Thinking the unthinkable: War with Russia. (Putin, Iraq, salaries, generations)
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The unthinkable war with Russia.
Recently I’ve been hearing more talk of a “War” against the Russians. I find that kind of view really disturbing. While Putin’s moves into the Crimea are sketchy, open war with Russia, on Russian soil in Russian air-space is too stupid to think about. Even if the Crimea was historically Russian (Which it is) for the US and whatever European “Allies” we could muster, any fight against the Russians on their own turf is likely to be very costly. We have plenty of examples of past history that show conclusively that the Russians are likely to fight like maniacs in the defense of their homes and homeland. The Nazis got thrown out of Soviet Russia suffering millions of killed, millions wounded in the attempt. Never EVER underestimate the ferocity of the average Russian fighting to protect his own country. Keep in mind that MILLIONS of Russians have Ukrainian family members and vice versa. The same is true for Minsk and Moscow, the Belorussians and the Russians are very VERY closely related, nearly the same. Many invaders have been thrown out of Russia. The French were thrown out, the British, the Swedes, Lithuanians, Turks, Poles and Mongols all thrown out. During WW2 the Russians had no problem brutally spending millions of their own lives to rid the country of foreign invaders. Any fight in the Ukraine proper will likely devolve into a civil war as the Ukraine has lots of Russians, lots of Ukrainians they look the same, sound the same speak nearly the same language and have been inter-marrying for generations, many are related, making the the whole thing quite messy. Much of this issue has stemmed from the systemic corruption of the governments in Kiev. Russia has seen huge economic resurgence and even common middle-class Russians have enough comparative wealth to their brother Ukrainians that I know of personally many Russians that take meager salaries in Rubles and live like kings in the Ukraine. The Russians in Crimea and the Ukraine are not deaf and dumb. They see the increasing prosperity up North in Russia and they want on-board. Continued Ukrainian “independence” has stifled economic growth in the Ukraine holding back Russians and Ukrainians there alike. Kiev thought the answer to this was to go west to EU/NATO instead of re-connecting at least economically with the resurgent Russia. That was Kiev’s mistake. Clearly Russians on the Crimean Peninsula and in the Ukraine want to live the better life that they clearly see their Russian brethren living. Moscow will not accept NATO troops on her vulnerable southern border with Ukraine. The Russians living in the Baltics would never agitate for reunification, and it is unlikely that Moscow would instigate that because no one would believe it. The Russians in the Baltic States know that they are WAY better off being in the Baltics and not under Moscow, heck, they even knew that during Soviet times. Crimea and the Ukraine are a different matter. If life was nearly as good or better for the Russians in the Ukraine…we would NOT be having this discussion. As for direct military involvement either US/NATO or EU or some combination of those, if we go there we open all the flood gates that will inexorably lead to WORLD WAR THREE. If we get involved militarily the American public would have to be willing to accept the distinct possibility of millions of American servicemen killed and many millions wounded. I’m not sure the American voting public would be up for that. It could very well make Pres. Barak H. Obama and the US Democratic Party some of the most despised leaders in US history. For the US it could easily be the costliest war ever, worse than our casualties in WW2 ten-fold. It would be a certainty that we’d have to initiate a general conscription, a draft, to meet the manpower needs for such an effort. Our supply lines and logistics would be stretched to the very limit. The Russians would take off from their airfields and be ready to fight within minutes, because they’d be fighting in their own airspace, over their own homes. Our planes would have to fly hours to get there, leave from bases located in countries close to Russia, thereby making those counties legitimate targets for the Russians and subject to retaliation should the war start to go bad. Is the US willing to guarantee the security of the nations that surround Russia, should we find it necessary to use those nations as forward staging? I'm sure that those nations will look back at our exit from Vietnam and Iraq and wonder. The Russians would no doubt target any base anywhere that was the source of an attack on their territory. The Russian logistical system would be as short as could be. Ours would require massive sealift the capability of which we no longer have. The Russian navy may be down but not out and Russian subs would certainly begin unrestricted anti-shipping campaigns to further punish US/EU shipping dragging the world economy into collapse. American industrial capacity would have to be expanded on a massive scale regardless because no doubt the issue would not be decided in a few weeks or months but would drag on for years if not decades. And after all that is said, what would keep this from going nuclear? What about WMD's. We KNOW that we both have them for sure. Would one side or the other pull those out in a last-ditch effort if the war started to fall apart for them? Our military has become weak through its continued use as material for social engineering experiments. It is a mystery what the US/EU desired end-state is vis Russia in the first place. Russia has never had (Particularly on its Western edge) any easily defined geographical borders or boundaries. Any war with Russia on Ukrainian soil will certainly have to be carried into Russia proper in order to interdict Russia’s defense and logistical systems. How far would the US/EU/NATO propose to go? All the way to Moscow and beyond? Well that’s been tried may times, never successfully. The French took a pile of ashes and lost their army as they fled starving along the way, harassed by endless numbers of Slavic partisans. The Germans never made it at all loosing millions killed in the effort. The Ukraine’s best bet it to sue for a peaceful resolution akin to other autonomous republics w/I the Russian federation should it appear that the Russians will simply take the Eastern Ukraine if not all of it. The US/NATO/EU can honestly only apply diplomatic pressure, work to DE-escalate the situation by working to ensure the rights of all persons (Russian/Ukrainian/Moldovan et al) be respected. The very last thing we need to do is arm the government in Kiev, itself as corrupt as or more so than the one in Moscow, adding tons of fuel to what will be a horrid fire of civil-war far worse than what was seen in the Balkans. It is my sincerest hope that this talk of war falls on deaf ears and that issues in the Ukraine be resolved peacefully. It would be much better for the US/EU to mediate some sort of resolution, broker a deal between the Russians (in Russia) and all the people living in the Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian alike. Use trade loan guarantees aid packages to sweeten the pot for everyone. This could be a win-win for all involved if done correctly. Barak H. Obama might get a Nobel Peace Prize for actually doing something this time, namely taking a global leadership role and averting World War Three. Sadly, diplomatic pressure will be difficult to achieve because London, Paris, Washington and Berlin all have become such limp metro-sexual cesspools of utter non-leadership that they no longer carry any sort of clout on any level, governmental, personal etc. The Ukrainians top leadership needs to engage Moscow NOW at the very highest levels and get the best deal they can. At the very least the Ukrainian PM should go to Moscow to just talk to Putin, enumerate Ukrainian grievances and elaborate on Western offers to Ukraine and see what the Russians can offer give it a try before going for the guns. Putin may be a savage bas-turd but he'd not stupid. He does not want a civil war in Ukraine on his Southern border spilling over into Russia and elsewhere any more than we do, ultimately wars, civil strife are bad for business, who needs it? Closer economic ties with Russia would be a good start, that could lead to relationships that work for both parties. A uniform monetary unit for Russia and the Ukraine would be a good start also. The EU did it, painful at first sure, but fully workable now. The Ukraine has a great deal to offer the Russians if the Russians are willing to work with the Ukrainians. Even so, the Ukraine has been part of greater Russia far more in past history than it has been independent. The lengthy common history and culture and language will ensure that no matter what the outcome the two nations will be inseparable. The Ukraine’s continued push toward EU/NATO is an invitation for disaster, foreign troops on Ukrainian soil facing the Russians is a virtual guarantee of that. We’re I to be advising them I say….”seriously reconsider”…..Lastly, does Barak H. 0bama really think that he can engage the Russians on their soil, in their air-space w/o a draft? I seriously doubt the texting couch-potato generation wants to die (by the million) in Russia in an attempt to keep Russians separated from other Russians.
Russia can barely match the GDP of Italy, and they'd be facing a unified Germany, a bunch of former satellite states who wouldn't mind a little payback, to say nothing of the rest of NATO.
And there's no call to invade Russia - just contain.
(W) O.K. Paragraphs. Will do, but I like to ramble....
(D) Unfortunately pay-back can work both ways. The Russians were not willing to give in even after the disaster they suffered 41'-45' 20+ million dead. I can't imagine that they'd ever accept a "new" "pay-back" achieved status quo. That would only lead to pay-back in in kind from the Russians themselves, sort of what we're seeing right now and on and on it goes.....with out end....no good.....Again military options are not.......
There is not doubt that an unified Europe and the US could sanction and isolate Russia right out of the game and if it came to war, assuming it stayed conventional we would prevail. But in the analogy of this thread, one small little factor is overlooked, Russia has 20,000 plus nukes! And Putin if he invades all of Ukraine will have demonstrated he is just another lunatic world leader. He becomes certifiable at that point and all bets are off.
The Russians are no doubt days away from advancing into Ukraine. There is no other reason for their current military buildup along the Ukraine borders. They are going to invade.
Russia can barely match the GDP of Italy, and they'd be facing a unified Germany, a bunch of former satellite states who wouldn't mind a little payback, to say nothing of the rest of NATO.
And there's no call to invade Russia - just contain.
Gee............. for once I agree.
The Russian military is poorly equipped, poorly trained, and has inferior conventional equipment. Europe alone could steam roll the Russians in a conventional conflict without any help from the US.
Keep in mind that Russia's GDP is equal to that of California.
There is not doubt that an unified Europe and the US could sanction and isolate Russia right out of the game and if it came to war, assuming it stayed conventional we would prevail. But in the analogy of this thread, one small little factor is overlooked, Russia has 20,000 plus nukes! And Putin if he invades all of Ukraine will have demonstrated he is just another lunatic world leader. He becomes certifiable at that point and all bets are off.
The Russians are no doubt days away from advancing into Ukraine. There is no other reason for their current military buildup along the Ukraine borders. They are going to invade.
I'm afraid that if we take the fight to their land we would get our a**es kicked. The Russians don't play! Now, if you were saying the fight would be over here, it would be them getting their a**es handed to them. Is it worth the potential loss of thousands of American lives? No.
We couldn't subdue Iraq, can't subdue Afghanistan, but folks think we'd have a shot against Russia on Eurasian soil?
SMH...Americans.
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