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If the Trump admin is successful, the republicans will rule for 50 years
Not unless they improve with minorities and white college. The white non-college voting bloc is shrinking with each four year cycle and has been shrinking steadily for 25 years.
You can only milk that segment for so long without broadening the base, and Trump certainly isn't doing that.
Unlike you, most of us have a problem with illegal immigration and immigration under the false pretense of "refugee" status. Refugee status these days means pretty much allowing anyone that would have to sneak in, in under refugee status. It's bogus.
Ten bucks you are an anchor kid too huh. They should just take it for what it's worth. They got lucky and gamed the system.
Nope, not an anchor. 4th generation American, and WWII and Korean War combat veterans
Sorry to burst your bubble
Not unless they improve with minorities and white college. The white non-college voting bloc is shrinking with each four year cycle and has been shrinking steadily for 25 years.
You can only milk that segment for so long without broadening the base, and Trump certainly isn't doing that.
Wrong. The percentage non-white barely moved 2012-2016. The realty is BO vastly spiked black voter turnout-which was an aberration. The Rust Belt Reagan Dems came home, and that belt has not diversified in demographics to the extent CaliMexico has. Nor will it diversify. Acela Belt plus West Coast <270 and after the next census, 10 less than 2016.
Your party must nominate someone who can credibly demonstrate being against NAFTA, TPP, and other one-sided deals credibly, which means losing Wall St as a big donor. The Rust Belt will no doubt stay livid at those dismissive of Blue Collar, non college grad populations. Rust Belt plus Red Wall, as you saw this year, has 3 dozen ECs to spare, close to 4 dozen post census EC shift.
This entire 'working class' "argument" is utter nonsense.
Huge populations of college educated vote for Trump too. In fact, I would think most of the White college educated is for the Republicans
Trump carried white non-college nationally by a whopping 37% (66% to 29%).
He carried white college grads by 3% (48% to 45%).
There's been a large variance between the two groups for a very long time. Over the past 25 years, white non-college voters share of total votes cast have been shrinking on average by 3% form one POTUS election to the next. Say you have a universe of 100 voters and you're losing 3 every year to demographic change. Those three are all white non-college and voted nationally for Trump by 37%. One of the three replacement voters is a white college grad, which supported Trump, but by only 3%. The other 2 replacement voters are minority, who are a total group voted D +53.
Since we elect Presidents by electoral college votes, it's a state by state battle, but some variation of that demographic change is playing out in every state. The GOP has been overly dependent on white non-college voters for a very long time. Since the voting share of white non-college is continuing to shrink, there will come a point where even with massive turnout, they don't produce enough votes to win without much larger R voting shares from white college grads and minority voters because that's where all of the growth is.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridanative10
"The Blue Wall," was a big part of the Democrats strategy for decades, sort of like the browning of America. Many Great Lakes states have been Democratic cornerstones for decades.
Ohio?
The last time Republicans won in Wisconsin? 1984.
The last time they won Michigan? 1988.
The last time in Pennsylvania?1988.
Even Minnesota was close to changing.
The last time Minnesota went red? 1972.
Virginia, Nevada etc. and alot of blue states arent really very blue either. Legislatures,Senate and house seats, governorships have seen huge red shifts , huge change in electoral college numbers for presidency
Trump won Wisconsin with less votes than Romney lost it with, that shows that at least in that state, it was more about Democrats staying home and voting 3rd Party than it was voting for Republicans
You could argue the same in Michigan and Pennsylvania, although there is a case to be made for flipped votes there, but they are votes that can easily be won back.
Minnesota is the same as Wisconsin, as close as it was, Trump didnt gain votes, Clinton lost them to Stein and Johnson. Trump had 2,000 more votes than Romney.
As for Virginia and Nevada, You seem to have it backwards, both states have turned from red to blue, they are getting bluer, not redder.
Nevada in a year where it was split for Democrats in the primary , somehow elected 3 Democrats to the House and replaced one in the senate and won the swing state senate district to give Dems control of the State Senate.
Same is true in Virginia has voted more Democratic than the nation for the last couple of cycles and even in a down year comparatively, Democrats were able to flip a congressional seat there.
Trumps presidency(or rather a second term) is conditional of Democrats staying home or voting 3rd party.
If the 2020 candidate can keep Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada, and simply get the people who voted 3rd party to come back home, then he has to play defense in other states.
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