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I suppose it would depend on the geography, but I have no reason to doubt the capabilities of the US military - at least in terms of missile defense. Since we apparently have some industry insiders in the forum, why don't they enlighten us.
I rather doubt they are allowed to say. The real answer is out somewhere in the West in one of those shoot to kill any intruder bases.
Between January 2002 and August 14 of this year, the Defense Department attempted 37 intercepts of a mid-range missile and hit the target 29 times with an SM-3. There are many reasons for this, but the biggest, according to the Pentagon’s Office of the Director of Operational Testing and Engineering, is that realistic testing of interceptors is very expensive and requires a lot of lead time and support. Why Didn’t the US Shoot Down That North Korean Missile? | Defense One
I think China should shoot down NK missiles, that would send a message to Kim.
China would never do that.
They have absolutely no motivation other than to maintain the status quo on the Korean peninsula.
So, they love having Kim keeping SK, Japan and the USA off balance. But they also know that Kim would never start anything w/o their express consent. And China has no interest in another Korean War. They have too many economic interests with all 3 of those nations to ever want a ruinous conflict. Besides, the ultimate result of such a war would be a reunited Korea with a capitalistic economy. And that's the last thing they want on their border.
So, we'll see what we've seen for decades from NK; provocations. Never an overt attack.
I don't think there would be a united Korea. Judging from the rhetoric of normal North Koreans, they would rather destroy their country and die. It is not like with East Germany where people wanted to escape.
A united Korea as the result of a war would turn SK into a dangerous place, with terrorist attacks, sabotage etc.
China doesn't need NK as a buffer anymore, either. I think it's mostly pity and loyalty why they still maintain any relationship with NK. It is a rather cool relationship to begin with. I get the feeling NK has become more of a burden to China.
No, all of my fear will go away and I can get sleep at night again if I confidently know that a significant number of the world including the US won't die from North Korean missiles. I hope there is no EMP either because the odds of me surviving even if I prepare myself are slim, if anyone can survive by any method at all. I'll just die alone and lonely all by myself.
To my knowledge, there have only been two tests of our newest interceptor missiles.
The first, a couple of months ago, failed. The second, launched yesterday from the same ship in about the same location killed the target missile.
Since hitting a missile in flight is like hitting a BB going at supersonic speeds with another BB, also going at supersonic speeds, 50% of 2 tests is pretty darned good. That tends to tell me that the rocket and it's guidance system is up to the job, but there may still be some bugs in the ultra-high speed computers in the system. Probably programming bugs, as the on-board computers are obviously withstanding the high stress they are under.
This new system has been in the dark for some time, I expect, and it was very nearly all ready to go about the same time Baby Kim started shooting his brand-new toys up in the air. If he had not done that, I'm sure they would still be secret but rumored.
Supposedly, and this is just logic, the land batteries are essentially the same as the sea batteries. Both are now deployed at sea and in Japan and South Korea. Each land battery I've seen as 2 launch vehicles with 2 missiles each, and at sea, the launcher probably has 4 loaded in a larger outfit.
At 50%, it's all numbers. If North Korea shoots off one of theirs and we want to kill it, we will shoot more than one at it. Can't say how many, but I expect there would be a minimum of 3, one from sea, and 2 from land.
Why? Because if it comes to showing Jong Un our capability by killing one of his, hitting the same missile track 3 times is a lot more for him to think about than just one. One could be a lucky shot, but not 3, even if only one killed his rocket.
More importantly, we have a lot of them to shoot if necessary, and he doesn't have very many ICBMS, or even medium-range missiles of his own. Our guys have all the probability factors worked out by now, so they will launch enough to make a certain kill.
It could come to that, but neither side really wants it to. Talk talk is always better than shoot shoot. A missile duel could set Baby Kim off, and he has plenty of ground punch that would be launched against South Korea if he was pushed back hard enough. Seoul is within easy striking distance by land, so that would be a very dangerous situation.
China doesn't want a war, we don't, Japan doesn't, nor do the South Koreans. North Korea doesn't want one either, because that would be the end of Kim Jong Un. But we have two leaders who double down when threatened, and one impulsive wrong move could set it off right now.
Tillerson and the Defense Dept. are very well aware of that. And Rex Tillerson was right when he said "There is ALWAYS a diplomatic solution that can be found." Let's hope he's given the time to find it. We sure don't want to be at war with our largest trade partners over a chump state like North Korea.
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