Unemployment comes down as labor participation goes up
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Employment is tweaked by a " seasonal adjustment" due to weather, harvest, holidays and school in an attempt to normalize the numbers for month to month comparisons. The " seasonal adjustment" is not used when comparing annual employment numbers.
If " seasonal adjustment" we're not used employment would always increase around the holidays and show increased unemployment in January.
Then there's the perennial favorites construction/ trade jobs that hire/ lay off with the weather. An HVAC guy in say Florida is more likely to winter over on unemployment than his counterpart up north.
FWIW, without the seasonal adjustments the non-farm payroll increased 1,064 thousand instead of 214, the U3 is 5.5% instead of 5.8% and the LFPR is 63.0% instead of 62.8%.
What nonsense. The labor force participation nudged up a tiny amount. It is so far down that it doesn't matter:
The labor-force participation rate edged up to 62.8% from 62.7%. The height was 67.2% under Bush and Obama inherited it at 65.7%.
This means that MILLIONS have dropped out of the labor force under Obama watch and after six years have not been able to find their way back.
Myth busted.
And meanwhile, wages remain stagnant and underemployment remains a huge problem.
Can we lesson a lesson from this election and please...please!...stop the left wing lies? People know their lives under Obama stink. They know that they were better off under Bush for 98% of his presidency. And those old enough remember that it took Ronald Reagan two years to make a better recovery under more difficult circumstances than Obama has in six BY ENNACTING THE OPPOSITE OF OBAMA'S POLICIES.
Numbers juggling and statistical lies will not help you in the next election. THERE IS NO WAY AROUND THIS.
The LFPR rate will not be reaching the previous highs for decades (if ever) no matter who is President or which party is in power.
AKA: retiring Baby boomers, who began turning 65 in 2011. The current decline in LFPR was predicted long before Bush, Obama, and the Great Recession, largely because this massive demographic was entering its retirement years.
Pretty much everything you posted is misleading. The early 80's downturn was less severe than the Great Recession, Reagan's recovery featured a whole to government expansion (something right-wingers looking never vote for in 2014), and the unemolyment rate at this point in his presidency was much higher than the current 5.8%.
Not only that, but the Labor Force Participation Rate doesn't simply start falling at age 65 (and NEVER has). The LFPR peaks between the ages of 35 and 44 - and begins falling at 45. That was true in the 1980's, the 1990's the 2000's and it's true today. By the time folks get to age 61 (even BEFORE they qualify for EARLY Social Security) the LFPR has ALREADY fallen by 15 points or so. By the time folks get to age 64 the LFPR has fallen by 22 POINTS - in other words by age 64 (BEFORE they even reach full Social Security age) MORE THAN ONE QUARTER of the folks who were working when they were 35-44 have ALREADY RETIRED!!!!!!!
Consequently, it's not JUST the number of people turning 65 that's undermining the LFPR, it's also the MILLIONS of babyboomers turning 55 and even those folks turning 45 - and most importantly there's MILLIONS more people in those age groups than ever before.
I was too busy at work today to notice we received another good report. 5.8% is terrific news!
Terrific indeed.
And I've said it before and I'll say it AGAIN - with yet ANOTHER prediction ON THE RECORD: Once the UE rate gets below 6% or so (which it is now) we will likely begin to see wages increasing at a faster pace because companies will begin having to compete for the better workers - and workers will begin to become more selective in where they work.
For the past 6 years the employers have had the upper hand because there was glut of unemployed people. This imbalance has resulted in employers really taking advange of their workers - doing things like paying them less than they should, elimination benefits and even in some well-publicised cases cheating people out of their full wages. THAT is about to change as balance is restored in the employer/employee relationship.
Ken
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