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View Poll Results: Why do 97% of scientific studies agree that climate change is manmade?
1. Consipracy 22 41.51%
2. Scientists are not as smart as average Joe 5 9.43%
3. Scientists don't believe in the bible or the rapture 26 49.06%
Voters: 53. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-20-2013, 11:29 PM
 
6,331 posts, read 4,724,660 times
Reputation: 1640

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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
Not according to the US forest Service:
1600 is not the 19th century
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Old 05-20-2013, 11:32 PM
 
41,823 posts, read 44,909,646 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Draper View Post
1600 is not the 19th century
Don, pre european is.
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Old 05-21-2013, 02:20 AM
 
3,846 posts, read 2,125,095 times
Reputation: 390
Default Get your tin toil hat on, why do 97% of scientific studies agree that current climate change is manmade?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Draper View Post
Care to elaborate, public are not science either, whatever that means, why is there a discrepancy with the general public?
The general public is variously dispersed from "peer control" enough so that when it looks up in the sky, it can observe and announce. Sort of like Galileo with his telescope, but minus the telescope.

Peer-controlled scientists, however, are allowed only as a control, to stay within the control of the group.

Others can consider extraneous factors outside the control of kweered peerage.

The control group is not allowed to recognize and factor the effects of HAARP or chemtrails.

Try to think of HAARP as a giant butterfly, flapping its wings in Alaska.
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Old 05-21-2013, 06:04 AM
 
Location: US
742 posts, read 616,036 times
Reputation: 212
4.Manbearpig
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Old 05-21-2013, 07:00 AM
 
Location: New Orleans, La. USA
6,250 posts, read 3,175,931 times
Reputation: 2467
Quote:
Originally Posted by 20yrsinBranson View Post
Just follow the money. There's your answer.

20yrsinBranson
Are you on crack ??

Fox news and Rush radio say "global warming is not happening" as a favor for corporations like ExxonMobile.

All the scientists that appear on Fox news and Rush radio are being paid by ExxonMobile.

9 out of 10 top climate change deniers linked with Exxon Mobil

Scientists' Report Documents ExxonMobil's Tobacco-like Disinformation Campaign on Global Warming Science | Union of Concerned Scientists
Exxon-funded group
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Old 05-21-2013, 07:23 AM
 
782 posts, read 992,711 times
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There was a study of all publiched peer reviewed papers on climate change published between 1994 and 2004. There were 11,994 papers written, representing the combined work of almost 30,000 scientists. Of those nearly 12k papers, almost 4,000 of them took a position on whether or not climate change was influenced or caused by human activity. Of those 4,000 papers 97.1% said yes, 2.2% were unsure and only 0.7% denied human causation or significant influence.
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:01 AM
 
13,055 posts, read 11,985,172 times
Reputation: 2612
Quote:
Originally Posted by texantodd View Post
There was a study of all publiched peer reviewed papers on climate change published between 1994 and 2004. There were 11,994 papers written, representing the combined work of almost 30,000 scientists. Of those nearly 12k papers, almost 4,000 of them took a position on whether or not climate change was influenced or caused by human activity. Of those 4,000 papers 97.1% said yes, 2.2% were unsure and only 0.7% denied human causation or significant influence.

Not so much texantodd, the problem is with their selection. There were 7 categories they used to establish this position. The problem is that the top 3 categories were used to establish a definitive support for strongly influenced human causation when the top 3 according to their criteria were not as such.

The majority of the responses fall within category 3.

Quote:
3. Implicit Endorsement of AGW

3.1 Mitigation papers that examine GHG emission reduction or carbon sequestration, linking it to climate change

3.2 Climate modelling papers that talks about emission scenarios and subsequent warming or other climate impacts from increased CO2 in the abstract implicitly endorse that GHGs cause warming

3.3 Paleoclimate papers that link CO2 to climate change
3.4 Papers about climate policy (specifically mitigation of GHG emissions) unless they restrict their focus to non-GHG issues like CFC emissions in which case neutral

3.5 Modelling of increased CO2 effect on regional temperature – not explicitly saying global warming but implying warming from CO2

3.6 Endorsement of IPCC findings is usually an implicit endorsement. (updated this so it is more than just reference to IPCC but actual endorsement of IPCC)
The trick in this is the same old hat trick that has been done in the past. That is, they blur the line of significance and relevance. This then takes the meaning of a given paper in such a category down specifically to the paper itself and what they were actually implying. Layers of misdirection here.


Here is a clear write up on what they did. The method is reproducible.

Cook’s survey not only meaningless but also misleading

Basically... it is another case of "lies, damn lies, and statistics".
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:07 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,478 posts, read 54,290,784 times
Reputation: 24736
Maybe because mankind started burning the place down 8,000 years ago and prevented the return of the cold phase of the Ice Age climate pattern?

BTY - fine choice of options in the poll. All of them are wrong.
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:44 AM
 
13,055 posts, read 11,985,172 times
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Interesting that some of the scientists who are claimed by cooks paper to support a given conclusion have a different thing to say about that:

Cook’s 97% consensus study falsely classifies scientists’ papers according to the scientists that published them

Quote:
Is this an accurate representation of your paper?

Idso: “That is not an accurate representation of my paper. The papers examined how the rise in atmospheric CO2 could be inducing a phase advance in the spring portion of the atmosphere’s seasonal CO2 cycle. Other literature had previously claimed a measured advance was due to rising temperatures, but we showed that it was quite likely the rise in atmospheric CO2 itself was responsible for the lion’s share of the change. It would be incorrect to claim that our paper was an endorsement of CO2-induced global warming.”


Scafetta: “Cook et al. (2013) is based on a strawman argument because it does not correctly define the IPCC AGW theory, which is NOT that human emissions have contributed 50%+ of the global warming since 1900 but that almost 90-100% of the observed global warming was induced by human emission.

What my papers say is that the IPCC view is erroneous because about 40-70% of the global warming observed from 1900 to 2000 was induced by the sun. This implies that the true climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling is likely around 1.5 C or less, and that the 21st century projections must be reduced by at least a factor of 2 or more. Of that the sun contributed (more or less) as much as the anthropogenic forcings.


Shaviv: “Nope… it is not an accurate representation. The paper shows that if cosmic rays are included in empirical climate sensitivity analyses, then one finds that different time scales consistently give a low climate sensitiviity. i.e., it supports the idea that cosmic rays affect the climate and that climate sensitivity is low. This means that part of the 20th century should be attributed to the increased solar activity and that 21st century warming under a business as usual scenario should be low (about 1°C).

I couldn’t write these things more explicitly in the paper because of the refereeing, however, you don’t have to be a genius to reach these conclusions from the paper.
I thought the bold was a bit amusing.
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Old 05-21-2013, 12:32 PM
 
8,481 posts, read 6,285,992 times
Reputation: 1115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomander View Post
Not so much texantodd, the problem is with their selection. There were 7 categories they used to establish this position. The problem is that the top 3 categories were used to establish a definitive support for strongly influenced human causation when the top 3 according to their criteria were not as such.

The majority of the responses fall within category 3.



The trick in this is the same old hat trick that has been done in the past. That is, they blur the line of significance and relevance. This then takes the meaning of a given paper in such a category down specifically to the paper itself and what they were actually implying. Layers of misdirection here.


Here is a clear write up on what they did. The method is reproducible.

Cook’s survey not only meaningless but also misleading

Basically... it is another case of "lies, damn lies, and statistics".
The break down I did earlier, including the supp data shows other issues and questions with this "study". As I said it is filled with subjectivity and ambiguity. It's funny that the whole public vs scientist thing is being brought up though because I see nothing scientific here. Wasn't it also described as a "citizen science" project?
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