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Old 08-08-2018, 07:00 AM
 
3,922 posts, read 773,037 times
Reputation: 2768

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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Hey, today.....the S&P is up exactly to where it was 7 months ago! MAGA. I can't get out of the way of this BOOM train!

Why...if the DOW goes up another thousand points, it will be where it was in January.

MAGA.
You can't just look at 2018 in isolation. The previous 16 months, since Trump's election, it's been up around 35% (depending on which index your consider). So big deal.....we had a slight pull-back after an amazing run-up - a run-up I think was a little too far, too fast. A pull-back here and there, amidst an overall upward trend, is healthy.

Also, I personally like the Russell 3000 index to get a fuller picture, since it includes such a broad and large range of stocks. It is up more than 7% YTD.
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Old 08-08-2018, 09:38 AM
 
16,338 posts, read 4,301,859 times
Reputation: 11497
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rachel976 View Post
You can't just look at 2018 in isolation. The previous 16 months, since Trump's election, it's been up around 35% (depending on which index your consider). So big deal.....we had a slight pull-back after an amazing run-up - a run-up I think was a little too far, too fast. A pull-back here and there, amidst an overall upward trend, is healthy.

Also, I personally like the Russell 3000 index to get a fuller picture, since it includes such a broad and large range of stocks. It is up more than 7% YTD.
I agree 100%, which is why I earlier quoted 5 year, 10 year and since 2003. Based on that we are doing average.....right?

It's all OK, but calling slow and steady some kind of NEW MAGA is what gets on my nerves...having followed the market closely for 40+ years, I hate seeing people misled.

Meantime, a lot of bull analysts are saying a pullback is due. What then?

"According to Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold, there's a high probability a record year-end rally will give way to a painful 2019.

"You could be looking at the first 20 percent-plus decline in the S&P since the financial crisis," the firm's chief U.S. strategist said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

His worst-case scenario is a 30 percent plunge next year.

"Our primary list of concerns is on the earnings front," Clissold said. "Earnings growth north of 20 percent isn't sustainable, especially when you're nine years into an economic expansion."

20% would wipe out 100% or more of the MAGA gains......they are already not so hot.

The point is...well, a number of them. Chaos coming from the WH does screw some things up....probably puts a cap on how high things can go. We don't know what that same Chaos will do when things head down - history is funny that way. Let's say Trump is indicted or impeached or does crazy things (pardons everyone, fires Mueller) right at the same time the downward trend happens?

On one hand it's crazy to say Trump makes the markets (one look at the slope upwards since 2008 shows differently - it is fairly steady).

But it is just as wrong to say a guy like him can't make things worse. I'll bet Atlantic City investors, banks, contractors, bondholders and everyone else involved with Trump kept thinking "it can't get worse" as he empire was going broke...but, guess what? It did.

I'm still with Buffet...I am a bull on the USA and the world in general. People need products and services and our production is becoming more efficient and cleaner (in the long run). So call me a Bull - but one who just may exist the market to a large degree until the Orange One stops beating his chest.
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Old 08-09-2018, 07:15 AM
 
27,277 posts, read 9,351,659 times
Reputation: 9529
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...dist=bigcharts

Bullish market participants believe that quarterly results have been stellar and the domestic economy is sufficiently strong to take aim at new highs, even as the bull market approaches its 10th year.

Naturally, for the bears everyday and every market is Armageddon.

Some ways to win. Buy the lows and sell the highs or ride it out.

10th year = stale yellow light ?

Last edited by phma; 08-09-2018 at 07:25 AM..
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Old 08-09-2018, 07:44 AM
 
27,277 posts, read 9,351,659 times
Reputation: 9529
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Please, at least try to understand...

There is a reason this thread is constantly "attacked" (criticized) that you don't seem able to understand. Of course the price charts are undeniable facts! Understanding undeniable facts is the issue here. Historical records too, can't be denied. Of course not, but understanding the REASON(S) history unfolds the way it does is very important and not easily done. This is one simple fact or truth you seem unwilling or unable deal with. I can't tell which.

Also please don't go on about what some people may do under whatever circumstances to justify what YOU are doing.

Any intelligent person should only want the facts and well reasoned objective evaluation as to their cause and effect. You want to continue your Trump angle regardless all the rest, that's your choice and prerogative also of course, but surely you can appreciate why people who can consider all the facts, objectively, are always going to be critical of your simple broken record sing song approach to understanding economics, at a minimum!

You want to focus on Trump's positives only? Fine, go ahead, but at least choose positives that Trump truly deserves credit for!

To use an analogy that might help you better understand a bit about facts and such, fact may be the Sun rises in the morning and also an undeniable fact the rooster crows in the morning, but these facts don't make it right or intelligent to give the rooster credit for the Sun rising in the morning. Again, there are a great many other factors involved, causes that make the Sun rise in the morning. All deserving far more credit than the rooster is rightfully due.

Your myopia is what causes the criticism, not an unwillingness to give Trump credit when due.
If you actually knew what my position is you would know that I perceived the conditions for a sideways market in the early spring and exited the markets. I posted it in this thread. I sleep easy not riding the daily ups and downs in a sideway market.
I'm still not in the markets and as I previously stated will be looking for an entry at end of summer and early fall.

If my positive myopia is anything its counter to the negative myopia of those on here. Maybe the balance is what has made the thread so popular. No one should be censored for their economic opinions. Everyone should feel free to announce what they are doing or express their style and comfort level or risk tolerance. Anyone not preserving their investment is a loser.
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Old 08-09-2018, 07:58 AM
 
Location: NC
5,129 posts, read 1,855,429 times
Reputation: 2382
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post

If I a am your financial manager and you give me a million.....and then ask me a decade later what is in your account, I will answer "it's a new record - the highest it's ever been"...even if my return for you has been 2% per year.
with the incompetence you've demonstrated in this thread alone you could never be my(or anyones perhaps) financial manager, though for 2 and 20 I could get you the double digits returns ive had this year.
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Old 08-09-2018, 08:03 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
4,904 posts, read 2,039,483 times
Reputation: 5360
The Dow has been breaking 25,000 all year. What's the big deal.
If you want to impress us bring back the jobs from our adversary China.
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Old 08-09-2018, 09:57 AM
 
13,269 posts, read 3,369,982 times
Reputation: 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
If you actually knew what my position is you would know that I perceived the conditions for a sideways market in the early spring and exited the markets. I posted it in this thread. I sleep easy not riding the daily ups and downs in a sideway market.
I'm still not in the markets and as I previously stated will be looking for an entry at end of summer and early fall.

If my positive myopia is anything its counter to the negative myopia of those on here. Maybe the balance is what has made the thread so popular. No one should be censored for their economic opinions. Everyone should feel free to announce what they are doing or express their style and comfort level or risk tolerance. Anyone not preserving their investment is a loser.
You made your "position" pretty clear by starting this thread with the title you chose. No big mystery there...

Nothing you explain further seems to address what I've tried to explain in return, but that's just more par for the course. The point or question continues to be what credit Americans should give Trump for what has been going on with our economy and stock markets.

You use a word I am always wanting to encourage. "Balance."

"Positive myopia" is no different or better than "negative myopia" in terms of the necessary balance we should all be able to manage when it comes to understanding what is going on around us. "Two wrongs don't make a right" as some might also say.

I don't know if this thread is all that "popular." I think you and a few others just keep returning for your own personal reasons, perhaps in part as I do because I have a little time in the mornings to waste as I wake up before getting on with my day. That and I have a hard time resisting the temptation to separate fact from fiction where it seems needed. That's what drew me to your thread in the first place. An obvious waste of time either way, because again we all know no one changes their opinion about anything in these threads. Most people just want to sound off, hear their own voice, regardless what truth or nonsense they may insist on repeating. That's what's popular in this forum.

Either way, no need to waste any keystrokes explaining all this about censorship or how we are all free to express any style or opinion we wish. Obviously this too is what makes this forum "popular." The freedom to express whatever opinion and waste whatever time our hearts desire...
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:42 AM
 
16,338 posts, read 4,301,859 times
Reputation: 11497
Officially quite a bit lower than 7 months ago now. Just a blip on the screen, eh?

That's quite a long period for the DOW to stay the same or head down......

Year to day - about 0 percent.....
7 Months - about minus 1%

The real question is "does all this chaos from the sane one improve the baseline situation?"......

My answer is no. Not only that, it hurts it. Never has so little been done with so much. We could have foregone those tax cuts and be balancing the budget and be flourishing - instead we have to guess what the sane one will do each evening.

Well, at least we have some entertainment in the Manafort trial.
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:45 AM
 
16,338 posts, read 4,301,859 times
Reputation: 11497
Quote:
Originally Posted by tripleh View Post
with the incompetence you've demonstrated in this thread alone you could never be my(or anyones perhaps) financial manager, though for 2 and 20 I could get you the double digits returns ive had this year.
Interesting since many of the best of all time (Bogle, etc.) have proven that the indexes beat the vast majority of the stock pickers....

And the Indexes are basically up zero.....

Sure, I beat them....but not nearly as much as I did under Obama....or Clinton. Or even Bush before he destroyed the world markets (by omission or commission, take your choice)...

I'm pleased that you are making the big bucks....someone always wins the lottery. But, as the indexes prove, MOST investors aren't cleaning up this year. Fact.
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:48 AM
 
1,832 posts, read 731,527 times
Reputation: 1842
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJJersey View Post
Lots of good economic news coming out lately. Market is up, unemployment is way down, yuge and unexpected profits in many sectors, interest rates are stable, housing rising again, and talks of more tax cuts and making middle class cuts permanent. Winning!
Don't forget that that boom was going on for several years before Trump took office.
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