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Old 12-21-2016, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,504,338 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
It will be an off-year election when many Democrats tend to stay home.
Not me, I always vote in midterms
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Old 12-21-2016, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,762 posts, read 40,870,361 times
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Well, when California secedes, that's two less Democrat Senators right there.

Republicans won't even have to spend any money.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:08 AM
 
304 posts, read 159,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
Well, when California secedes, that's two less Democrat Senators right there.

Republicans won't even have to spend any money.
Wishful thinking..just like all the Dems thinking Texas was going to secede.

Like I have said its easier to play Offense than defense in politics. Lets see what Trump does but the mid-terms like most all midterms before hand are all about defending the president for the party in power.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:10 AM
 
1,008 posts, read 485,102 times
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That is not a friendly map for the Democrats.

Good.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Texas
38,859 posts, read 25,432,455 times
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Lightbulb What are the Democrat's prospects for retaking the Senate in 2018?

Not good, as it looks right now.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:34 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,473,888 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyboy84 View Post
Wishful thinking..just like all the Dems thinking Texas was going to secede.

Like I have said its easier to play Offense than defense in politics. Lets see what Trump does but the mid-terms like most all midterms before hand are all about defending the president for the party in power.
Except it will not be Trump and the Republicans on defense in 2018. Tbh battle will be for the US Senate, with the Democrats defending 25 seats and the Republicans only 8, as described in more detail in the OP. In fact, the Republicans will be pushing hard for a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in 2018. If they succeed, then entitlement reform will be inevitable.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:04 PM
 
17,352 posts, read 9,180,345 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
Well, when California secedes, that's two less Democrat Senators right there.

Republicans won't even have to spend any money.
California secession organizers say they've opened an embassy -- in Moscow |LA Times - 12/20/16

California gained an embassy in Russia last weekend, at least in the eyes of those who have promised to seek a statewide vote on secession, nicknamed "Calexit," in 2018.

"We want to start laying the groundwork for a dialogue about an independent California joining the United Nations now," he said in an email Monday.

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Old 12-21-2016, 01:13 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,113 posts, read 2,168,061 times
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Trump carried 30 states this year and Clinton won just 20 - even if hers tended to have larger populations. If states vote for senators of the same party consistent with their 2016 presidential choice going forward, Republicans will hold a filibuster-proof majority of 61 seats after the 2018 midterms. The only remaining senators from the opposite party for their respective states would be Republicans Gardner (CO) and Collins (ME), and Democrat Peters (MI), who are all up for re-election in 2020.

I don't necessarily think Democrats will lose all the states won by Trump this year in the 2018 Senate elections, but this imbalance underscores that the party needs to make serious changes to better appeal to voters in a broader set of geographies. They have minimal chance of winning back the Senate for a long time if half the states are going to choose Republicans by default in virtually every statewide race. The party is going to need to rebuild from the ground up and that will be easier said than done, even if many voters will not be pleased with the policies enacted by the Trump administration and Republican Congress.
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Old 06-01-2017, 01:15 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,473,888 times
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The Democrats and their media hack enablers have gone all-in with the idea that since Greg Gianforte (R-MT) only won his Montana House seat by 6 points instead of the 20 points that Trump won Montana by in November, it obviously goes to follow that Montana (and the country) is moving rapidly towards becoming blue and that the Republicans are in dire straights leading up to the 2018 elections.

The problem with that analysis is that Greg Gianforte was also on the ballot in November 2016 for Governor of Montana, and lost by 4 points. So by the logic the Democrats are trying to use, his 6 point victory in the special election is actually a 10 point positive swing for Republicans. But Democrats are not generally inclined to let facts get in the way of good "narrative".

The line from the article below says it well: "You need no ghost to come from the grave to tell you that when your policies are 6 percent less popular than misdemeanor assault, you need new policies."

Quote:
Democrats Should Fear the 2018 Midterms
Media echo chamber predicts GOP doom, papers over crisis of ideas in Democratic Party

The new narrative emerging from the Montana special election is that Republicans should be spooked about the 2018 midterm elections. The fallacy-ridden logic is that seven months ago President Trump won Montana by a 20-point margin, but in the special election the Republican candidate, Greg Gianforte, only won by 6 points. Ergo, Montana has become 15 points less Republican than it was last November.

A CBS News article stated that “Gianforte’s single-digit win paled next to Trump’s 20-point romp in Montana in November, a sign that Republicans may have to work hard to defend some of their most secure seats to maintain control of Congress.”

Matthew Yglesias wrote for Vox, “If Republicans are winning in places like Montana by just 7 percentage points, then they are in extreme peril of losing their House majority in November 2018.”

This narrative is supposed to have Republicans spinning their legs Scooby-Doo-style as they desperately try to scurry away from President Trump and his agenda. But the narrative is built upon the same sort of Magic 8-Ball, political anti-science that led to the special Madam President issue of Newsweek landing on magazine racks before the 2016 election. It’s just the latest example of somebody screaming an election prophecy into the echo chamber and nobody bothering to notice that it rests on absurd assumptions and ignores important facts.

For instance, did the mainstream media forget that Gianforte has been on a Montana ballot before?

They’re dropping Kasich-wins-Ohio quantities of metaphorical confetti over Gianforte’s narrow 6-point win. They’re screaming, “Trump won by 20. Gianforte only won by 6. Montana is basically blue now. End of story.” The only problem is that when Trump won Montana by 20 points last November, guess who else was on the ballot that day. Greg Gianforte!

Gianforte ran for governor against Democrat incumbent Steve Bullock, and Gianforte lost by 4 points. That’s right! All those same voters who gave Trump a 20-point landslide on election day went right down the ballot and voted against Greg Gianforte. Gianforte lost by 4 last November but won by 6 points in the special election, so — by the logic underlying the media’s pretend political science — Montana voters are now much more Republican than they were seven months ago!


More at the link....
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