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Old 06-08-2017, 10:31 PM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
18,772 posts, read 6,777,208 times
Reputation: 5775

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wambatown81 View Post
You don't seem to be accounting for the fact that as people age, they often become more conservative. Many of these liberal millenial hipsters of today might be conservative a decade or less from now. It happened with me and it happens every generation. By contrast, not a whole lot of people go from conservative to liberal (although now that I've said that, people will now magically claim that they became more liberal).

A lot of the GOP states are gaining population rapidly though. North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Utah, Arizona etc. These are growing far faster than CA or the northeast. If illegals are legalized, or if we let in too many immigrant bought off voters then demographics for the GOP are done, its over, put a stake in it. Otherwise I'm feeling confident.
Only one or two members of my extended family are conservative. My dad (former business owner) was a liberal until the day he died.
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Old 06-09-2017, 01:08 PM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
29,819 posts, read 16,517,925 times
Reputation: 22400
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
Sanders would have won Wisc, Michigan and Pa. Unless you can dispute that, Sanders wins.
I dispute that. Therefore, Sanders loses.
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Old 06-09-2017, 02:40 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,486,952 times
Reputation: 3526
In the long term the best thing the Democrats have going for them is Donald Trump and an R controlled Congress.

Republican professionals know that for long term success the Republican Party must broaden their support among minority groups and white college graduates. But Trump took the exact opposite approach and won by appealing to white blue collar workers, who are losing voting share like clockwork because they're the oldest voting group.

For the canary in the coal mine, keep track of how happy the true deplorables remain with Donald Trump. I'm talking about people like David Duke, Richard Spencer, Rocky Suhayda and the followers of forums like Stormfront, VDare, and Occidental Dissent. These represent the hard core of white nationalists, white supremacists and white identity voters. They by no means represent a majority of Trump voters, but if the GOP is keeping that group happy, there's little to no chance of increasing the party's appeal to minority groups or most white college grads who are repelled by them. Bill Kristol's article in today's Weekly Standard is entitled "The Republican Future."The Republican Future | The Weekly Standard He noted that Trump's favorability rating is over 20 points negative, but worse for the party's future is that Trump's approval among younger voters is a ridiculous 19%. He said, in part:
Quote:
"one would have to be blind not to see the political risk for Republicans and conservatives in these numbers. First impressions matter. Most people don't change their political views radically from the ones they first hold. For young Americans today, Donald Trump is the face of Republicanism and conservatism. They don't like that face. And the danger, of course, is that they'll decide their judgment of Trump should carry over to the Republican party that nominated him and the conservative movement that mostly supports him. If he is indeed permitted to embody the party and the movement without challenge, the fortunes of both will be at the mercy of President Trump's own fortunes.
That fact may be the best thing that the Democrats have going for them in the future.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-09-2017 at 03:30 PM..
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Old 06-09-2017, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Missouri
3,740 posts, read 3,090,319 times
Reputation: 1616
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
I've been noting this since the election.

A consistent theme is that the focus on white defections from the Democratic Party masks an even more threatening trend: declining turnout among key elements of the so-called Rising American Electorate — minority, young and single voters. Turnout among African-Americans, for example, fell by 7 points, from 66.6 percent in 2012 to 59.6 percent in 2016.

Trump didn't win because of a groundswell of support for him, he won because a needed group refused to come out and vote for Hillary.

And yes, it was both because Hillary was an awful candidate and she represented a continuation of the failed policies of the last eight years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/08/o...u-thought.html

The accompanying chart illustrates this discontent. A solid majority, 77 percent, of Obama-to-Trump voters think Trump’s economic policies will either favor “all groups equally” (44) or the middle class (33). 21 percent said Trump would favor the wealthy.

In contrast, a plurality of these voters, 42 percent, said that Congressional Democrats would favor the wealthy, slightly ahead of Congressional Republicans at 40 percent.


This represents the facts of the last eight years.
It isn't saying enough that the Democrats can't attract voters in middle Missouri. They didn't even field candidates in four races in my voting district the last election. The democrats have a lot of old-fashioned politicking ahead in order for them to be even viable here. That is hard work that I don't even think the Democratic platform can drum up enthusiasm for.
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Old 06-09-2017, 06:47 PM
 
39,293 posts, read 40,644,556 times
Reputation: 16122
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahzzie View Post
In my opinion it's time for a new base. The Republicans have made it very clear they will never support those that are currently in the Democrat's fringe base so where else are they going to turn?
If you cannot deliver to them what they want you may not lose votes to Republicans but you will certainly lose votes.
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Old 06-09-2017, 07:27 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,302 posts, read 33,652,276 times
Reputation: 14179
Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
No way this guy wins in a majority Democrat district, it would be a long shot, and when I look him up on Google, it is only right wing sites like InfoWars saying he's close to unseating her.

I would believe a primary challenger would beat her before a Repub

I find local new press releases and news stories on him. His Facebook and twitter are HOT.
Maxine has shown just how greedy and out of touch with her district she is, this time around.
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Old 06-09-2017, 07:33 PM
 
18,744 posts, read 7,277,465 times
Reputation: 8010
Dems are in horrible shape long-term, losing 1,000 plus DC and statewide seats, controlling just 4 states -all chambers, vs about 6x that for GOP.

The Dems are truly a narrow regional party at this time. Acela Belt plus West Coast. Not much else.
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Old 06-09-2017, 07:44 PM
 
20,611 posts, read 12,971,311 times
Reputation: 5904
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncle Bully View Post
Dems are counting on demographic change to help them dominate the future. It's only natural that they would stop caring about those they seek to replace and turn their focus towards those they seek to replace them with.
That blew up on the Dems in 2016.

Let's look at the Dems "pets" here:

Black people; their birthrate's below replacement level, more and more mix race "Blacks" now claim "mixed" and if talking what used to be called quadroons, most NOW ID as "anglo white".

Asians: word is as their kind get more successful in the US, they ain't reliable Dem voters anymore.

Hispanics: get rid of the illegals and, the US really doesn't have that many since a Latino can be of any "race". IMHO Latinos are becoming the new "Italians". Too; 1 Hispanic in 3 voted FOR Trump, that was a gut blow for the Dems.

American Indians: they ain't enough of those people to make a difference if talking most elections, state of federal.
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:55 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,302 posts, read 33,652,276 times
Reputation: 14179
It is pretty bad, when in a congressional testimony under oath, you get called out as Fake News.

Must be a bad day, when Alex Jones has more subscribers and is more honest, than your entire publication.
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Old 06-09-2017, 11:04 PM
 
20,606 posts, read 8,781,788 times
Reputation: 7090
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossfire600 View Post
I just read this piece and, I too, have been saying this for a couple years. This guy hits the nail on the head. The Democratic Party, in its rush to be all inclusive, abandoned their core voting block. They are being lead down the road by vitriol heretics of political correctness hell bent on a socialist state. This also lays out why, if trump continues to fulfill his promises, you won't see another democrat president for 20+ years. I also suspect that 2018 will be a blood bath for democrats and republicans that have roadblocked Trumps agenda.

The Democratic Party is dead. It will be interesting to see what comes out of the ashes. My guess, there will be two parties. The vitriol heretics of political correctness and socialist state will eventually break off into a separate party leaving what little is left as the Democratic party which will eventually fade into the ether.
I predict the Dems will take over with Trump in office. He is the most offensive president we have had. He has embarrassed our country with other leaders of the world. It was cringe worthy in his press conference with the Romania leader.
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