2020 - How Do The Democrats Position Themselves For The Next Election? (Reagan, politicians)
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I just want to say again, because I'm not sure everyone got this in the first post - regardless of whether Clinton wins or loses this election, it's clear that the Democratic Party has major problems right now. They do not have a good candidate or a good message this year, and it's only by their extreme good fortune that they are even in contention for the White House. Whether she wins or loses, the Democrats are probably going to have to do something very different in 2020 if they want to capture a majority.
Right now they're running against the worst candidate in the history of American politics, and they can barely crack 40% - that's an enormous problem, and no matter who wins this year, they need to get it fixed by 2020 or they will be toast. I'm trying to get a discussion going on what they need to do in the next 4 years to fix that. I know that nobody who didn't get that from the opening post probably won't bother reading this far down, but I thought I'd give it one more try anyway.
But at any rate, thanks to those who have answered so far. Bartender! A round of reps for everyone!
So. Where do the Blues go from here? I think we can safely assume Hillary will be President for the next 4 years, but do you see the Democrats sticking with her in 2020?
They're catching a break of literally historical proportions this year, because almost any Republican candidate other than Trump would probably be destroying her in the general election. They can't count on the GOP making the same mistake twice. No matter how dysfunctional the Republicans are, even they should be bright enough to understand what they screwed up here, and learn not to do it again. In 2020, they're going to run someone who can beat her. With as many people in this country who hate her and distrust her, do you think the Democrats will take the risk of running her for re-election, or will she be gently "stepped aside" for the good of the party?
Or - let's assume she loses. What does the party leadership take away from that? Do they clean house somewhat and shift more toward the Bernie demographic, or double-down on the old-school, corporatist/globalist "machine politics" that they employed to install Hillary as the nominee this year?
One thing that's becoming more clear every day is that even though a plurality of people would apparently prefer her to the disaster that is Trump, only a small percentage of the electorate seems genuinely enthusiastic or optimistic about electing her President. When you're running against arguably the worst candidate in the history of the United States, you can - maybe - get away with that once, but you're sure not going to get away with it twice. Win or lose, the Democrats need to be giving some serious thought to where they go in 2020. What lessons do you think they need to learn here, and what lessons do you think they will learn?
I really don't want this thread to descend into another moronic cesspool of insults and taunts about who's going to win and which candidate is the biggest liar or possessed by devils, so if the broken records here would just save that tedious crap for the other threads, it would be appreciated. Kthanx.
One factor is the 2018 midterms where the Dems have a huge Senatorial disadvantage. If Clinton wins and the prediction of a 3 seat GOP Senate and 18 seat House loss hold true. That COULD position the GOP for an even bigger share of Congress in 18 than was achieved in 14. What will the 2020 election look like in the backdrop of 265-170 GOP house and 55-45 GOP Senate.
In 2020, they'll do what they're doing this year, and already did in 2012.
Cheat, lie, buy/steal it. Even if they didn't in the past, and aren't now, by 2020, it will certainly be the only way. If people are to blind to see it by now, they'll either wake up, or give up by '20.
There is a good chance Trump wins.
Trump fills stadiums and when Clintn gets out she can't fill a high school gym.
Polling and press has been doing their best to drag her into office, but I don't think that will happen.
So in 2020 look for Dems to as usual try to borrow or take the treasury to buy votes as usual I guess.
Best of luck to you.
While rallies are exciting for those who attend, they have almost no effect at all on the thousands of voters who didn't go.
Trump is now just wasting time and energy holding them. At this late stage, the only way he can reach the massive number of voters he needs is through heavy advertising on all the media, while using smaller public appearances to keep his visibility up on the nightly news.
He has to have some of both to win. Clinton already knows that, and she's now spending on TV much more. Clinton saves her personal appearances for the districts she wants and/or needs the most to win.
Why did Trump even bother with the rally in Connecticut last week? He was in such solid blue territory it hasn't voted red for over 50 years, and he failed to change any minds. It is typical of how he's squandering the limited time he has left to turn it around for him.
The only thing we can safely assume is that Hillary has a lot of issues just hanging from here extremely deteriorating health to her email and lying to Congress issues.
2020 the Dems could also be very bleak as they try to recover from what they have done in the primary season and running a one-legged horse in the race for POTUS.
I totally agree with the OP that Democrats should be very concerned about the 2020 election. However, I suspect that many Democrats will become even more conceited after Clinton easily defeats Trump (who is a uniquely flawed candidate, as has been pointed out). Following this election, many Democratic partisans will continue to believe that demographics and the "blue wall" will guarantee victories in presidential elections for all time to come. Meanwhile, the GOP will likely install superdelegates in time for 2020 (to make sure that a disaster such as Trump never happens again), and the American public will be especially hungry for change after 12 years of Democratic rule.
Last edited by Dole-McCain Republican; 08-18-2016 at 02:21 PM..
There is a good chance Trump wins.
Trump fills stadiums and when Clintn gets out she can't fill a high school gym.
Polling and press has been doing their best to drag her into office, but I don't think that will happen.
So in 2020 look for Dems to as usual try to borrow or take the treasury to buy votes as usual I guess.
Like Britext, or what ever they are calling it, polling people at home is not the same as getting them excited enough to get out the door and take the time to go vote.
One factor is the 2018 midterms where the Dems have a huge Senatorial disadvantage. If Clinton wins and the prediction of a 3 seat GOP Senate and 18 seat House loss hold true. That COULD position the GOP for an even bigger share of Congress in 18 than was achieved in 14. What will the 2020 election look like in the backdrop of 265-170 GOP house and 55-45 GOP Senate.
I agree that the Democrats are likely to have an absolutely devastating year in 2018.
In one respect, this concerns me, because I fear that the GOP will become overconfident following success in the midterm elections (which is indeed what happened after 1994, 2010, & 2014). However, I am hopeful that Republicans will realize--based upon the recent history that I just pointed out--that success in midterm elections does not foreshadow success in presidential elections.
Meanwhile, there is also danger for Democrats if the GOP does really well in 2018. Specifically, a President Hillary Clinton may be inclined to compromise with a Republican Congress. This is indeed what happened with Bill Clinton after 1994; yet, we all know that the much more liberal Obama never sought any meaningful compromise with the GOP following the 2010 & 2014 elections. Unfortunately, it will be much harder for Hillary to compromise with the GOP than it was for her husband, because the Democratic Party has moved so far to the left during the Obama Era. If Hillary "triangulates" in much the same way that her husband did, I suspect that there will be massive revolt from the far-left, and such revolt would put her in danger of losing the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination.
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