Is the Peoples Republic of China fulfilling Marx's prophecy? (middle east, enemies, Afghanistan)

[GregW]

We are becoming like the Chinese and they are becoming like the US as business leaders of both countries realize the benefits of government backing for selected industries. This is great for the chosen industries but devastating in the long run because of misallocated capital. When the Italians and Germans did it 70 years ago it was called fascism. It still is no matter who is doing it.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by migee

All your posts are good...There is much to discuss about the situation.

But, are we in a dangerous situation?

One of you mentioned steel (I apologize for not remembering your name - I'm in the middle of a work day and taking a quick break) - But, this is a good point...

What would happen if in the next week or two, there was another far worse incident than when they took our spy plane?

What if there was a sudden crisis between our two countries? And, trade was interrupted...

What would happen?

Spy plane? I don't think another spy plane incident would do all that much to hinder trade. Now a accident or misunderstanding between the U.S. and China over Taiwan now that a different story. That would Fook up everything for awhile. But here's where America makes out where china won't. We still have Mexico and other central and south american labor market we can tap. Yeah the coroprations may have to pay more for labor but the train would keep-a-chugging. And they would just past off the extra cost to the consumer anyways and the new prices of products would not go up signifigantly.

But that's just may opinion

[Flieger]

Don't forget the fact that China's a big owner of U.S. Government bonds/treasuries worth hundreds of Billions and they also hold more than a Trillion (I think) of U.S. Dollar reserves. Dropping them would be disastrous for the U.S. economy and the biggest losers would be the American people. This has by the media been described as China's "Nuclear Option".

This is covered in Lou Dobbs Tonight's Red Storm Rising:


YouTube - china threats US

And not only is Communist China emerging as an economic Super Power next to the U.S., it's also started investing in its military power. Red Flags on the Rise, indeed...

[Mark S.]

China is still very much an oppressive regime. But it isn't Communist any more. The government may still say they are communist, but in practice they are becoming more and more capitalist every day.

[Flieger]

Originally Posted by Mark S.

China is still very much an oppressive regime. But it isn't Communist any more. The government may still say they are communist, but in practice they are becoming more and more capitalist every day.

Well, they had a turn to a more market-oriented (Capitalist) economy in the 1970's (and it's been growing ever since), but that still doesn't make them a Capitalist country. I'd say their economy is a so-called mixed economy (not centrally planned nor Capitalist according to Western standards). IMO, the nation is still in practice a Communist dictatorship.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by Flieger

Don't forget the fact that China's a big owner of U.S. Government bonds/treasuries worth hundreds of Billions and they also hold more than a Trillion (I think) of U.S. Dollar reserves. Dropping them would be disastrous for the U.S. economy and the biggest losers would be the American people. This has by the media been described as China's "Nuclear Option".

This is covered in Lou Dobbs Tonight's Red Storm Rising:


YouTube - china threats US

And not only is Communist China emerging as an economic Super Power next to the U.S., it's also started investing in its military power. Red Flags on the Rise, indeed...

You have a very good point. So let me ask you if china start rumbling over taiwan. What do we do?

[Flieger]

Originally Posted by baystater

You have a very good point. So let me ask you if china start rumbling over taiwan. What do we do?

Well, IMO, it'd be in your national interests not to interfere. What I mean is, China can do a lot of harm to you in many ways if you do indeed interfere, or you could perhaps to it secretly through the CIA (eg. fund/train anti-Chinese rebels), sort of like in the Cold War days when U.S. supported anti-Soviet rebels in Afghanistan and how U.S. (read: CIA) is currently funding and training anti-Iranian Kurdish rebels (according to a report by journalist Seymour Hersh). However, that won't stop the Chinese, it'd just hurt 'em.

U.S. is already bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and we all know about the Bush Administration's desire for a regime-change in Iran (which'll have to involve a preemptive [nuclear?] attack and sooner or later a ground-force invasion to fight the regular Iranian army troops and the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard).

China is currently looking into the possibility of developing an aircraft carrier and they're doing it jointly with Russia. China obviously want to extend their fleet and they've already acquired, eg. top-level nuclear submarines from Russia. This future fleet of China could maybe (just "maybe") challenge the U.S. fleet, which's currently superior to any other, and block out American warships trying to enter Chinese-Taiwanese waters.

I don't believe China would do anything so drastic as to basically crush the U.S. economy, but I still believe they can and will do you much harm if you do interfere. The ball is in their hands, you know.

Besides, do you think the American people would feel sympathetic to American interference? Most people, as far as I know, don't even no longer approve of the Iraq War.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by Flieger

Well, IMO, it'd be in your national interests not to interfere. What I mean is, China can do a lot of harm to you in many ways if you do indeed interfere, or you could perhaps to it secretly through the CIA (eg. fund/train anti-Chinese rebels), sort of like in the Cold War days when U.S. supported anti-Soviet rebels in Afghanistan and how U.S. (read: CIA) is currently funding and training anti-Iranian Kurdish rebels (according to a report by journalist Seymour Hersh). However, that won't stop the Chinese, it'd just hurt 'em.

U.S. is already bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and we all know about the Bush Administration's desire for a regime-change in Iran (which'll have to involve a preemptive [nuclear?] attack and sooner or later a ground-force invasion to fight the regular Iranian army troops and the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard).

China is currently looking into the possibility of developing an aircraft carrier and they're doing it jointly with Russia. China obviously want to extend their fleet and they've already acquired, eg. top-level nuclear submarines from Russia. This future fleet of China could maybe (just "maybe") challenge the U.S. fleet, which's currently superior to any other, and block out American warships trying to enter Chinese-Taiwanese waters.

I don't believe China would do anything so drastic as to basically crush the U.S. economy, but I still believe they can and will do you much harm if you do interfere. The ball is in their hands, you know.

Besides, do you think the American people would feel sympathetic to American interference? Most people, as far as I know, don't even no longer approve of the Iraq War.

The only reason I'm concerned about Taiwan in particular is our long standing as allies just like we are with south Korea. I not sure if we can abandoned Taiwan.

And your right every thing you say is true about the military build up and that have some us over a financial barrel right now.

As for the CIA cloak and dagger stuff with Taiwan. It's not going to work. I know this sounds off. But with the INTERNET now-a-days secret aren't hidden anymore. Maybe ignored but not hidden. If we tried that route we would be dragged in regardless.

As with not hurting U.S. economically. Well that is a temporally thing. China is in the process to trying to make business ties with other countries so they are not as dependent on the U.S. in the future. So don't feel too safe. Granted we currently are their biggest customer.



Hmmmmm................I wonder if in 20 years if our debt to china be comes to high. That our politician will try to trick us in to war with china under the guise of possible invasion of taiwan................Yep that would be quite the disaster all around. Now would it? But the going to have to wait that 20 years for our memories to fade on this war.

We will see.

[kilgore]

Mcgee, you may have nailed the central most important thread to the future of Western Civilization here. China has the strength to make the muslims look like kindergardeners against gladiators in the realm of true threat to us and our way of life. Not just economically but militarily. We would have no choice whatsoever except to bring out the big gun or dissapear as a blip in the annals of history. This is the next great threat to our existence. It may in our future be the wake up call of survival to unite us. I refuse to buy anything made in China.

[Flieger]

Originally Posted by baystater

The only reason I'm concerned about Taiwan in particular is our long standing as allies just like we are with south Korea. I not sure if we can abandoned Taiwan.

And your right every thing you say is true about the military build up and that have some us over a financial barrel right now.

As for the CIA cloak and dagger stuff with Taiwan. It's not going to work. I know this sounds off. But with the INTERNET now-a-days secret aren't hidden anymore. Maybe ignored but not hidden. If we tried that route we would be dragged in regardless.

As with not hurting U.S. economically. Well that is a temporally thing. China is in the process to trying to make business ties with other countries so they are not as dependent on the U.S. in the future. So don't feel too safe. Granted we currently are their biggest customer.



Hmmmmm................I wonder if in 20 years if our debt to china be comes to high. That our politician will try to trick us in to war with china under the guise of possible invasion of taiwan................Yep that would be quite the disaster all around. Now would it? But the going to have to wait that 20 years for our memories to fade on this war.

We will see.

I think you're right, it's important to hold your allies' backs, especially since U.S. is the only Super Power (Hyper Power) these days. But doing so in this case would definitely hurt American interests. China is not a Third World country like Iraq is (and were prior to the U.S. invasion). The Chinese learned in the 1970's that it's a Capitalist World we live in, and in order to survive in this World, you've gotta adapt. And so they did. At least to a certain point, that is, they're letting foreign companies and interests invest there. The Communist Party still holds all the power, though, and still sort-of run the economy. Even though they're "allowing" Capitalism (or rather market economy) to somehow exist in China, they're just doing it to survive and grow - at heart, they're not sympathetic to Capitalism. Therefore you cannot rely on the Chinese.

I actually believe you're right that the time will come when the Chinese will have to dump their U.S. financial assets. The USD is declining in value, so the Chinese will soon have to take steps on what to do with their U.S. assets.

I'm not sure if the Washington in future, that is another administration and President, will "dare" to interfere in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It's too much at risk if you ask me...maybe the risk of losing the Super Power status. The Iraq War is showing no signs of ending, and it's already, as far as I remember, [officially] cost you more than a half Trillion Dollars if I remember correctly. I believe Bush will take military action against in Iran before he leaves office, and this will result in a conflict much worse than Iraq...it'll probably look more like Vietnam.

So in future, you'll be fighting in Afghanistan (perhaps, not much action going on there as far as I know), Iraq and Iran, so taking on China as well will not be an option on the table.

Also, remember that China's a part of an alliance called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In the case of a war against China, which at the moment is very remote indeed, you could probably also face Russia, and not because they're both full members of the SCO (because the official SCO policy does not involve military alliance, but SCO, especially China and Russia, has still held joint military exercises), but their relations have overall been very good lately, and they've got mutual interests. China's also very hungry for Russian enegy. SCO has also been labeled "anti-NATO" by Western analysts, so in the case of a war, it might not only involve U.S. and China, but perhaps NATO and SCO - something I would call the Third World War. The sad thing is that both Russia and China have "Nuclear Options":

1. Russia is possessing a great fortune of natural resources...natural gas and oil reserves, which will (and currently is) be used as a political weapon in future when the oil dries up and the World, especially oil-hungry countries such as U.S., will look for alternative sources of energy. That's their first nuclear option. Their second one is their real and very huge nuclear arsenal, which in fact is the largest in the World. They've got intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could reach U.S. soil.

2. China's a large holder of U.S. financial assets such as U.S. Government bonds and treasuries. They also hold more than a Trillion in U.S. Dollar reserves. This is what the media calls their "Nuclear Option". And these assets, similar to Russia's usage of energy as a political weapon, can (and sooner or later will I reckon) be used as a political weapon. Then there's the fact that U.S. is heavily dependent on Chinese-made products to satisfy the American consumption...if China were to drop their U.S. Government financial assets and cut the export of food and other products to U.S. (not voluntarily, of course, as they need it, but as a "weapon" in the midst of a war), imagine what that would do...I really can't imagine myself. Their second nuclear option is their real nuclear warheads, which can reach U.S. soil. Their third nuclear option, and this is just my own opinion, is their new space missile, which has sparked concern in Washington as they successfully destroyed one of their old weather satellites with it in a test. That missile could very well be used against American satellites to cut off [military] communication systems and other infrastructural systems which rely on satellites.

Well, that day, that sorrow. I really dislike the fact that these things can happen in future, especially since I want to relocate to the U.S. and build a career/family there.