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[quote=PedroMartinez;42554046]What is our labor participation rate? That is truly the real measure.[quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by beb0p
That's not true. Labor participation rate has NEVER meant much.
In fact, it has been falling for over a decade. It fell when the economy was good, it fell when it was bad. A falling labor participation is basically the new normal. Anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to take you for a fool.
Wow, now that’s a pretty arrogant statement to make!! The Labor Force Participation Rate is a lot more meaningful than the Unemployment Rate – which only counts you as a real human being if you’ve applied for a job in the last month or so. The Unemployment Rate makes the absolutely ridiculous assumption that anyone no looking for a job doesn’t actually want one. Many current housewives would like to get a job but gave up. Countless others have also given up looking. Many more have realize it’s pretty easy to scam the Federal Government and coast almost indefinitely by defrauding the many social programs. So there is a steady increase in folks reporting as too disabled to work. The Unemployment Rate ignores them too.
With women as fully integrated into the workforce as they’re likely to get by 1990, that year serves as an excellent baseline for the LFPR to offer us meaningful data. In addition, the US Department of Labor that compiles the numbers for LFPR offers per-demographic breakdown on which groups are the biggest contributors to the LFPR’s decline.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Age: 16 years and over
This underscores one very big problem with what you said beb0p: "A falling labor participation is basically the new normal." The new normal since when? Since the economic collapse of 2008 certainly. But why were't we seeing steady decline before that? LFPR would make President Bill Clinton the greatest economic superstar that this nation has ever seen. Then a slight down-tick with Bush. Then a massive plummet we've never actually recovered from starting in Bush's last year and continuing through Obama's entire presidency.
And when you throw LFPR at Dems they immediately say, "It's all old people retiring." It isn't. The hardest hit demographics: 16-24 years olds. Ever hear about folks who just graduated from college and can't find a job? Or jobs that teenagers used to work that are not being staffed by adults. Used to be when you pulled through the drivethru at a McDonald's, you were served by nothing but teenagers. The manager on the clock might even be one. Notice how that's changed? Yeah ... that. Blacks and women took a slightly worse hit than other demographics as well.
Meanwhile, the older that you get the more likely that you're working well past retirement age. Participation rates of everyone over 55 is way up. Every group under 55 has gone down in LFPR.
The reality is that the Democrats want to take credit for fixing the economy when it ain't fixed. Pointing at "job creation" (which is almost never net job creation), the nearly useless Unemployment Rate, and many other things are a smokescreen to cover the failure of the Obama era Democrats to accomplish much of anything. Incidentally, why did gas prices only drop when the Republicans had taken both houses of congress?? Why couldn't the Dems get it done??
I'm neither Republican nor Democrat, but I dislike it when either side fudges the numbers and cooks the books to make it look like they've accomplished something big. LFPR seems to have flatlined, but until we see it going back up, the real health of the economy is still not great.
In Texas, your taxes are determined by your house value and taxed as a percentage; therefore, if they say your home's value increased by 10%, your taxes (which are a fixed rate based upon home value) increase by 10%.
The state caps the appraisal districts from raising the taxable appraisal value by more than 10% per year assuming it is a private homesteaded residence. Some politicians, such as Dan Patrick, are working towards getting that cap down to 3% per year.
Many of them have been fighting hard against such caps and other property tax relief measures.
I would like to see the property tax changed so that money is either gathered via a sales tax or an income tax. I also do not mind a tax when you go to sell your home. We have to pay for services, that just a fact of life, but the idea that you never own your home but just pay to rent it from the government is quite un-American.
You will never own a piece of property outright in this country ever again. That's been the American way for decades. Car and other personal belongings are taxed in some states such as VA and is a percentile of what market value is. It applies to all motor vehicles as well as boats or you don't drive it.
And when you throw LFPR at Dems they immediately say, "It's all old people retiring." It isn't. The hardest hit demographics: 16-24 years olds. Ever hear about folks who just graduated from college and can't find a job? Or jobs that teenagers used to work that are not being staffed by adults. Used to be when you pulled through the drivethru at a McDonald's, you were served by nothing but teenagers. The manager on the clock might even be one. Notice how that's changed? Yeah ... that. Blacks and women took a slightly worse hit than other demographics as well.
I'm neither Republican nor Democrat, but I dislike it when either side fudges the numbers and cooks the books to make it look like they've accomplished something big. LFPR seems to have flatlined, but until we see it going back up, the real health of the economy is still not great.
What is our labor participation rate? That is truly the real measure.
Additionally, wages might have gone up 2.5%, but my property taxes increased 10%.
No, it is not. The LFPR is subject to rise and fall based on demographic/societal shifts, that has always been the case. It only became the go-to statistic for conservatives when it began dropping under Obama.
LFPR was much higher under Carter than Eisenhower. Would anyone in their right mind argue that the economy of the late-70s was better?
Great unbiased source there: A report from the office of the President of the United States. I would fully expect President Obama and his underlings to be leading the charge for the "It's just baby boomers" excuses. And since there is literally an endless array of ways to spin numbers, I've no doubt he did plenty of that.
As of the end of 2014, every demographic under 55 was still down significantly in LFPR. Men, women, teenagers, blacks, whites, hispanics, etc. We won't have new demographic-based numbers until after 2016, but the song and dance that Obama and his faithful subjects have been spinning since he took office: "It's all baby boomers." No. No it isn't.
Show me numbers where the LFPR is recovering for 16 to 55 year olds. Anything else is just so much sound and noise signifying nothing.
No, it is not. The LFPR is subject to rise and fall based on demographic/societal shifts, that has always been the case. It only became the go-to statistic for conservatives when it began dropping under Obama.
LFPR was much higher under Carter than Eisenhower. Would anyone in their right mind argue that the economy of the late-70s was better?
The LFPR only becomes meaningful after women are fully integrated into the workforce -- roughly 1990. Until then it was a lousy indicator of anything because it counted women, but a ton of women weren't interested in joining the workforce. But starting in 1945, there was a steady cultural shift that saw the women entering the workforce in gradually increasing numbers. That is exactly what you're seeing when comparing Eisenhower and Carter.
Now that women are fully integrated into the workforce, their steady influx no longer screws up LFPR as a number. Meanwhile, LFPR is far more useful than Unemployment Rate. Unlike UR, it's just the pure percentage of working-aged Americans that are currently employed. No gimmicks. No easy way to cook the books.
It might be slightly better if it excluded all Americans over 60. Trouble is, increasingly, Americans over 60 are continuing to work. Case in point, my dad. He retired as a high school history teacher and also retired after serving 20 years in the Army National Guard. He then went on to take a position as professor at a university for about 8 years. So if you asked the question, "Is he over 60?" the answer is "Yes." Did he retire? Yes. But was he still working? Yes. The numbers for your over 55 crowd in terms of LFPR are way up. Over 70 has nearly doubled in the last 15 years. Makes it hard to exclude them your over 60 crowd.
You will never own a piece of property outright in this country ever again. That's been the American way for decades. Car and other personal belongings are taxed in some states such as VA and is a percentile of what market value is. It applies to all motor vehicles as well as boats or you don't drive it.
And the founders are rolling in their graves over this.
When it comes to local and state elections of politicians, property tax is essentially my ONLY concern. If they haven't done anything to address the property tax problem in a positive way, they will not get my vote. Obviously, some offices like sheriff, as an example, have nothing they can do about property taxes, so it will not be a factor; however, a large number of positions do have something to do with property taxes.
I've had it with righties claiming that the LFPR means anything. They say it's evident that people aren't looking because they think there is a slim chance of finding a job.
Yet, a great number of those not in the labor force will be buying lottery tickets in hopes of the far slimmer chance of winning Saturday's $800,000,000 PowerBall.
Last edited by SyraBrian; 01-08-2016 at 02:50 PM..
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