
And this country entered recession in Dec 2007.
Case-Shiller was pointing to outrageous prices on housing in many markets and Shiller himself was stating that the Dot-Com bubble exodus was leading to a more stable market boom, housing, as early as 2000.
Krugman was simply parroting the growing warnings from people much smarter than him and if you were smart you'd be going to the raw data to analyze things like that instead of parroting a parrot.
Not only that, but he predicted the crisis would happen in 2006.
Mitch McConnell is a politician. Are you serioulsy comparing Krumans prediction record with Republican politicians? Is that going to prove that Krugman is not a joke?
You missed the entire point. Not only did Krugman accurately predict the effect of the stimulus based upon its size but he accurately predicted GOP talking points.
Case-Shiller was pointing to outrageous prices on housing in many markets and Shiller himself was stating that the Dot-Com bubble exodus was leading to a more stable market boom, housing, as early as 2000.
I did too, but around 2001-2002. And I'm today predicting another quick pop bubble if Romney makes it to the White House. Book mark this statement of mine.
But, none of that can, in any way, be used to discredit Krugman. You might hate it, but that is a different issue.
Quote:
Krugman was simply parroting the growing warnings from people much smarter than him and if you were smart you'd be going to the raw data to analyze things like that instead of parroting a parrot.
You know what they say about the phone game.
The same could be said of EVERYBODY, including those you feel obligated to "trust".
Anything Krugman said you disagree with? Now talk about that, and we can have a discussion.
We've all heard the old saying. "If the only tool you have is a hammer, the whole world becomes a nail".
So Krugman's "hammer" is "More Government Spending". His solution to every problem is to make Big Government even bigger. His explanation for every recession is that Big Government didn't spend enough.
So now he's been blaming the Euro problems on "austerity". Now most of us would think that "austerity" means reducing government spending. But not Krugman. Increased government spending is still "austerity" in his book since the spending pattern changed.
Check out this chart..... all of the countries except Greece have increased government spending since 2008.
Just add this to the growing list of Krugman's misleading columns.
He didn't predict it would happen in 2006. This is what he said in December 2006:
"Right now, statistical models ... give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. ... The odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year." - Paul Krugman, December 2006
And this country entered recession in Dec 2007.
Like I said, I can predict correctly too. Just make a lot of vague predictions and then claim they are correct.
"odds are 2 to1 that so and so will happen".... LOL.... That's like saying it might rain next week.
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