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"Population projections in the United States are now quite intimately involved with what is happening demographically in Mexico, and Mexico's CONAPO (National Council on Population) recently completed a set of projections for Mexico (at the state level) out to 2050, building on the new data from the 2010 census. They project an increase from the 114 million counted in the 2010 census to 137 million by 2050, with the population essentially leveling off at that number by about 2040."
"They project increases in life expectancy (from the current 77 years for women to 82 in 2050), coupled with declines in fertility (from the current TFR of 2.2 down to 2.1). Furthermore, the total number of births each year in Mexico is projected to stay very close to its current level of 2.2 million per year (dropping a bit to 1.9 million per year by 2050). This would clearly suggest that the need for young people in Mexico to migrate to the US because of the pressure of population growth on resources is forecast to recede into oblivion. But, that doesn't mean that CONAPO projects no migration. As we know, there will continue to be a demand for workers in the US to pay for the increasingly older population and CONAPO takes this into account, projecting that the net annual number of international emigrants from Mexico will rise from its current level of about 300,000 per year (a drop from the average of 500,000 in the previous decade) to about 600,000 per year by 2019 and staying at that level until 2050. That annual exodus is, of course, part of the explanation for Mexico's projected slow growth."
"So far, CONAPO has published only summary data, and not age-sex structures. We can hope that these details will come along soon, prodded by members of SOMEDE (the Mexican Demographic Society) from whom I just learned about the new projections."
Why would they immigrate If their economy is growing, and population was leveling out? Does this make sense to you? It doesn't to me. Wouldn't they stay in their country? Where do you predict this will go?
"Population projections in the United States are now quite intimately involved with what is happening demographically in Mexico, and Mexico's CONAPO (National Council on Population) recently completed a set of projections for Mexico (at the state level) out to 2050, building on the new data from the 2010 census. They project an increase from the 114 million counted in the 2010 census to 137 million by 2050, with the population essentially leveling off at that number by about 2040."
"They project increases in life expectancy (from the current 77 years for women to 82 in 2050), coupled with declines in fertility (from the current TFR of 2.2 down to 2.1). Furthermore, the total number of births each year in Mexico is projected to stay very close to its current level of 2.2 million per year (dropping a bit to 1.9 million per year by 2050). This would clearly suggest that the need for young people in Mexico to migrate to the US because of the pressure of population growth on resources is forecast to recede into oblivion. But, that doesn't mean that CONAPO projects no migration. As we know, there will continue to be a demand for workers in the US to pay for the increasingly older population and CONAPO takes this into account, projecting that the net annual number of international emigrants from Mexico will rise from its current level of about 300,000 per year (a drop from the average of 500,000 in the previous decade) to about 600,000 per year by 2019 and staying at that level until 2050. That annual exodus is, of course, part of the explanation for Mexico's projected slow growth."
"So far, CONAPO has published only summary data, and not age-sex structures. We can hope that these details will come along soon, prodded by members of SOMEDE (the Mexican Demographic Society) from whom I just learned about the new projections."
Why would they immigrate If their economy is growing, and population was leveling out? Does this make sense to you? It doesn't to me. Wouldn't they stay in their country? Where do you predict this will go?
If Mexican jobs paid half as much as US jobs did, and crime was a lot lower, there wouldn't be all this migration from Mexico up here. The US needs to do what it has never done, except during FDR's presidency, and that is to support labor. Mexico needs inspiration from the US to fight for better labor conditions. The race to the bottom mentality (or trickle down as it is also known) that wingnuts say is the key to success is not working in Mexico. What good is having a low unemployment rate when you still only make enough money to live in a house that's falling apart and driving a car or pickup that's 20 years old or more? Have you guys streetviewed many of the neighborhoods across Mexico? That's the price of trickle down in Mexico
If Mexican jobs paid half as much as US jobs did, and crime was a lot lower, there wouldn't be all this migration from Mexico up here. The US needs to do what it has never done, except during FDR's presidency, and that is to support labor. Mexico needs inspiration from the US to fight for better labor conditions. The race to the bottom mentality (or trickle down as it is also known) that wingnuts say is the key to success is not working in Mexico. What good is having a low unemployment rate when you still only make enough money to live in a house that's falling apart and driving a car or pickup that's 20 years old or more? Have you guys streetviewed many of the neighborhoods across Mexico? That's the price of trickle down in Mexico
GDP there will go up in the future. But so will americas. What will be the effect of that on immigration?
Yes, legal and illegal, or perhaps you think I should have used 'emmigration'?
Actually, legal immigration is "immigration". Illegal immigration is not in the true sense of the word.
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