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ISIL trapped in Syria and no longer capable of carrying out attacks outside the country
“Terrorist combat units” intent on wreaking havoc in Europe can no longer leave Isil’s de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa via Turkey, said Brett McGurk, special presidential envoy for the global coalition against Isil.
“Not too long ago, what they [Isil] would do is plan a terrorist attack in Raqqa, they would train a unit – kind of a terrorist combat unit – they would then infiltrate out… and go conduct an attack such as in Paris or in the Brussels airport” he said. “That’s what they used to do, and they were developing that capacity. They cannot do that anymore.”
If you watch cable news or follow the president’s Twitter feed, you might be under the impression that the U.S. is heading to war with North Korea. But somebody, it seems, forgot to loop in the U.S. military.
North Korea is threatening to launch missiles toward Guam; U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Friday morning that military options were “locked and loaded;” NBC News ran a story Wednesday claiming the U.S. had ”prepared a plan” to strike North Korean missile sites with B-1 bombers.
But while the rhetoric is nearing a fever pitch in D.C., out in the Pacific you’d never know the world was on the brink of nuclear war.
In Yokosuka, Japan, the U.S. Navy’s forward-deployed ready aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan sits peacefully pier-side, along with the U.S. 7th Fleet command ship Blue Ridge. On the Korean Peninsula, the State Department has not advised American citizens to leave the country and U.S. military family members are not being evacuated. No Marines are being loaded on amphibious ships; no sailors have been recalled off leave to prepare for emergency operations; and no ballistic missile defense ships have been sortied to North Korea, the waters off Japan or to Guam, three sources said.
The frenzied rhetoric being propelled by the president’s words and fed back by the news cycle is, for the second time this year, failing to match what’s actually happening, sources told Defense News.
Publicly, the U.S. military is saying that the United States maintains a high state of readiness to respond to any attacks.
“We always maintain a high state of readiness and have the capabilities to counter any threat, to include those from North Korea,” Marine Lt. Col. Christopher Logan said in a statement.
But privately, military and U.S. officials are hard-pressed to avoid a sense of déjà vu. In April, a confusing statement from U.S. 3rd Fleet about the carrier Carl Vinson led the news media and, it seemed, the White House to believe the ship was steaming full-speed toward North Korea to send a message.
ISIL is on its last legs. There's a large salient going east from Palmyra, the main supply route runs right up the middle and the SAA and Russians are going to amputate this salient. This will form a pocket and whatever is in the pocket will cease to exist unless it can get away or just surrenders. That's not likely.
US struck Syrian government forces again while they were engaged with ISIS
Trump admin rudderless after Bannon departure
Bannon’s exit will also impact Trump’s foreign policies. Where things are going to be very different from now on is that Bannon was truly anti-empire, anti-war, anti-interventionism in the US foreign policies. He opposed the missile strike in Syria; he was deeply sceptical about US involvement in the Syrian war; he didn’t favour US intervention for regime change in Venezuela; he was dead against a war in the Korean Peninsula; and, he counselled US disengagement from Afghanistan and pressed for an end to the war. Only last Thursday, New York Times had carried an insightful report authored by Mark Lander on Bannon’s world-view and how that put him in the crosshairs of the generals. (Times)
Without the check and balance that Bannon represented, the military hawks and interventionists get the upper hand in policy making in the White House – Chief of Staff General Kelly, Defence Secretary James Mattis and National Security Advisor HR McMaster. Three generals in virtual control of US foreign policy – this is an unprecedented situation in US political history. And none of them has been trained to evaluate or take political decisions.
US struck Syrian government forces again while they were engaged with ISIS
Trump admin rudderless after Bannon departure
Bannon’s exit will also impact Trump’s foreign policies. Where things are going to be very different from now on is that Bannon was truly anti-empire, anti-war, anti-interventionism in the US foreign policies. He opposed the missile strike in Syria; he was deeply sceptical about US involvement in the Syrian war; he didn’t favour US intervention for regime change in Venezuela; he was dead against a war in the Korean Peninsula; and, he counselled US disengagement from Afghanistan and pressed for an end to the war. Only last Thursday, New York Times had carried an insightful report authored by Mark Lander on Bannon’s world-view and how that put him in the crosshairs of the generals. (Times)
Without the check and balance that Bannon represented, the military hawks and interventionists get the upper hand in policy making in the White House – Chief of Staff General Kelly, Defence Secretary James Mattis and National Security Advisor HR McMaster. Three generals in virtual control of US foreign policy – this is an unprecedented situation in US political history. And none of them has been trained to evaluate or take political decisions.
It would be an error to presume that former generals are more interventionist (especially at miltary cost) than civilian leaders. Military leaders are more concretely aware of the costs than civilians (particularly one who never served himself.
And although they never made political decisions while in uniform, they did serve as advisers to those who did--and were at least in the room.
Unlike the current president.
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