U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 02-10-2015, 04:55 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,884,450 times
Reputation: 767

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
Convincing a country with 26% unemployment to do belt tightening is not simple.
Hence my plan. Print money good in Greece only. get full employment and then what the outside world wants is easier to take.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 02-10-2015, 04:59 PM
 
1,825 posts, read 1,208,934 times
Reputation: 539
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
That is wishful thinking from Syriza-supporters. Greece needs EU a lot more, than EU needs Greece. Remember that the situation is different from 2012. Greece is not getting kicked out because of austerity, they are getting kicked out because the leaders of Syriza are too hard to work with.

In the event of a default, Italy, Ireland and Portugal will not change course.
Italy: They got a deficit that is lower than France, and is under the 3% rule. In addition their debt is mostly owned by Italians, so they cannot default.
Ireland: They have a stable debt level, and unemployment has dropped to 10.5%. They are not going to screw up their recovery by making a big deal with EU.
Portugal: They got slightly more reasons to ask for a debt relief, but currently that has not been the Portuguese way, and there are no large third parties. The performance of Portugal has been good, and I don't think they want to screw it up.

So that leaves Spain, but Podemos only has 25% of the vote in the opinion polls. There are no 50 seat bonus in Spain, and that means he will need to create a coalition with the social democrats. But if Greece crash and burn, then the socialist and people's party will form a grand coalition or Podemos need to promise they will not follow in the footstep of Syriza. That means there could be some tough negotiations, but Spain will not use default as a threat in the negotiations.

In 2012, Spain, Portugal and Ireland had many of the same problems as Greece. Now Greece is alone, and if they don't want to cooperate, then it is better to get rid of them,
If you get rid of Greece there will be no clean break and they will almost certainly take Cyprus with them. Podemos is at 25% now but there is a trend with the socialists imploding. If Greece goes it wont go quietly. Its going to drive Southern Europe back into recession.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:00 PM
 
1,825 posts, read 1,208,934 times
Reputation: 539
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
Hence my plan. Print money good in Greece only. get full employment and then what the outside world wants is easier to take.
You are wrong if you think these problems will stay in Greece only.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:00 PM
 
23,104 posts, read 12,685,548 times
Reputation: 2955
And I think the Germans and the Northern European countries have firewall themselves from the Greek exit and any possible repercussions it may have on Southern periphery nations
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:04 PM
 
1,825 posts, read 1,208,934 times
Reputation: 539
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
And I think the Germans and the Northern European countries have firewall themselves from the Greek exit and any possible repercussions it may have on Southern periphery nations
Germany's economy is export manufacturing driven. They won't be able to do that with a Northern European only Euro because it will be too strong. If Germany goes back to something like the Mark their exporters will be crippled.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:05 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,884,450 times
Reputation: 767
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
You are wrong if you think these problems will stay in Greece only.
World wide we need something like a 2X on GWP without any more debt. Some places more and some places less. Just getting 3rd world countries up in wages closer to our own would help a lot. But we in the US still need a 2X on our economy without any more debt just to have our debts be serviceable. So the world needs a lot more than a 2X.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:15 PM
 
Location: Tianjin, China
3,115 posts, read 2,692,620 times
Reputation: 1712
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
If you get rid of Greece there will be no clean break and they will almost certainly take Cyprus with them.
No they won't. Cyprus have no alliance with Greece, and would prefer to stay out of the headlines.

Quote:
If Greece goes it wont go quietly. Its going to drive Southern Europe back into recession.
No, it won't. Greece is 2% of the economy of eurozone, and they haven't been paying down their debt anyway. Bond yields in PIIG are already at 1-2%, and if for some reason they should get higher yields again, then ECB will buy up their bonds, which will reduce the interest rates.

Just forget about it, Greece has no leverage. Greece is more like the guy who threaten to jump a bridge unless he get what he wants. Of course we don't want him to jump off the bridge, but if his demands become totally unreasonable, then we will just let him jump.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:15 PM
 
23,104 posts, read 12,685,548 times
Reputation: 2955
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
Germany's economy is export manufacturing driven. They won't be able to do that with a Northern European only Euro because it will be too strong. If Germany goes back to something like the Mark their exporters will be crippled.
No one in Greece can afford those German exports as it stands now anyway. Plus, Germany has a large overseas market. They don't need to rely on Greece and Portugal to by Bosch products
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:19 PM
 
1,825 posts, read 1,208,934 times
Reputation: 539
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
No one in Greece can afford those German exports as it stands now anyway. Plus, Germany has a large overseas market. They don't need to rely on Greece and Portugal to by Bosch products
That misses the point. Southern European countries keep the Euro lower then it would be without them in the Eurozone. That makes exporting stuff from Germany cheaper regardless of the destination.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-10-2015, 05:21 PM
 
1,825 posts, read 1,208,934 times
Reputation: 539
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
No they won't. Cyprus have no alliance with Greece, and would prefer to stay out of the headlines.



No, it won't. Greece is 2% of the economy of eurozone, and they haven't been paying down their debt anyway. Bond yields in PIIG are already at 1-2%, and if for some reason they should get higher yields again, then ECB will buy up their bonds, which will reduce the interest rates.

Just forget about it, Greece has no leverage. Greece is more like the guy who threaten to jump a bridge unless he get what he wants. Of course we don't want him to jump off the bridge, but if his demands become totally unreasonable, then we will just let him jump.
Cyprus is not allied with Greece, but they have a lot of similar problems. A Grexit goes beyond Greece's share of the economy and highlights the underlying problems of the Eurozone not to mention contagion. Problems in Greece will spread through Southern Europe just like they did last time as people reasses Spain Italy and Portugal. I also wouldn't count on Italy not being a problem either since in 2013 Beppo Grillo almost blew away an Italian austerity government. Either way all of this is speculation because we have no idea what Syriza or Germany or Brussles will do.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:44 AM.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top