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Old 04-18-2016, 04:21 AM
 
4,504 posts, read 3,015,027 times
Reputation: 9631

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Quote:
Originally Posted by chronic65 View Post
For a week or more they have been predicting increasing percentages of rain. Yesterday it was 100% for Saturday night and Sunday. "The computer models all agree" Lots of rain, rain and more rain. I just now looked at the forecast. Percentages down, amounts of rain significantly down. This goes on day after day after day. They never know. Most of the rain we gets comes rather unexpectedly. They are idiots and I am an idiot for putting in credence in their "forecast".

Well, the point I want to make is these are the same people that are so dang certain the mankind is causing global warming or cooling or oceans rising or drought or you name it.

They don't know squat!

Looking out their windows would give them more accurate forecasts.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank DeForrest View Post
Well it's not a good idea to rely on the govt for the weather report...or anything else for that matter.
Truer words were never spoken.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz View Post
I never liked how they classify their rain percentages. Today we had a 30% chance but virtually everyone got a little something, albeit it was very scattered.

Other days there's a 60% chance and we get nothing. Usually I take their percentage chances and cut them by a third to a half to calculate the real chance most of the time, with the exception of a 100% chance.. they usually nail that one down most of the time.

They've gotten better though.... I find the GFS model is the most accurate with snowfall, though I don't have access to all the weather models.
30% doesn't mean there's a 30% chance of rain area wide. It means 30% of a given area will likely see rain.


It's very misleading.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceist View Post
Try actually reading the IPCC report yourself instead of unsceptically swallowing and repeating whatever some conspiracy blog claims.
Why are you arguing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by marlinfshr View Post
I work on charter boats out of the Mid-Atlantic and we'll run upwards of 100 miles for a days fishing, so needless to say, weather is very important to us as too windy can be unsafe and everybody (including me) likes flat calm. The weather forcasts suck but in reality, I think they do the best they can for something that is unpredictable. The bad ones are the windy forecasts when it is still not blowing and the people call before they leave home 3 hours away to see what we think. those calls have been about 50/50 as you hate to have somebody drive 3 hours and not go, but at the same token, it sucks to cancel and wake up in the morning with no wind. With clients closer to the boat, unless it is blowing that night and the forecast is for wind the next day, we usually just have them come in the morning. If it's blowing, we don't go, If it's still, we'll go.

Back in my younger days I remember us putting faith in the forcasts many nights when they called for wind and going to the bar to spend our earnings for the day, convinced the next day would be cancelled as the giant American flag would be standing straight out and going hard. Many a night we would watch that flag just fall right down the poll come closing time and then reality would sink in. We would be going the next day. Sure can't do those days any more!

I'd really hate to be a weatherman!
Red skies in the morning, sailors take warning.


Red skies at night, sailor's delight.

Last edited by MyNameIsBellaMia; 04-18-2016 at 04:36 AM..

 
Old 04-18-2016, 05:43 AM
 
17,842 posts, read 14,347,878 times
Reputation: 4113
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsBellaMia View Post


Why are you arguing?

Red skies in the morning, sailors take warning.


Red skies at night, sailor's delight.
What are you rambling about?
 
Old 04-18-2016, 03:56 PM
 
46,865 posts, read 25,830,287 times
Reputation: 29343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceist View Post
What are you rambling about?
As far as I can tell, the fact that government weather services provide an extremely reliable and useful product at a good price just doesn't fit well with certain ideologies. And as nobody would believe them if they claimed they could launch their own weather satellites, they pretend that old wives' tales and sailor's sayings and looking out the window are somehow just as valid.

Next up: Why sextants provide much better results than relying on government for GPS. Or, I suppose, some would navigate by looking out a porthole.
 
Old 04-19-2016, 01:07 AM
 
Location: honolulu
1,729 posts, read 1,531,925 times
Reputation: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronic65 View Post
For a week or more they have been predicting increasing percentages of rain. Yesterday it was 100% for Saturday night and Sunday. "The computer models all agree" Lots of rain, rain and more rain. I just now looked at the forecast. Percentages down, amounts of rain significantly down. This goes on day after day after day. They never know. Most of the rain we gets comes rather unexpectedly. They are idiots and I am an idiot for putting in credence in their "forecast".

Well, the point I want to make is these are the same people that are so dang certain the mankind is causing global warming or cooling or oceans rising or drought or you name it.

They don't know squat!
this guy might give you a different insight to the weather...

https://www.youtube.com/user/1PacificRedwood/videos
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