If the recession held off another year, could McCain have won in 2008?

[EDnurse]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

Let's say 2008 looked much like 2007 economically. Looming storm clouds but most people aren't feeling it yet. Does anybody think it's possible McCain could have come out on top in 2008? It's interesting to think about the fact that over the Summer of 2008, they were neck and neck in the polls. It was only after the September and October stock market crashes that Obama solidified his lead.

No. You're dreaming.

Stock market crashes have consequences.

[Loveshiscountry]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

Let's say 2008 looked much like 2007 economically. Looming storm clouds but most people aren't feeling it yet. Does anybody think it's possible McCain could have come out on top in 2008? It's interesting to think about the fact that over the Summer of 2008, they were neck and neck in the polls. It was only after the September and October stock market crashes that Obama solidified his lead.

McCain ran a weak campaign. He could have rightfully gone after Obama for attending Reverend Racists Church but he didn't.

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by RedZin

Palin tanked that election for him.

I knew SO many people who were Independents and moderate Democrats who were heavily considering him before he brought her onto his ticket.

Conservatives were already guaranteed to vote for him, for the most part.

I think that election was his to lose, really.

He's not viewed as highly conservative in his politics (because he's not) and that appealed to many middle of the road voters.

Palin offended most of them. She cost him the election. It's funny that Republicans still seem to like that idiot.

It's her fault that Obama won.

I agree, to a degree.
Palin split the Republican voters. They either loved her or hated her with deep devotion or deep alarm.
At the same time, she consolidated the Democratic voters, who almost universally hated her.

I think a larger reason why McCain lost was his strong support for Bush's war. It's been forgotten a lot now, but during 2006 and 2007, we were losing more of our soldiers daily to IED's than we lost fighting the Iraqi army, and our occupation seemed to be endless. The costs of the war were finally beginning to hit home hard.
Bush's complete failure with the war rubbed off on his party and on McCain the war hawk in particular.

All the early support for the war had evaporated. All the voters wanted was out of it, the sooner the better. No one believed McCain would ever end it.

That was in addition to some other factors that were against McCain. One was his lack of funds. He had squandered so much so early that his campaign was hobbled, and he won his nomination so early that all the attention and the money swung to the tight Democratic primary, which dominated the media.

The bank collapse came in 2008, but the recession started hurting in 2006. Jobs were a big issue in 2008, and the Republicans were blamed for the lack of them.

Palin did give McCain a substantial bounce at the convention, and if she had been as good at speaking off the cuff as she was when she memorized a speech, she might have made it a closer race.

But by the end, she had disintegrated so far that McCain was forced to contradict her words in his own speeches. That really hurt them both.