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To look at what happened in the past as an indication of what is coming is to hide your head in the sand.
To assume that we cannot learn from the results of past events is the height of foolishness. Will future innovations be different than past ones? Certainly. Will productive reactions to future innovations be the same as for past ones? No, certainly not. Will productive reactions to past innovations give us a hint or two as to how to deal with future ones? Yes, very probably.
Human beings love doom and gloom, they love dire predictions and they eat it up whenever someone puts it out there for them. Videos such as this one get more hits or sell more ads when they provide that which will be gobbled up by the average viewer.
Has automation ever previously caused mass job losses? No. Sure, jobs may have been lost in some fields due to automation but they have been replaced by jobs in other fields. Increased efficiency has generally been good for the economy as a whole and, thus, employment.
That doesn't mean that will always be the case and I do fear we may reach a "tipping point" of sorts where automation goes too far, but it really doesn't jive with the laws of economics or with history.
This time its different. Oh sure we're still automating things, and new jobs may appear as a result, the difference is that we are working on automation thats MUCH more capable of being generically applied. Before we automated a specific task.
As many have noted, its the transition to the future that worries me as well. The future is bright, but our government and society is particularly poorly suited for the transition.
This video blew me away. It details all of the ways automation will soon take over most of the jobs that employ Americans.
With automation coming, and coming quickly (it's already here) in virtually every field, up to 45% of the workforce will soon be unemployable, through no fault of their own. The jobs just simply won't be there any longer. All of our debate about raising the minimum wage may be moot.
It sounds like a good case for basic income.
Yes, it sounds like a great case for basic income. If and when it happens. However, it hasn't happened yet. But I'll just bet you and other liberals would like to use it as a reason to justify instituting basic income right now. Then, when it turns out human labor isn't obsolete, the economy will have already adjusted to the point where basic income is a necessity and you'll have gotten what you wanted all along, regardless of automation.
It's similar to Obamacare. You institute a system to cover health care costs in reaction to the rising cost of health care. However, the system you institute does not actually lower the cost of healthcare. It simply hides the cost away from the individual. Instead of actually address the cost of healthcare, it lets the true cost of healthcare continue to rise unchecked, which only serves to increase the need for more and more government assistance. You end up achieving your goal of wealth redistribution without ever actually solving anything.
Once you've got people "hooked" on your basic income, it's entirely irrelevant whether or not the pressing need for that basic income ever comes to pass. Same as the current welfare system. The country could not survive without welfare. However, before welfare was started the country survived just fine. The Great Society did not lower poverty rates one bit. But are not in a position of needing to continue the welfare state in order to maintain the same poverty rates that we used to have without that welfare state.
It seems some might be using automation as a way of pushing for basic income.
Thing is how is basic income different from the current welfare system?
Basic income provides the same for everyone, not means tested, and replaces multiple other programs, and is NOT scaled to locale-in other words if you are on it, you probably cant afford to live in new york.
Lower overhead.
The automation changes are driving the discussion. I think that discussing it is VERY appropriate, but we're not at the point where implementing it is correct. Its inevitable I think. But now is not the time.
I agree, the transition period is going to be harsh. And I don't believe we have the political will in place right now to deal with what's coming, which is going to make it worse before it gets better. I'm the same age as you, but I am more optimistic of coming out on the other side of this massive transformation of humanity and to see the new way of life that emerges from it. And I think it's going to happen sooner than most people realize.
I think the best solution right now might be to start decreasing the work week gradually from 5 days a week to three.
That will allow many more people to get a job while decreasing the salaries of those who are working now. That too is harsh, but (real) salaries are decreasing anyway, might as well start pushing the shorter week.
This video blew me away. It details all of the ways automation will soon take over most of the jobs that employ Americans.
With automation coming, and coming quickly (it's already here) in virtually every field, up to 45% of the workforce will soon be unemployable, through no fault of their own. The jobs just simply won't be there any longer. All of our debate about raising the minimum wage may be moot.
It sounds like a good case for basic income.
You have never explained how we prosper by stealing the income of an ever decreasing number of wealth creators.
When that number reaches the critical point (if it hasn't already), who will you steal from? And what will those who depend on that theft do? Die?
One thing is for certain: there is no stopping them, the robots will soon be here.
And I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.
I’d like to remind them that as a trusted CityData poster, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves.
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