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e governant is likely only able to control certain areas of the country. History shows this as British in empire days couldn't and i recent tmes the russian couldn't.The middle east tho has a number of countries like that as well as others aroud the world.Some are constantly fighting one rebell group or another .
One thing that seldom if ever, gets the attention it deserves, is the fact of tribal theologies in the more rural regions of the middle east. The western press refers to these throwback tribesman as "Muslim" but the truth is they are not the same as the urban Muslims who have, for the most part, connected to the mainstream way of modern life. Thinking that these people want a kind of theocratic autonomy means we'd be overlooking the obvious, and that would be the fact of their second class citizenship in their own country.
Like so many of their fundamentalist Christian cousins here in America they are estranged from the norms of the greater society. This separateness is at the bottom of a lot of their resentment toward their government and those who support it. The U.S. involvement is simply another ploy on the part of American leadership to further U.S. hegemony in the region. I know that the western media is in full battle dress reporting their sloppy one sided observations of events in the middle east, after all, it's a war fought for the furtherance of U.S. "full spectrum dominance", a theory that was concocted by the PNAC group that was so well represented by think tank types loyal to the notion of American supremacy.
The region will never be totally controlled by western client state status similar to what is enjoyed by the ruling class of the Emirates, South Korea, Mexico, and other nations overshadowed by the Americanization of their sovereignty. The so called Taliban, a loosely formed group of backward zealots dying for local control, will be around a long time. Our country has little concern beyond that of the oil that lies under the ground in these backwater burgs, the people, well, they're just another pesky annoyance to U.S. plans for strategic accumulation of resources.
I rather doubt the Taliban will take the country back over as it did in the 80's. They really made a mess of things then.
I think it's more likely that Afghanistan will return to being tribal regions ruled by warlords once more. The country is always the most stable under this system, and it's the oldest of all there. We can expect to see regional feuds when we leave as the warlords establish and hold (or lose) their territories, but eventually, the strongest win out, hold a Jurga, and settle things between themselves, leaving Kabul as the nominal national government.
The 'mayor of Kabul' term is apt enough; in the past, Kabul has always been the brokerage house for the warlords, the place where foreigners go for licenses and permits and where the warlords go to make all the decisions as to which infidel gets what.
As always, the tribal regions next to the Pakistan border will do things on their own. It is so hard to travel from there to Kabul as to make any kind of centralized government control impossible.
The Karzai government is not stable and it is also full of graft and payoffs. There is no way it can handle the country when NATO pulls out. There is no telling what Dostum and those of his ilk will do.
There are many, many Taliban sympathizers in the country. That is particularly true of the Pashtun tribal folk. Karzai is a Pashtun and even he was (and probably still is) a Talib Wahabi apologist.
I predict that the Talibs will take over within a month of our pull out.
Russia and China will not have anything to do with Afghanistan. It was Russia's Vietnam and China is too busy taking over the money/credit of the world.
To be honest, I am fond of Afghanistan as it was in the 60s and 70s. But I am sick to death of our military and NGO people being slaughtered over there. Come on home, folks.
Everything goes back to the way it was. Peacekeepers are being killed by the Afgan police and others who pretend to be our friends and this will increase with time.. This 3rd world country does not want justice or fairness or equal rights and opportunity for all it's citizens. They are busy sharpening their knives, just waiting to attack each other and go back to their beloved opium production, which apparently is ok under their religion. Then they can all get together and attack their women who want to go to school and have control over their own bodies, and maybe even want to be treated as equals. All in the name of religion!
Peace be on you. What will be the after-role of Russia and China and other Central asian countries?
IMO I think that most of the central Asian countries are too busy with their own issues. Any advice, most of it is my personal opinion, is that two countries need to be watched. Saudi Arabia, home of the Wahabis, and Pakistan, who thanks to the late Mrs. Bhutto, pesters Afghanistan continuously. I'm blaming the Pakistan government and not the people of Pakistan. The ISI reeks. AND, they have nukes.
To be honest, I am fond of Afghanistan as it was in the 60s and 70s. But I am sick to death of our military and NGO people being slaughtered over there. Come on home, folks.
Did you visit in that era? I saw a set of photographs recently showing what Afghanistan and the people there looked like prior to the civil war and Russian invasion at the end of the 1970s and it's amazing to someone of my generation that Afghanistan at one point actually looked like a fairly stable place to travel to and interesting destination. The Afghanistan of the 1960s looked a world away from the place it's become today.
These days however--it's sad, but I can't see much hope for that place.
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