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I hope there won't be any kind of Civil War. But if it does come down to some kind of fight, I think the side that will have the best chance of winning, is the side that has the largest surplus of weapons from which to fight width.
Something tells me that if such a horror does come to pass-- and recent days have painfully indicated that the OP may well be right-- that it'll be far more than just two sides. It'll be the ugliest kind of Civil War, like the one in the former Yugoslavia, where it basically splinters into many sides with overlap in these and other categories, all fighting each other bitterly. Seems like even the Red States can't stand each other much and many "Blue" groups really don't like each other either, plus there are Blue regions in Red States and Red regions in Blue states, and many areas where allies in one area hate each other in others. North America is big and (for now) still rich enough that we'd probably splinter along all kinds of these lines. Ugly, nasty and very scary.
How do you know what people were saying prior to the first civil war? Just curious.
And sure it is possible. I wouldn't say it's probable.
Most likely the protests will settle down and in a weeks time people will have forgotten all about them.
I really doubt that, especially if the economy goes sour, usually when civil wars happen there's a lot of economic and social discontent underneath it and that's happening now. Despite the rosy numbers on the economy Americans as a whole are very anxious because everything is getting so much more insanely expensive that even presumably wealthy people can't afford basics like housing or healthcare anymore. And if we do enter a full flown recession on top of that, becoming a Depression, watch out. We're in an epic credit bubble right now that's starting to unwind. All bets are off from there. When people have less and less to lose and or less and less to look forward to, civil wars happen. I'm certainly hoping it doesn't lead to that over next few years, but wouldn't be surprised either.
People didn't fight each other because they hated each other during the civil war. Soldiers from opposing sides routinely shared cigarettes and played cards on picket lines. In some cases a soldier would wander into an opposing camp and see that they had more rations than he did and he would change sides. They would call a truce during berry picking season so they could gather berries together.
I hate to burst the hate fantasy that one day there will be a war and you will get card blanche to kill everyone you hate in a civil war. Most of us have nothing as valuable as a slave was to fight for anyway.
You sort of contradict your own point. Vast majority of CSA soldiers in the Civil war didn't have slaves to fight for either. They still fought and killed each other. To the tune of almost 1 million people. The same sort of acts of occasional friendliness happened in WWI and the Yugoslavian civil war too. And then they just continued slaughtering each other. These things can happen when differences really do become irreconcilable, even between neighbors and families as happened in the US Civil war and Yugoslavia conflict.
To reiterate, IMHO, a 2nd American Civil War is a nearly impossible eventuality in the present day.
We are not even close to being there yet, notwithstanding the drama queens along with the twisted fantasies.
Personally, I hope American people never lose strength & courage & never forget the right & responsibility to protest.
While I generally agree with you that it's improbably (and i'm very much on your side in hoping it doesn't happen), I find the kind of complacency you seem to express to be bothersome. Everyone was saying the same thing about the first civil war in the US. And about WWI. The Yugoslav civil war where good friends and neighbors took up arms against each other. Even Syria, which had been a relatively peaceful and prosperous state before the recent civil war there. Everyone said the same thing. Couldn't possibly happen. People are too prosperous and interdependent. But then it did.
The problem with this complacency is that it lets underlying deep problems and divisions fester. And this in a time when the US economy is on very shaky ground. Even though a few numbers look good, the cost of living is so high for even basic things that a lot of Americans are worried as it is, and if a full blown recession let alone Depression arrives and people feel like they have less to lose, even nastier things can easily happen. I've worked in dozens of countries before and been in the US for decades, and the bitterness and animosity in the USA right now is by far the worst I've ever seen. And it's based on very deep rooted reasons that aren't being addressed, mainly an out of touch elite-- and this is both political parties, even with Trump's election-- that's indulging in cronyism while quality of life for Americans as a whole deteriorates. This in fact is THE big reason why civil wars DO happen, even in otherwise rich and prosperous countries-- not that people are poor, but because people used to not be poor but start to become poor (or fear they might). It's the fear of downward mobility, of loss of privileges or strength that leads to war. And that's where the US is right now and moving more in that direction. Be very, very careful about such complacent attitudes.
Unless the the weapons are way out of balance , the one who controls the strategic resources will win. War is supply lines,food, gasoline, engineers, bulldozers and much more.
However why fight ? Why not agree to part ways? Why not just go back to the Articles of Confederation? The biggest argument of the Federalists was because they had very powerful enemies in Europe. They would have never survived on their own.
I actually think (hope?) that if divisions in the USA do become that bad, that this is the path the country goes down-- a peaceful and together agreed upon separation like the Czechs and Slovaks, or the Russians and the rest in the USSR. Far preferable to a civil war if things go in that kind of direction.
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LOL
