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Professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every US presidential race since 1984. He believes that President Donald Trump will be impeached during his time in office - an argument he makes in his book The Case for Impeachment. He told Emily Maitlis it's just a matter of when.
The impeachment of Clinton was a mistake and big political loser for the GOP in my opinion. But that was now almost 20 years ago, so don't count on Democrats to have learned from it.
Professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every US presidential race since 1984. He believes that President Donald Trump will be impeached during his time in office - an argument he makes in his book The Case for Impeachment. He told Emily Maitlis it's just a matter of when.
So, I wouldn't say impeachment is right around the corner, but I do think it's going to come. And when it will come will be when Republicans come to realize that this President is a liability to their political survival. The Licthman rule of politics is that the first requisite for any incumbent office holder is personal survival, not loyalty to someone else.
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I think his party stands on a knife edge. On the one hand, they desperately want to support their President, and they don't want to see an ugly impeachment process. On the other hand, they realize that a President, whose approval rating is in the 36-40% range, is a liability to their party and could be a liability to their own persona re-election. I don't think Republicans are at impeachment yet, but it wouldn't take all that much to push them over the line.
I completely agree - and this is why approval polls matter. Contrary to whatever people on C-D think (e.g. "who cares about polls!" "They were wrong!", etc.), the Republicans are certainly taking close watch of them. And if they feel threatened by his presence in the WH, then they will try to save themselves. Polling in the 30's or below is a precarious position for Trump. If he slips even further, don't expect Republicans to back him very strongly. Especially if embarrassing nonsense like WH shuffling continues.
Granted, I don't totally think Trump will be impeached - but Licthman's points are not nonsensical. They are certainly based on history.
Predicting who is elected and predicting who will be impeached are two different things.
To me, this is just a guy capitalizing on his success at predicting elections to promote a book and make money. More power to him, that's the American way.
I don't think however, that he has any ability to predict impeachment. Too many moving targets.
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