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The BLS predicted the participation rate would drop back in 2006. Last year they came out with forecasts to 2020 which is expecting it to continue to drop. JPM found that 70% of the drop is attributable to an aging population, so even if we had a booming economy the participation rate would still be facing downward pressure.
But at the other end we have the youth entering the job market.
And there are more youth entering then people turning 65.
10,000 a day turn 65
13,000 a day turn 18
Are they all going to college and not entering the workforce and not being counted ?
That is exactly what people were saying during the horrible years under president Carter. "Can't we just accept the fact that our best days are behind us?" During the 1970s Carter's policies and his malaise speeches tried to get Americans to accept a future with diminished expectations.
Obama is working against the economy, his policies are turning a rough patch in the road into a bottomless pit of economic despair.
After Carter though we had our "jobless recoveries" and asset bubbles.
It was a false sense of prosperity.
It was all built on debt.
But at the other end we have the youth entering the job market.
And there are more youth entering then people turning 65.
10,000 a day turn 65
13,000 a day turn 18
Are they all going to college and not entering the workforce and not being counted ?
How do you explain that ?
They aren't all in college, but they are counted even if they are enrolled in school.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lycos679
The participation rate was discussed at length in another thread, feel free to read it. No matter how you slice the data the older 50+ cohort grew faster than the younger crowd did and will continue to put downward pressure on the participation rate.
I addressed this in another thread.
"It doesn't sound like you want to accept anything that doesn't support your view. Here is a 2012 BLS prediction to 2020. Looking at '00-'10, the 16-24 yr old group grew by 1%, but the 55+ grew by 2.6%. The 18-24 yr old group is associated with higher learning though, so if we look at the 25-54 age group the growth rate was only .4%. From '00-' 10 the 55+ population grew by 17K and the under 55 group grew by 8K, in thousands of course, and if you look at the 25-54 cohort that group only grew by 5K.
America is getting older at a faster rate than we have young people entering their best working years."
Unemoyment has only dropped .5% since Obama took office!.....
Over the last 56 months – since Barack Obama became president in January 2009 --unemployment has dropped 0.5%, from a rate of 7.8% in January 2009 down to 7.3% in August 2013, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
During those 56 months, the unemployment rate rose substantially to a high of 10% in October 2009 and stayed in the high 9% range for 2010 and much of 2011. In January 2012, the unemployment rate was 8.3%. It crept down to 7.8% in December 2012, exactly what it was when Obama was inaugurated (and George W. Bush left office).
A record 90,473,000 of Americans have given up finding a job and left the work force completely!
The number of Americans who are 16 years or older and who have decided not to participate in the nation's labor force has pushed past 90,000,000 for the first time, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The BLS counts a person as participating in the labor force if they are 16 years or older and either have a job or have actively sought a job in the last four weeks. A person is not participating in the labor force if they are 16 or older and have not sought a job in the last four weeks.
In July, according to BLS, 89,957,000 Americans did not participate in the labor force. In August, that climbed to 90,473,000--a one month increase of 516,000.
Out of every group listed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report (age, gender, race, etc.) the unemployment rate among blacks increased the most–almost a full half-point, from 12.6% to 13%.
But at the other end we have the youth entering the job market.
And there are more youth entering then people turning 65.
10,000 a day turn 65
13,000 a day turn 18
Are they all going to college and not entering the workforce and not being counted ?
How do you explain that ?
Once you turn 16, unless you, die, join the military or are incarcerated, you are counted in the denominator portion of the Labor Force Participation Rate. This includes those over 65 you have retired.
Assume the following:
-Every 65 year old retires.
-13,000 a day turn 16.
-Every 18 joins the labor force.
Then each day the denominator will increase by 13,000 and the numerator increase by 3000. This will result in the Labor Participation Rate decreasing each day.
With 300,000 people dropping out of the work force every month [workforce participation 63%, lowest in 35 years] and no longer being counted, the unemployment rate should drop enough just around next year election.
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