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What I'm hearing is, "I have no military experience and I'm totally clueless about military operations and logistics."
Fear not, I do.
How does getting "the bomb" mean it's all over for Israel?
This is a joke topic that I have destroyed time and time again.
Those of us with the education, training and experience know that no Israeli combat aircraft have the combat radius to strike targets in Iran.
If you don't understand the difference between combat radius and range, then you need to learn.
And we know that Israel would need at the bare minimum, at least 14 aircraft per target. Some targets would require 20 aircraft. While planning your operation, the issue of fuel is going to come up. You will have refuel aircraft in-flight and then also refuel aircraft as the come out-bound from Iran.
How many aerial tankers does Israel have? 5 to 8 (depending on the source). Assuming for a moment that Israel really does have 8 tankers, and that all 8 tankers have an operational readiness of 100%, that means Israel could refuel 48 aircraft.
Oooops.
And then what about out-bound? Those aerial tankers will never be able to fly from the Persian Gulf back to Israel, refuel, reload with fuel, then take off and return to the Persian Gulf in time to re-fuel aircraft coming out.
By the way, what are you using for Psub(k)?
I generally bracket 0.41 to 0.55 for PGMs.
You do know what I'm talking about right?
When I was in S-3 Air Ops planning operations with the naval liaison and the FAC, we don't just guess at how many aircraft we need. It's not like Dungeons & Dragons were we roll two 8-sided die and a 10-sided die.
We have very precise mathematical formulas that we use. Even if I'm calling up air cav to strike ground targets, I still have to calculate the number of sorties so I can inform the commander how many air cav platoons he'll need to have ready. PGMs are "Precision-Guided Munitions." Yeah, and even though they're laser-guided or GPS guided, they still have a fail rate and they only hit their target 41% to 55% of the time.
An F-16 can carry 2 2,000 lb bombs and 2 AGM-158s. Suppose I need 4 AGMs and 4 2,000 lb bombs to destroy the target. That means I actually need four F-16s each loaded with 2 AGM-158s and 2 2,000 lb pounds to ensure that target is destroyed. For troops in the open an other crap, I can play fast and loose, but for point targets there isn't a lot of leeway.
Your n and Psub(d), will be difficult here too. 'n' is the number of missile shots from air or ground-based defenses.
You do understand that unlike the Iraqi retards, Iranian air defense are mobile, meaning they shoot-n-scoot. And you are aware that there are at least 52 if not as many as 61 F-14 Tomcats prowling the Iranian skies, right? And all of them have Phoenix missiles (back-engineered by Russians and Chinese) with a range of at least 90 nm, right?
I mention that, because Israel would need about 78 aircraft at the very, very least, and they'll be in Iranian skies with no command and control.
You know I'm talking about EW aircraft, right, like AWACs, Hawkeyes and such? The Israeli pilots would be totally blind. They wouldn't see missiles coming at them unless the missiles are close enough to trigger the radar warning receiver. And then they wouldn't see aircraft coming at them either. The Iranian F-4s and F-5s have a small profile and you're not going to see them until their up in your face firing. That's where an AWACs would be helpful.
And if an F-16 gets locked, you realize the only defense it has is to jettison its ordnance and bug-out. An F-15 could deal with it, but not an F-16, and certainly not with a strike load-out. An F-16 is like a pig on a bowling ball.
Anyway, those are (some of) the reasons Israel has never attacked Iran....and never will.
It looks like it is more likely now than ever that Israel will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Unless they can get their favorite political puppets here in the U.S. to screw things up. The agreement with Iran isn't a done deal yet. There are people who can get in the way and that is what Israel is hoping for. But if they don't screw the agreement up then Israel will bomb Iran. There is little doubt in my mind because Israel is not going to live with the possibility that down the road Iran gets the bomb with Israel knowing its all over for her. So this is a serious topic that deserves discussion because the repercussions of an Israeli bombing would be great. Of course Iran would declare war on Israel making it official. In my view it would set off a much bigger war than between Israel and Iran. We in the U.S. would be involved in some way because we are so deeply involved in the middle east right now that it couldn't be avoided. Any opinions on what some of the repercussions of Israel bombing Iran would be.
If such a coalition bombed Israel to any real extent, you'd see mushroom clouds over the ME.
Israel has proven over and over to be very controlled over escalation, but if they feel their country were in true jeopardy, they'd unleash the atom.
Israel would not use nuclear weapons, that is pure insane thinking. It is like some of you are actually giddy at the thought of a global nuclear war, I guess Jesus comes back or something like that.
What I'm hearing is, "I have no military experience and I'm totally clueless about military operations and logistics."
Fear not, I do.
How does getting "the bomb" mean it's all over for Israel?
This is a joke topic that I have destroyed time and time again.
Those of us with the education, training and experience know that no Israeli combat aircraft have the combat radius to strike targets in Iran.
If you don't understand the difference between combat radius and range, then you need to learn.
And we know that Israel would need at the bare minimum, at least 14 aircraft per target. Some targets would require 20 aircraft. While planning your operation, the issue of fuel is going to come up. You will have refuel aircraft in-flight and then also refuel aircraft as the come out-bound from Iran.
How many aerial tankers does Israel have? 5 to 8 (depending on the source). Assuming for a moment that Israel really does have 8 tankers, and that all 8 tankers have an operational readiness of 100%, that means Israel could refuel 48 aircraft.
Oooops.
And then what about out-bound? Those aerial tankers will never be able to fly from the Persian Gulf back to Israel, refuel, reload with fuel, then take off and return to the Persian Gulf in time to re-fuel aircraft coming out.
By the way, what are you using for Psub(k)?
I generally bracket 0.41 to 0.55 for PGMs.
You do know what I'm talking about right?
When I was in S-3 Air Ops planning operations with the naval liaison and the FAC, we don't just guess at how many aircraft we need. It's not like Dungeons & Dragons were we roll two 8-sided die and a 10-sided die.
We have very precise mathematical formulas that we use. Even if I'm calling up air cav to strike ground targets, I still have to calculate the number of sorties so I can inform the commander how many air cav platoons he'll need to have ready. PGMs are "Precision-Guided Munitions." Yeah, and even though they're laser-guided or GPS guided, they still have a fail rate and they only hit their target 41% to 55% of the time.
An F-16 can carry 2 2,000 lb bombs and 2 AGM-158s. Suppose I need 4 AGMs and 4 2,000 lb bombs to destroy the target. That means I actually need four F-16s each loaded with 2 AGM-158s and 2 2,000 lb pounds to ensure that target is destroyed. For troops in the open an other crap, I can play fast and loose, but for point targets there isn't a lot of leeway.
Your n and Psub(d), will be difficult here too. 'n' is the number of missile shots from air or ground-based defenses.
You do understand that unlike the Iraqi retards, Iranian air defense are mobile, meaning they shoot-n-scoot. And you are aware that there are at least 52 if not as many as 61 F-14 Tomcats prowling the Iranian skies, right? And all of them have Phoenix missiles (back-engineered by Russians and Chinese) with a range of at least 90 nm, right?
I mention that, because Israel would need about 78 aircraft at the very, very least, and they'll be in Iranian skies with no command and control.
You know I'm talking about EW aircraft, right, like AWACs, Hawkeyes and such? The Israeli pilots would be totally blind. They wouldn't see missiles coming at them unless the missiles are close enough to trigger the radar warning receiver. And then they wouldn't see aircraft coming at them either. The Iranian F-4s and F-5s have a small profile and you're not going to see them until their up in your face firing. That's where an AWACs would be helpful.
And if an F-16 gets locked, you realize the only defense it has is to jettison its ordnance and bug-out. An F-15 could deal with it, but not an F-16, and certainly not with a strike load-out. An F-16 is like a pig on a bowling ball.
Anyway, those are (some of) the reasons Israel has never attacked Iran....and never will.
All those danged nasty details screwing up a good armchair attack scenario.
I doubt the United States would bomb Israel. However, it is likely that Russia or China would assist Iran in maintaining a "no fly" zone over their country or counter attack Israel in retaliation for any preemptive strike against Iran.
If Israel attacks Iran with the deal in place, it would be treated like Iraq's invasion of Kuwait with Israel the aggressor this time. The United States would most likely be forced to do nothing rather than risk getting dragged into Israel's war.
Israel is *NOT* going to bomb Iran for one simple reason; they are unsure the Obama administration will have their back. Without the sure support of the USA Israel would not risk the military back lash from its Arab neighbors. Especially now when Isis and other groups are not only running lose but seem remarkably well funded.
Obama first in a long line of POTUS hasn't kissed the behinds of Israel and they know it. He did make some overtures during his 2012 re-election cycle to shore up support, but as a lame duck president he doesn't have to worry about the "Jewish vote" any longer.
A. Israel has never in the past required or desired the US to "have its back" when contemplating an attack. They typically don't even advise the US of their actions, and don't even provide a detailed back-brief afterward.
B. The US does not have a mutual security treaty with Israel that would require it. Nor does the US have "tripwire" troops in Israel as there are in South Korea.
It's not going to happen. If Israel had the capability to take out the facility it would have been done already. I would imagine that they learned from both Iraqs and Syrias mistake and built it to withstand an assault.
A. Israel has never in the past required or desired the US to "have its back" when contemplating an attack. They typically don't even advise the US of their actions, and don't even provide a detailed back-brief afterward.
B. The US does not have a mutual security treaty with Israel that would require it. Nor does the US have "tripwire" troops in Israel as there are in South Korea.
Never in the past has Israel attacked a country with a negotiated deal in place with all five members of the UN Security Council. The UN and global community would be forced to defend Iran and the actions of their own council.
Not much. All Saudi would be providing would be air space rights. Perhaps at best, Israel could forward deploy C-130 tankers to Saudi bases. All the other factors would still apply.
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