Why spanish will be our second language in the far future. (generations, Mexicans)

[Citykid55]

I have calculated multiple different things with the population many times, and I usually get that spanish will be spoken by around 8% of the population in 2050, mostly immigrants and second, third, and fourth gen Latinos. Remember, Latinos will be 31% of the American population. And around 25% of the Latino population will speak it vs 75% today.

[lionsgators]

why are you obsessed with this topic? you only start threads about speaking spanish.

[Packard fan]

Spanish: no. It's nothing except in LatAm and Spain.

[Citykid55]

Senate Immigration Bill Would Bring Millions Of Legal Immigrants To American Workforce

"Illegal immigration across the border with Mexico would slow, but legal immigration would increase markedly"

[theunbrainwashed]

It's not gonna be second language anything. When LatAm reaches developed status and has a quality of life similar to at least southern Europe, I suspect many will eventually start flocking back.

[Smoke_Jaguar4]

Originally Posted by Citykid55

I have calculated multiple different things with the population many times, and I usually get that spanish will be spoken by around 8% of the population in 2050, mostly immigrants and second, third, and fourth gen Latinos. Remember, Latinos will be 31% of the American population. And around 25% of the Latino population will speak it vs 75% today.

By the same logic, Italian and Gaelic should be common languages today.

Hispanics will follow the same immigration pattern as previous waves, and by the 3rd generation they should be almost completely assimilated. By then I'm sure that Joe Bob Martinez will be complaining about all these South Asian immigrants and how they are invading OUR country and stealing all OUR jobs.

[theunbrainwashed]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

By the same logic, Italian and Gaelic should be majority languages as well.

Hispanics will follow the same immigration pattern as previous waves, and by the 3rd generation they should be almost completely assimilated. By then I'm sure that Joe Bob Martinez will be complaining about all these South Asian immigrants and how they are invading OUR country and stealing all OUR jobs.

I agree. Seems like to me LatAm immigration is slowing down, even from Mexico, and being replaced by immigrants from Vietnam to the Philippines. My area has seen a small influx of Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Filipino immigrants in recent times. I got angry, offended, and insecure that they were speaking their jungle monkey language at first, then a smile crept across my face as I accepted that at least it wasn't Spanish because we know those annoying brown Mexicans demand all Americans speak Spanish and the entire USA be converted to a Spanish speaking nation

[Citykid55]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

By the same logic, Italian and Gaelic should be common languages today.

Hispanics will follow the same immigration pattern as previous waves, and by the 3rd generation they should be almost completely assimilated. By then I'm sure that Joe Bob Martinez will be complaining about all these South Asian immigrants and how they are invading OUR country and stealing all OUR jobs.

I'll prove you wrong

According to the pew research center: 18,693,720 people in the United States are foreign born hispanics. And in 2000, the birthrate for foreign born hispanics is 3.5, but it probably lowered, to ill guess 2.5 And if we multiply 18,693,720 by 2.5, we get 46,734,300. And if 47% of those speak spanish, we get the estimate that 21,965,121 second generation hispanics speak spanish.now onto the birth rate of second generation hispanics,we have no data on that, but since the birthrate of the us population is 1.9, we'lll multiply 46,734,300 by 1.9, we get 88,795,170. And since 22% of them speak spanish, the number of third generation hispanics that speak spanish would be 19,534,937. Add the second generation and third generation hispanic spanish speaking population together, and we get the estimate that 41,500,058 second and third generation hispanics speak spanish in the future. So, this time I used actual birth rates, and foreign born population.

Sources.

Pew Hispanic Center - Chronicling Latinos Diverse Experiences in a Changing America
http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/22.pdf
U.S. Birth Rate Not High Enough To Keep Population Stable

[Citykid55]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

By the same logic, Italian and Gaelic should be common languages today.

Hispanics will follow the same immigration pattern as previous waves, and by the 3rd generation they should be almost completely assimilated. By then I'm sure that Joe Bob Martinez will be complaining about all these South Asian immigrants and how they are invading OUR country and stealing all OUR jobs.

Well, lets look at Gaelic and Italian immigration.

Immigration from Italy:

"From 1880 to 1920, an estimated 4 million Italian immigrants arrived in the United States, the majority from 1900 to 1914."

"Italian speakers in the Usa:
1910a
1,365,110

1920a
1,624,998

1930a
1,808,289

1940a
1,561,100

1960a
1,277,585

1970a
1,025,994

1980[1]
1,618,344

1990[2]
1,308,648

2000[3]
1,008,370"

Irish immigration:

Total number of immigrants between 1820 and 2004: 4,787,580

And plus, the Irish speak English. And Italian speakers have states at a constant pretty much.

[Oldglory]

Originally Posted by Citykid55

I have calculated multiple different things with the population many times, and I usually get that spanish will be spoken by around 8% of the population in 2050, mostly immigrants and second, third, and fourth gen Latinos. Remember, Latinos will be 31% of the American population. And around 25% of the Latino population will speak it vs 75% today.

Are you claiming that Hispanics will still not assimilate by 2050? 8% of the population vs 92%? Do the math, guy. How does that equate to Spanish becoming our second language? I expect that many Hispanics will pass Spanish down through the generations but we are told that most Hispanic-Americans know English and are assimilating so why would the rest of us have to learn Spanish or acknowledge it a our second language when we would have our common and national de facto language of English to communicate with each other in? Hispanics refusing to speak English unless they have to is another subject and I am well aware of that phenomenom but that certainly shouldn't be reason to make Spanish our second language.