so, it's official now - we are in a recession... (salaries, premium)

[fiksi]

Originally Posted by Amaznjohn

A decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters constitutes a recession. We're no where close.

Technically, definition is right...i can confirm as economist

However, the real message is that US MIGHT go into recession... meaning, that it is possible that this quarter will be negative. Therefore, a possibility exists that the following will also be.

But for now, it's speculation.

But our living standards are degrading. Have been for some time...

[dreamofmonterey]

Originally Posted by katzenfreund

at least the majority of economists think so. How low will the US$ drop? I read an interview with one expert that predicted the $ will drop to 2 to 1 for the Euro. When will things turn around? What do you think?

The Wall Street Journal

Well it is going to be bad for awhile. If you take 100.00 to Kroger, you get this:

a loaf of bread 3.99
soda (diet) 2.99
milk 3.99
paper towels 2.99
t/p 3.99
cold cuts 3.99
lettuce 2.99
tomato 3.00/lb. Roma
salad dressing 3.99
gas to get to store 10.00
shampoo 5.00
soap 3.99
Tn sales tax on food 9%

It is like 1975 all over again. Add the factor that according to loudobbs, more people are using their high interest credit cards to buy basic staples: so thats 8-20% interest. For food.

[youppi69]

They should change the definition of recession because the economic definition is 2 consecutive quarters with negative growth, right now I know there is a problem about the US economy but there isn't one quarter of negative growth.

edit: Sorry someone wrote the same thing earlier.

I was wondering though since there isn't one quarter yet but all the newspapers talk about it for months they are not helping, I mean the confidence of investors goes down with the negative news which will create that recession or worsen it.

[Dwatted Wabbit]

Originally Posted by youppi69

They should change the definition of recession because the economic definition is 2 consecutive quarters with negative growth, right now I know there is a problem about the US economy but there isn't one quarter of negative growth.

edit: Sorry someone wrote the same thing earlier.

I was wondering though since there isn't one quarter yet but all the newspapers talk about it for months they are not helping, I mean the confidence of investors goes down with the negative news which will create that recession or worsen it.

If it bleeds it leads.

The newsies' job #1 is to create panic and fear. That sells papers and advertising.

The consequences escape them--and they clearly consider themselves immune to consequences, unlike the common herd--despite their self-proclaimed brilliance.

[sweetclimber]

Maybe a major recession would do this country some good, many good things happened for the nation after the Great Depression and the minor one in the 1970's. Besides we are too cocky in this country right now, a little adversity would get some needed change huh!!

[saganista]

The official chronology of the US business cycle is maintained by NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research). It is they who make the call as to whether or not a recession occurred. Here is their (and thus, the official) definition of a recession...

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.

[hindsight2020]

who cares about semantics. The fact is that inflation is real and as long as your employer pays you in USD you're getting paid less for the same work you do with your hands, quantity that hasn't changed from year to year. That's the real indication to the individual REAL person, forget wall street and their speculation.

[HappyTexan]

I've watched gas go up from $2.50 to $3.20 in a few months.
I've seen my food bill go from $75 to $130 in a few months.
I've seen interest rate in my MM go down to almost nothing in a few months.

All of the above yet my paycheck is the same. The dollar is falling and prices are rising.

The government won't announce anything ..they are in denial until they get enough data.

[fiksi]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

I've watched gas go up from $2.50 to $3.20 in a few months.
I've seen my food bill go from $75 to $130 in a few months.
I've seen interest rate in my MM go down to almost nothing in a few months.

All of the above yet my paycheck is the same. The dollar is falling and prices are rising.

The government won't announce anything ..they are in denial until they get enough data.

This is what I'm saying... the absurd thing IS, that even when US economy is growing well, many people are worse and worse every year.

Fi, your premiums going up faster than salary... this has been happening for a long time now, EVEN when economy was expanding.

[katzenfreund]

Originally Posted by fiksi

This is what I'm saying... the absurd thing IS, that even when US economy is growing well, many people are worse and worse every year.

Fi, your premiums going up faster than salary... this has been happening for a long time now, EVEN when economy was expanding.

yep. a select few at the top get richer, most of us don't, we see that what we can buy for our pay shrinking week by week, higher food prices, higher heating cost, higher transportation etc. etc. The dropping $ won't help...