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Old 11-24-2017, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
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Originally Posted by bobnj1960 View Post
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Old 11-24-2017, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
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Originally Posted by Troyfan View Post
I don't think you're quite understanding what the graph shows. It shows that as incarceration rises, crime drops. And crime kept dropping. Once the early eighties were past, crime rates go almost monotonically downward.
If incarceration and crime rates both increased you would say incarceration has no effect on crime, ceteras paribus.
If incarceration rates went down while crime went down, you would say not jailing people so much reduces crime.
No use arguing you are seeing it differently than most people. The consensus is that the incarceration rate climbs AFTER the crime rate declines, not at the same time, or before. Maybe I'm not making myself clear, the link I provided might explain it better than I am able to.
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Old 11-24-2017, 10:52 AM
Status: "Days like this I think to myself "I hate living in Georgia"." (set 2 days ago)
 
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Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
That's not quite true, the incarceration rate went up even AFTER crime dropped.

http://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-...lationship.pdf
I suspect that lengthy sentences might contribute to people still in prison in combination with new people going to prison.
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Old 11-24-2017, 11:01 AM
Status: "Days like this I think to myself "I hate living in Georgia"." (set 2 days ago)
 
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Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
The purpose of prison is justice for the victim, not making a better life for the inmate. If you don't want them to be recidivist, give them longer sentences and make them serve their full time.
In many cases the criminals who serve longer than average prisons sentences (and serve their full time) go back to committing crime. No, I don't think prison should make life better for the prisoner. However, there are people who commit crimes so that they can go to prison. Why? The inability to take care of one's self while in the free world. There is also factor of prisoners feeling more at home in prison than outside of it. This is knowing as being institutionalized. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutional_syndrome

Prison is suppose to be both a punishment and a deterrent. You are being punished for what you did. And it is supposed to deter you from doing this again. You are suppose to never want to go back to prison again, so when you get out, you stay on the straight and narrow. However, many criminals get institutionalized behind bars. They depend on prisons to survive. How do you deal with that?
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Old 11-24-2017, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
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Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
I suspect that lengthy sentences might contribute to people still in prison in combination with new people going to prison.
Excellent observation, a few criminologists have suggested that too. The other correlation seems to be harsher sentencing laws that were introduced when the crime rate was high but weren't implemented until after it was dropping. Logically what you would expect to see is a drop in crime from "incapacitation" (the effect of criminals being locked up) if an increase in incarceration actually does impact the crime rate but increasingly long prison terms and 3 strikes laws can skew the data in the way that you suggest
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Old 11-24-2017, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
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Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
The purpose of prison is justice for the victim, not making a better life for the inmate. If you don't want them to be recidivist, give them longer sentences and make them serve their full time.
If the sole purpose of incarceration is for retribution then I guess your theory is correct. But if you want to base sentencing decisions on evidence rather than emotion everything I have read states that the certainty of getting caught and being punished, and the celerity of the punishment following the crime is a far greater deterrent than the severity of the sentence.

"A series of studies have examined the public safety effects of imposing longer periods of imprisonment. Ideally, from a deterrence perspective, the more severe the imposed sentence, the less likely offenders should be to re-offend. A 1999 study tested this assumption in a meta-analysis reviewing 50 studies dating back to 1958 involving a total of 336,052 offenders with various offenses and criminal histories. Controlling for risk factors such as criminal history and substance abuse, the authors assessed the relationship between length of time in prison and recidivism, and found that longer prison sentences were associated with a three percent increase in recidivism. Offenders who spent an average of 30 months in prison had a recidivism
rate of 29%, compared to a 26% rate among prisoners serving an average sentence of 12.9 months. The authors also assessed the impact of serving a prison sentence versus receiving a community-based sanction. Similarly, being incarcerated versus remaining in the community was associated with a seven percent increase in recidivism."


So..I guess we can use prison as means to 'get even' with, or 'be angry' with offenders, or we can try to do what works.

http://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-...al-Justice.pdf
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Old 11-24-2017, 01:46 PM
 
18,664 posts, read 7,257,655 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Troyfan View Post
I don't think you're quite understanding what the graph shows. It shows that as incarceration rises, crime drops. And crime kept dropping. Once the early eighties were past, crime rates go almost monotonically downward.

If incarceration and crime rates both increased you would say incarceration has no effect on crime, ceteras paribus.

If incarceration rates went down while crime went down, you would say not jailing people so much reduces crime.
BINGO.

Cage more prone to crime, crime drops. Simply because folks cannot commit crimes outside prison, while properly caged. The longer we cage them, the safer civilized society is.

Mission accomplished.
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Old 11-24-2017, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
30,893 posts, read 13,446,335 times
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Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
BINGO.

Cage more prone to crime, crime drops. Simply because folks cannot commit crimes outside prison, while properly caged. The longer we cage them, the safer civilized society is.
Mission accomplished.
wow..did you look at the graph? Incarceration rose AFTER the crime rate dropped, that does not mean that locking people up reduced crime.

It's easy to research this:

"Incarceration & Crime: Based on original empirical analysis, this report finds that increased incarceration at today’s levels has a negligible crime control benefit. Incarceration has been declining in effectiveness as a crime control tactic since before 1980. Since 2000, the effect of increasing incarceration on the crime rate has been essentially zero. Increased incarceration accounted for approximately 6 percent of the reduction in property crime in the 1990s (this could vary statistically from 0 to 12 percent), and accounted for less than 1 percent of the decline in property crime this century. Increased incarceration has had no effect on the drop in violent crime in the past 24 years. In fact, large states such as California, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Texas have all reduced their prison populations while crime has continued to fall".
http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/d...me_Decline.pdf
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Old 11-24-2017, 06:12 PM
 
18,664 posts, read 7,257,655 times
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Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
wow..did you look at the graph? Incarceration rose AFTER the crime rate dropped, that does not mean that locking people up reduced crime.

".[/i]
http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/d...me_Decline.pdf
The longer criminals are caged, the longer they cannot commit additional crimes in civilized society.
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Old 11-24-2017, 06:31 PM
Status: "Days like this I think to myself "I hate living in Georgia"." (set 2 days ago)
 
47,623 posts, read 45,275,083 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
The longer criminals are caged, the longer they cannot commit additional crimes in civilized society.
How long do you think we should cage criminals (other than murderers, rapists, pedophiles)? You can't hand down life sentences for crimes that don't involve someone being killed.
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