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Old 08-06-2018, 10:46 AM
 
12,710 posts, read 3,222,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Well, I surely have experienced all of the above since starting to invest in about 1980.....

Most of these factors don't figure in much - realistically. I'm going to invest in stocks whether or not I pay capital gains taxes of 15 or 20 or 28...or even personal income tax rates.

Now, if interest rates on CD's and T-Bills go up way over 5 or 6%, that might sway my thinking a bit. But it's been over 25 years since we've seen large upwards trends on those.

Throughout ALL the stuff you mentioned above, my returns have stayed relatively even. So the Bogleheads are correct - just stay the course.

Of course, if one wants to turn on the financial cable stations or wrap themselves up in it full time, it always seems like this and that are happening. But, in the end, it's really a question of whether a company is making sales....and/or a profit...and what their prospects are.

I think the biggest point with Trump is that chaos, indecision and lack of market knowledge is causing him to be his own worst enemy. Left to itself, the market he inherited would likely be up more than it is...especially this year (when he started with the tariff threats and warmongering and whatever else)...

I've found the same with lots of things in life...the more I fiddle with them, the worst they get.

My camp is with the Republicans. You know, those who prayed at the altar of free trade....which, of course, they weren't serious about. Seems like that is the case with most every platform they claimed to stand on (balanced budget, etc.)...
I see you love this subject and unfortunately your comments tend to perpetuate this thread, the title of which drew me here because I always try to separate fact from fiction where it seems needed and important. That said, I always make the point as well that no one changes their mind about anything here, so why do I bother? Just a way to waste a little time while waking up in the morning I suppose...

Again you lose me a bit with much you write, like having experienced all you say you have experienced since you started investing. Just FYI, I started investing at a young age, as soon as I was able to divert some of my income to employer-matched tax deferred contributions to my 401K. Then later with my own after-tax investments, as a day-trader and investor in other than stocks as well. I am fortunate and happy to say I've done well. Well enough to be comfortably retired now, living off the returns of those investments. Though we agree on the overall benefit of "staying the course," anyone who doesn't re-evaluate and adjust their investment portfolio along the way is something like a company that doesn't continuously redo it's one, five and ten year business plan on a regular basis.

I get the feeling you don't understand my comments either. The influence of all those factors I listed is not something we "experience" first-hand or personally. I was referring to what the markets react to, always, in ways investors like us really can't know. What may not "factor in" for you personally is not what I'm referring to when making a comment about what drives the financial markets, stock markets. You may not care what the capital gains tax rates may be, for example, but you can bet many companies and investors do! To the tune of billions of dollars involved. I don't think that's you or me. Right? How the "movers and shakers" react to any of those factors that matter to the tune of billions of dollars is what matters, what moves the markets, and we simply go along for the ride, sometimes for better, sometimes not so much.

You may not personally care what the Fed does to the federal funds rate as another example, but ever notice what happens in the markets when the Fed announces what it will do? Or not do? Every one of those factors have their short-term and long-term significant affects on the markets.

Bottom line point, for me anyway, again with respect to the title of this thread specifically, anyone who knows how all the many factors can and do affect the markets should know better than to give Trump the sort of credit for our economy in the short time Trump has been in office, all else considered. The DJIA is really not a legitimate report card for the POTUS or any party for that matter. History has taught that lesson well.
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Old 08-06-2018, 04:52 PM
 
2,038 posts, read 1,947,995 times
Reputation: 3449
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Don't be silly!

The S&P is quite indicative of the market. We are talking the US Market as a Whole, right?

Not only is it STILL not up even normal for this YTD, but many are predicting it won't be....

My portfolio is easily in 100's, if not more, companies (mutual funds, buffet and more)....and big enough to be a good indicator (mostly US, conservative, etc.).....

The real point here is that anyone who says the US Stock Market (or markets) is BOOMING is very wrong. If they say the bond market is booming they are ever more wrong (interest rates going up means bonds go down). Housing starts are down.


Yet in the first 7 months of this year, instead of 7%, I made 35% less than that (4.4% or so)....

You can cherry pick all you want. A real boom stock market is double digits....and well into them....on the DOW and S&P. Historical averages are 10%
"According to historical records, the average annual return for the S&P 500 since its inception in 1928 through 2017 is approximately 10%"

So, we can say with truth:
1. 2018 is below average
2. 2018 is way below my average
3. 2018 is far below DOW averages
4. By no market measure is 2018 a boom year.

You can't dispute that except to say you found a $100 bill on the curb last night so your stocks are doing great.

BTW, my more conservative accounts (located at another brokerage) - which are all mutual funds and about 40% bonds, money markets and a little cash - are up less than 3%. That might be a more typical return for most people who have managed assets in an IRA, etc.
Isn't the S&P 500 total return index up around 7% YTD? I wouldn't say that's below average. Nasdaq is up around 13% YTD, that's well above average. When everyone thinks those returns are subpar, that's the kind of talk around the top of a market.
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:58 AM
 
Location: NC
5,118 posts, read 1,822,621 times
Reputation: 2374
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Don't be silly!

The S&P is quite indicative of the market. We are talking the US Market as a Whole, right?
you keep moving/changing the goal posts, sweet hypocrisy
you were talking about the DOW bro, cherry picked 2 tickers then complained about the market not being up double digits even though the NASDAQ is up double digits and are now trying to spin the discussion to the S&P. Your head must be spinning as much as the NeverTrumpers.

me, silly? for proving you wrong using facts routinely in this thread?
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:35 AM
 
15,222 posts, read 4,018,099 times
Reputation: 11008
Hey, today.....the S&P is up exactly to where it was 7 months ago! MAGA. I can't get out of the way of this BOOM train!

Why...if the DOW goes up another thousand points, it will be where it was in January.

MAGA.
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:53 AM
 
15,222 posts, read 4,018,099 times
Reputation: 11008
Quote:
Originally Posted by fumbling View Post
Isn't the S&P 500 total return index up around 7% YTD? I wouldn't say that's below average. Nasdaq is up around 13% YTD, that's well above average. When everyone thinks those returns are subpar, that's the kind of talk around the top of a market.
If you invested in the NASDAQ you are far behind the eight ball. Didn't it hit 4,000 in 1999? Even if you bought in at 2,000, the return in 22+ years is 6% compounded....of course these "revert to the mean/average" at some point, but still not a good investment over the decades.

Better off with the DOW or S&P - neither have gone above their highs from 6+ months ago, the DOW especially being way below it.

it goes without saying that the vast majority of IRA's and passive market investors (which is most of them) are not invested in the NASDAQ index.

I'd say with the recent upticks we are getting to about "average" returns. I certainly wouldn't start forum threads crowing about "hey, we might make this year what was made every years since 1928".....

One must keep in mind that the 10% historic rate includes the Great Depression - meaning the rate of return for the last 80 years would likely be much higher. Let me check.....

Sure - 17.5 and 18.2 are the YEARLY gains of the S&P for the 80's and the 90's - I knew I remembered generally big returns...on a constant basis! That's two decades.

Obviously, GW and the GOP fiscal policies destroyed that record and there was a lost decade. Now we are reverting to the mean....but perhaps not enough to make up for that lost decade.

A long term investor can't make ZERO for a decade and then claim things are great when he or she makes 10 or 11% for the next decade. I don't feel like doing the math, but those returns are quite low because the money didn't compound for the first decade. Suffice it to say the returns would be cut in 1/2 or more....over the 20 years, which is a more realistic (short, in fact) time frame.

Spurred on by this thread, I talked to Fidelity and they said if I send them a letter they will get me the returns from the 80's and 90's on my account. If nothing else it will be interesting...my guess is that the 11% was exceeded.

Unless Trump pushed a nuke button we are likely to see more of the same going forward. Eventually even the markets will know he's FOS....as they already do to an extent. Still, his chaotic ways are not good for many businesses do I do feel for those caught up in his game.
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:57 AM
 
15,222 posts, read 4,018,099 times
Reputation: 11008
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
I see you love this subject and unfortunately your comments tend to perpetuate this thread, the title of which drew me here because I always try to separate fact from fiction .
Don't assume I am doing anything other than pointing out the hypocrisy (or basic lack of knowledge) of the OP and the many others who constantly push this idea that, somehow and someway, things in the last while are anything but a continuation of how they have been for many years...and, in fact, for many decades.

It's always good to remind people of their folly. Maybe at some point they will - like you and I - develop a longer term view and not credit politicians for making the sun come up in the morning.
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Old 08-07-2018, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,506 posts, read 2,331,988 times
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Wow we are closing in on all time highs!
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:29 PM
 
Location: NC
5,118 posts, read 1,822,621 times
Reputation: 2374
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Don't assume I am doing anything other than pointing out the hypocrisy (or basic lack of knowledge) of the OP and the many others who constantly push this idea that, somehow and someway, things in the last while are anything but a continuation of how they have been for many years...and, in fact, for many decades.

The only thing you do is constantly show your lack of knowledge on the markets
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Old 08-07-2018, 08:07 PM
 
15,222 posts, read 4,018,099 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
Wow we are closing in on all time highs!
You mean closing in on what we hit 6 to 7 months ago????

Financial reporting contains more Cons than a Day with Donald.

If the Dow is cut 30% in one year, you will see "Dow up" for months or years even tho it hasn't gone anywhere.

Dow 25.5 now - up from 11k in about 2000, represents less than a 5% compounded return. So this entire Century - even if you are at "new highs" or "record highs" you have made VASTLY less than the historical record.

To be conservative with what you SHOULD have made (or what the DOW might be at to be decent), we'd take 10K in 2000 and add 10% compounded per year....

That would be 55,000.

Of course, this 55,000 would not be MAGA since it represents the historical average. MAGA might be the 80's or the 90's where we averaged 15% or more....then we'd have a DOW at 144,000...

Again, financial reporting is one of the "fakest news beats" around....because they are all cheerleaders wanting you to take your money and invest it for poor returns. Just like Realtors always tell you how great the market is, right???

If I a am your financial manager and you give me a million.....and then ask me a decade later what is in your account, I will answer "it's a new record - the highest it's ever been"...even if my return for you has been 2% per year.

That's why I prefer real measurements. Not "new highs" but "how much did I make in 20 years?"
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Old 08-08-2018, 06:50 AM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,506 posts, read 2,331,988 times
Reputation: 3708
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
You mean closing in on what we hit 6 to 7 months ago????

Financial reporting contains more Cons than a Day with Donald.

If the Dow is cut 30% in one year, you will see "Dow up" for months or years even tho it hasn't gone anywhere.

Dow 25.5 now - up from 11k in about 2000, represents less than a 5% compounded return. So this entire Century - even if you are at "new highs" or "record highs" you have made VASTLY less than the historical record.

To be conservative with what you SHOULD have made (or what the DOW might be at to be decent), we'd take 10K in 2000 and add 10% compounded per year....

That would be 55,000.

Of course, this 55,000 would not be MAGA since it represents the historical average. MAGA might be the 80's or the 90's where we averaged 15% or more....then we'd have a DOW at 144,000...

Again, financial reporting is one of the "fakest news beats" around....because they are all cheerleaders wanting you to take your money and invest it for poor returns. Just like Realtors always tell you how great the market is, right???

If I a am your financial manager and you give me a million.....and then ask me a decade later what is in your account, I will answer "it's a new record - the highest it's ever been"...even if my return for you has been 2% per year.

That's why I prefer real measurements. Not "new highs" but "how much did I make in 20 years?"
YTD S&P is up about 7%. Easily could beat 10 this year. That's following about 20% last year. These are good numbers. You keep mentioning the late January run, but you have to look big picture.
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