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This pops up every once a week on this thread. Gallup is trying to say we should be going by the U-6 rather than the U-3, but we have been going by our current method for decades. If one wants to go by the U-6 numbers, that is fine, but then one should be constant and always use the U-6 numbers even when the economy is going good for their favorite candidate.
During the Baby Bush years, that average low for him was about 8.2%. The pace this country has been going on, by this time next year we should almost be at 8.5% and on par with the good economy times during the Baby Bush years.
U6 is not an unemployment measure. It includes part-time workers who want full-time work. It doesn't count the increase in part-time work.
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was 44.1% in January. This is statistically similar to the 44.3% measured in December, but it is the highest measurement of P2P for any January since Gallup began tracking the metric in 2010. January is typically one of the lowest months for P2P in any year.
....
U.S. employment measures show continued positive signs for the economy in January 2015. Employment growth has been stronger in the past 12 months than in any year since Gallup began tracking these metrics in January 2010. P2P was higher in January in 2015 than in any previous year, hopefully setting the stage for continued strength in the months ahead. Unadjusted unemployment rose by more than a point, but the underlying combination of more workforce participation and lower rates of part-time work that appear to drive this increase make this counterintuitively good news.
The methodology was changed 21 years ago, in 1994 and hardly a secret.
Also the trend line Gallup's own measure of unemployment tracks pretty closely with the BLS numbers. Gallup's numbers tend to be more volatile because they use seasonally unadjusted numbers which means sometimes they are higher than the BLS number and sometimes they are lower.
Perhaps Clifton should check his own analysts work.
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