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You have one study from 24 years ago, comparing two different states (different states = different regulatory issues, different tax structures, etc). If you had something more comprehensive and/or current to offer, you probably would have, so I'm assuming this is the only arrow in your quiver. It's not much, and certainly not enough to convince anyone that disagrees with you that you're on the right side of this issue.
When minimum wage is raised, all boats will expect to raise as well. The bottom up CONtango.
One thing is certain; employers will only hire people with more experience, or automate. There will be less entry level on-the-job training jobs, except for those that are already well above $10, such as construction apprenticeships.
That study has been debunked repeatedly. The authors themselves admitted it was flawed. Here are the flaws found with it:
That 'study' was a phone survey in which the authors asked fast food managers how big their staff was
The study completely ignored stores that closed post-minimum wage hikes
There were multiple measurement errors where they misreported stores closing as having opened
They looked at short term time periods, not multi-year shifts
They relied on the word of mouth from managers remembering their staff. They never once used employment records or pay records
Studies were done by Neumark and Wascher (1992) from 1973-1989, instead of the short time period that your study saw. By comparing the employment impacts of such changes over time, Neumark and Wascher found there are negative employment effects of the minimum wage. That is consistent with a study done by Deere, et al. (1995) whihc saw large disemployment effects of the 1991 increase in federal minimum wage
That is between them and their employer, but their pay would not be affected.
Ah - so you are trying to be literal. What do you think will really happen?
Those people making $10.25/hour as per the original post will ask for a raise. Maybe not so nicely. And their boss more than likely have to give lots of people raises so their employees who have more skills than the people who just got a raise.
This is true. Proponents of government imposed wage increaes never think of this.
This problem describes what I call thhe Walmart effect. Faced wiith rising cost of living, most low-wage workers support a higher minimum wage in the short run even if it makes them worse off in the long run.
Many people are optimists, and believe that by the time a MW increase hurts them, they will be in a different job earning higher wages, and thereby not harmed.
Pessimists (like me) may figure that the wolf is always at the door, and therefore they need a wage hike now...besides, people often have inflated opinions of themselves, and expect the negative effects will be experienced by younger and/or less experienced workers.
People who worked hard starting out at minimum wage and worked to get up to 10 or 11 an hour would be knocked back down to square one. It's no secret that Liberal dems don't like success or achievement, so they could care less.
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