Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I've come to accept that barring irrefutable evidence of collusion with Russia, which may or may not come, impeachment is not in the cards. Resignation is also never something Trump would do unless he had no other choice. That evidence would have to involve Trump himself and not his staff or cabinet. I think there could be plenty of indictments of cabinet and former cabinet members, but Trump himself is safe as long as he personally was not involved.
Many of the decisions he's made so far, especially those surrounding firing Comey and giving classified information to Russia screams of incompetence but it isn't illegal. Dangerous to the country? Perhaps, but still legal. Obstruction of justice isn't even technically illegal even though its still an impeachable offense. There is no way a GOP congress is going to go jump on board with impeaching Trump unless there is some kind of smoking gun so big that not even Brietbart can spin it. I also think the Dems prospects of retaking Congress in 2018 are nil. Dems will probably pick up some seats but I see chances of Congress flipping to be close to 0%. Therefore, Trump will certainly serve out his term.
With that said, I don't see how he has a pathway to re-election unless things turn around dramatically and he wins back independents and disgruntled Democrats who voted for him in 2016. Trump cannot win in 2020 with only his hardcore supporters. Most Trump supporters live in parts of the country that are "bubbles" in this aspect and since everybody where they live support Trump, they overestimate his popularity. Trump is still overwhelmingly popular with conservatives, but he has record unpopularity among Democrats and Independents. That's a recipe for an electoral defeat in 2020. On top of that, chances are that Democrats and Independents who want to "dump Trump" will be much more energized in 2020 than they were in 2016, leading to a higher turnout.
My prediction is that the electoral map will look similar to Obama in 2012. Trump will not hold the states he only barely won in 2016. He will sweep the Deep South and the plains states but lose the Rust Belt. As I've said, he will not be able to win re-election with only his hardcore supporters. If Dems nominate somebody who is center to center-left, they will have an even better shot than if they nominate somebody far left.
So conservatives, enjoy these four years because the Trump train stops on January 20, 2021.
Who's gonna beat him in 2020 ? Maxine Waters ? Elizabeth Warren ? Chuck Schumer ? Tulsi Gabbard ?
Clean up your own mess - your party is a joke.
At this point in 2013 everybody was sure Jeb Bush would be running for the GOP. Once we get to 2019, the field of candidates will start becoming more clear. I doubt it's going to be any of those people.
Trump could easily also get a primary challenger on the GOP side. Somebody like John Kasich comes to mind. The less popular Trump once we get passed the 2018 midterms, the more likely this is.
It's a delight to read such an eloquently written post - but I think it's impossible, or at least pointless - to make predictions at this point. Clearly, things are gearing up for a real investigation and, as you imply, much will depend on what actual evidence there is. I think we'll know better in a few months.
But I also have to wonder about the possibility of a president being removed not for illegalities, but for being an incompetent buffoon. After all, to a certainly extent, the presidency is a bit of a PR role, and when you have someone in that role who's constantly lying, bragging, threatening, bullying, contradicting himself, spouting un-American rhetoric (like wanting to muzzle the press), and making factual errors (as distinct from lying), that's not exactly what the country needs.
But I also have to wonder about the possibility of a president being removed not for illegalities, but for being an incompetent buffoon. After all, to a certainly extent, the presidency is a bit of a PR role, and when you have someone in that role who's constantly lying, bragging, threatening, bullying, contradicting himself, spouting un-American rhetoric (like wanting to muzzle the press), and making factual errors (as distinct from lying), that's not exactly what the country needs.
This would be unprecedented if it were to occur. However, Trump's approval rating would probably need to get down into the low 20s or even the teens before it would even be in the cards. You would really have to get to a place where nobody was defending him. As it stands, Trump's supporters are still loyal and they aren't going anywhere.
The framers of the Constitution took extra care to make sure that it was very difficult to remove a President simply at the whims of Congress.
At this point in 2013 everybody was sure Jeb Bush would be running for the GOP. Once we get to 2019, the field of candidates will start becoming more clear. I doubt it's going to be any of those people.
Trump could easily also get a primary challenger on the GOP side. Somebody like John Kasich comes to mind. The less popular Trump once we get passed the 2018 midterms, the more likely this is.
You had better start grooming someone for a far more moderate platform or the Dems might never recover.
There is no one in the Dem party that could beat a GOPer at this point. And that includes another run by Clinton.
You had better start grooming someone for a far more moderate platform or the Dems might never recover.
There is no one in the Dem party that could beat a GOPer at this point. And that includes another run by Clinton.
If things look that bad for Trump we very well could be looking at a GOP primary challenger. In the case that the GOP candidate in 2020 is somebody besides Trump, I would agree with you. However, if we are looking at a Trump administration that has an approval rating in the low 30s or worse, I don't see how he pulls it off. No matter who the Dems run, there is going to be a massive movement to get rid of Trump.
And Clinton is finished. She never should have been the nominee in 2016. Her time was 2008 and she lost.
Whether Trump serves 4 years or 8 will depend largely on the Democrats. If they can get their shizzit together and become a sane, rational opposition party again they have a good chance of dethroning him in 2020. If they continue to overplay their hand and act like Trump is Benito StalinHitler, they can expect a repeat of 2016.
That said the Democrats may have a difficult time regardless in 2020 if the economy overcomes Trump's incoherent economic policy an finally picks up steam by then.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
