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Old 07-06-2016, 07:26 PM
 
18,802 posts, read 8,469,715 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stymie13 View Post
Have you been watching the treasury negative yield?

You can think it'll forever rise but Greece is such a poor example as was Zimbabwe Argentina and Japan.

When people/entities see a declining/negative return on bonds, it fails. Are we there yet? Not quite. To say confidence is not declining is false.
The low Treasury yields are optional/policy. Set by the Treasury/Fed. And they are low to stimulate business. They could set them high and things would only get worse. Why set them high when the demand is so high with low rates? I think you have your cart ahead of your hose.

IMO rates are going nowhere but down short term. And still many entities all over the world will continue to invest and hold our debt. Safe keeping, secure and stable. Guaranteed. Meager return, but that is only part of it. Many entities all over the world desire or are required to hold AAA/Treasuries. And that alone is huge volume/demand.
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Old 07-06-2016, 07:45 PM
 
Location: louisville
4,754 posts, read 2,738,952 times
Reputation: 1721
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
The low Treasury yields are optional/policy. Set by the Treasury/Fed. And they are low to stimulate business. They could set them high and things would only get worse. Why set them high when the demand is so high with low rates? I think you have your cart ahead of your hose.

IMO rates are going nowhere but down short term. And still many entities all over the world will continue to invest and hold our debt. Safe keeping, secure and stable. Guaranteed. Meager return, but that is only part of it. Many entities all over the world desire or are required to hold AAA/Treasuries. And that alone is huge volume/demand.
No, they are not. They are the basis of confidence in long term yield. Where to park money. The ONLY reason it's bought is everything else is in flux. US principles:

Real estate?
Stocks?


Hell that doesn't even include why. Subprime leases... The turn in rate since the QE bailouts don't start till sept of this year.

I respect your op. We just disagree in our QE policy and where it shifts liability, assets, and people's willingness to fork over their income. This auto bubble will just be one more hit. What bubble is left to pop? Foreign bought bonds has decreased every year since 12. Yes local and state buys... They still think they'll get a return. When the 'security' no longer returns, inflation can't be exported.
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Old 07-06-2016, 08:33 PM
 
18,802 posts, read 8,469,715 times
Reputation: 4130
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stymie13 View Post
No, they are not. They are the basis of confidence in long term yield. Where to park money. The ONLY reason it's bought is everything else is in flux. US principles:

Real estate?
Stocks?


Hell that doesn't even include why. Subprime leases... The turn in rate since the QE bailouts don't start till sept of this year.

I respect your op. We just disagree in our QE policy and where it shifts liability, assets, and people's willingness to fork over their income. This auto bubble will just be one more hit. What bubble is left to pop? Foreign bought bonds has decreased every year since 12. Yes local and state buys... They still think they'll get a return. When the 'security' no longer returns, inflation can't be exported.
Maybe you misunderstand me. I have only been talking of sovereign debt. Sure there are debt bubbles that will pop in the private sector, a not rare occurrence.

No one is going to go out and invest in longer term junk bonds with very low rates. That makes no sense. But it does with sovereign debt.

Sure QE helps create the next bubble, that's one of the potential negatives of low interest rate policies. The basic idea being to stimulate lending/borrowing. It has helped me, might have helped many people and business depending and who or what you do with money. But it also encourages more, and then maybe too much risk. Se la vie.
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