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FIX: The Election Lab model shows Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate majority. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance. Why is EL so bullish?
Election Lab: First, I should mention what I don't think is behind the difference: Our prediction for the vote share in each race. I'll bet that none of the modelers differ by more than a couple of percentage points in terms of how many votes they think each candidate will receive. Likewise, I'll bet we're all within a seat or two in terms of the number of total Democratic and Republicans seats we think most likely. Rather, the difference is more about the statistical confidence in our predictions.
Does it matter if the GOP takes the senate? The Dirt Bag In Chief has a pen and a phone......
Dethroning Harry Reid would be worth it. Plus, the Senate would actually engage in oversight, instead of covering up the corrupt doings of the Obama crime syndicate.
Does the model also give them a filibuster proof Senate?
The GOP in this Senate broke records for fillibustering, and the practice was defended vehemently by Conservatives. It will be interesting to see if the Democrats decide to employ the same tactics if Republicans regain control of the Senate. Can't you just imagine the howls of indignation that will come from the right?
They won't be able to override a presidential veto, so it's not like they can do any real damage. And it was pretty much a given that gridlock was going to remain during the last two years of the Obama Administration anyway, so I'm all for the GOP taking the Senate. We might as well be entertained while nothing gets done.
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