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Old 08-15-2018, 05:00 PM
 
27,209 posts, read 9,220,291 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
I hope it is not a sign of things to come

The Dow just registered its longest stint in correction territory in nearly 60 years

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...ars-2018-08-15

The blue-chip benchmark failed to move 10% above the closing low hit earlier in the year (something that appears increasingly unlikely in current trade), and has now spent the longest period in correction territory—131 trading sessions—since the 223 sessions in 1961, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
To get the real perspective read the comments below the article.
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:29 PM
 
11,425 posts, read 5,993,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Hmmm......so it's "decent" in the lowest unemployment and after record corporate profits and trillions more borrowed to give away free to corporations, billionaires and consumers? And that is worth crowing about???

Amazing. One only imagines you in a parade when it was consistently up 15% or more each year under Bill Clinton......

Hmmmm...wasn't this thread titled about the DOW? Isn't the DOW down fairly seriously in the last 7 months? Went nowhere the time since this thread was started.....let me check.....
Was over 25K at the time of the first post - 7 1/2 months ago - and, yep, is about exactly the same today......

Interest rates are higher. Health care costs are higher. Wages are NOT higher. The DOW is not higher.

I must be missing something in this picture. Even a 10% gain in 7 months in this booming economy would not be out of line.

Yet, my larger and diverse portfolio shows a SMALLER gain - quite a bit smaller - than even the gain when I figure in the market crash. The 3 years is lower than the average, and since 1 1/2 plus years of that is Trump (and we KNOW Obama couldn't have done anything), it's fairly clear.

5 year, on the other hand, includes much more of that "horrible Obummer Economy", right....yet, wow, it's substantially higher. Not only that but I didn't have to think about the Risk that Tweeting Tan one has added to the formula.

Maybe it's me but I'd rather have 11% plus made...even including the worst Recession in a Century.....than less or the same when things are MAGA and people are shouting from the rooftops on how much of a Gawd their POTUS is......
Yes, the DOW (an almost irrelevant indicator as pointed out by many financial analysts) is having a decent year, while the other major indexes are up around 10% for about 3/4 of the year. Who knows what comes next but thats pretty good.

Do you really think you can give examples of other things and then follow it with the repeated lie that "the DOW is not higher" its a ridiculous lie and anyone with two eyes and a 5th grade education can figure out that its a lie to say what you just said.

And yeah this thread WAS about the DOW, but the comment I replied to referenced made a 100% inaccurate reference saying "zero gains" for the year so I felt it important to point out they were wrong on multiple levels because people believe the garbage they see here sometimes without fact checking, so I presented info on not only the DOW but the other three indexes to prove two points: a) the DOW was indeed up YTD and b) there are multiple other (and better) indicators that are all up significantly.

I don't understand your rant about Clinton and 15%. Im on record here on this site saying probably 100s of times that I do not assign positive or negative credit to any POTUS regardless of party when it comes to the market. Its ignorant and childish to believe that nonsense regardless of which player from your favorite or least favorite team says it.

Nobody cares about your portfolio other than you. You can post about it all you want, and if I was an obnoxious braggart I could show you things with mine that might look great, but its a sample size of one so its irrelevant.

To yammer on about how you believe that Obama had anything to do with your returns being so great is silly, a circus chimp could have been POTUS and we still would have seen a huge increase in the markets, thats how a crash works, they rebound over time regardless of who the president is. And guess what, after huge run ups they also crash, so as much as the run up between 08-today isn't Obama or Trumps doing, neither will the coming shake out be Trumps or whoever follows him. Tweets and all of the other actions of the POTUS have limited short term impact on the market. Companies actually making money, being transparent about their earnings, making smart decisions, and working within the guidelines of the laws and markets are what makes the market, not some dumb chimp in a suit that a bunch of even more stupid people voted into office.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:19 PM
 
23,351 posts, read 12,397,287 times
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Well the dow is up from January 3, 2018 but down from January 5, 2018. \

It is being touted as the longest correction in a decade.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/st...ongest-decade/

Whatever -- it means for most that just sock money into a 401K and leave it -- not much has changed for them.
For those that day trade -- maybe if they were paying attention.

And most of all of it -- Trump has little to do with any of it.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:33 PM
 
11,425 posts, read 5,993,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill View Post
Well the dow is up from January 3, 2018 but down from January 5, 2018. \

It is being touted as the longest correction in a decade.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/st...ongest-decade/

Whatever -- it means for most that just sock money into a 401K and leave it -- not much has changed for them.
For those that day trade -- maybe if they were paying attention.

And most of all of it -- Trump has little to do with any of it.
This is absolutely false. Most people that put money in a 401K don't strictly invest in the DOW. The majority of fund options in plans are specific to things like the NASDAQ, Russel, and other large indexes that contain more than just the 30 DJIA stocks. For example, SPY which is the biggest ETF out there is up almost 10% for the year when you include the dividends. Almost none of the huge funds that make up 401k options are limited to the DOW only, here are the top 25 funds by size: https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mu...d/top25largest

Completely agree that Trump has little to do with any of it, same can be said for Obama, Bush, Clinton, and any other president.
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:06 AM
 
27,209 posts, read 9,220,291 times
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The reason Presidents get credit for the economy is mostly political.

We were told by everyone in the Obama admin. we could never grow GDP above 2 %.
The reason : The economy was only growing at 2%
Now that growth is above 2% the same people say its because of Obama.

Larry Kudlow says on TV today that the most important economic story is take home pay. He says, there is a lot of noise and issues, but ignoring all that, the real story is take home pay. It was at 1% when Trump took office and now is over 3%. That is Trumponomics. I didn't fact check Kudlow so IDK if he is correct or not. What I do know is that my take home pay hasn't seen at 3 % increase. I'm retired and I control my take home pay so I'm not a good example but people in the work force would be. Every individual has their own story and take home pay is an individual story.

The biggest effect politically IMO, is the President seen as anti business or pro business. Its a political argument. Those out of power say everything is Armageddon and that is a no sale message for me.
On the other side we are doing better than ever before. I'm not sure we are there either. I'm optimistic we can get there but it will take more time.

Tech.. analysis, Trying to fill in the gap today but most likely tomorrow IMO.

Last edited by phma; 08-16-2018 at 07:37 AM..
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,005 posts, read 2,765,662 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
The reason Presidents get credit for the economy is mostly political.

We were told by everyone in the Obama admin. we could never grow GDP above 2 %.
The reason : The economy was only growing at 2%
Now that growth is above 2% the same people say its because of Obama.
If you are referring to quarterly GDP growth, above 2% happened many times under Obama.

If you are referring to yearly GDP growth, above 2% also happened several times under Obama - 4 times, to be precise.

If you were thinking of 3% yearly GDP growth, no, that did not happen under Obama (although 2015 came close), and neither has it happened under Trump.

Could you please look up the stats you are referring to before you cite them? Doing so would make you look much more credible. Some sources to refer to:

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
https://www.bea.gov/news/2018/gross-...hensive-update
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA

Last edited by James Bond 007; 08-16-2018 at 07:45 AM..
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:45 AM
 
15,553 posts, read 4,123,072 times
Reputation: 11188
In addition to the "OK" or "bad" (depending on the scope of your investments) numbers, we also have other facts...real ones..

1. Most Americans own little or nothing in the stock market - and those of us who own a LOT are really a small minority
"richest 10# own 84% of the stock market"...

So that means, effectively, most debating here are in the richest 10%. Not exactly the forgotten men and women who Trump said would "win so much they might tire of winning"/

2. Real wages are not us (down, actually, a small amount) for the past year. Now THIS IS the forgotten man and woman. Even in this case, the wages are up for only that top 10 or 20%, and further down than mentioned for the rest (considering inflation and COL)....

As far as other indexes, I'd suggest y'll start new threads bragging on how great Trump is because the SPY is up much less than it was every year under Bill Clinton.

This thread says DOW and was written about DOW and is bragging about DOW. Period.
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:51 AM
 
27,209 posts, read 9,220,291 times
Reputation: 9491
Trump is right: America was ‘built on tariffs’.

That has been a source of argument on the economy. Here is some history.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ffs-2018-08-15

One of the very first bills new President George Washington signed, for instance, was the Tariff Act of 1789. He inked the bill on July 4 of that year.

Hamilton, Lincoln, FDR all weighed in.
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:51 AM
 
15,553 posts, read 4,123,072 times
Reputation: 11188
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Completely agree that Trump has little to do with any of it, same can be said for Obama, Bush, Clinton, and any other president.
I can't see how someone who has experienced many decades of watching the markets can say this.....

The Clinton years boomed due to that bad, bad, bad NAFTA and then the Dot-Com. Clinton and Gore and their administrations saw RIGHT AWAY the benefits of the internet and stood behind vast amounts of legislations concerning it. This included wiring up the entire country for a lot of YOU....

Sales and other taxes were waived on many internet services. I won't name it all, but there was a LOT of stuff going on and championed by the admin.

Using the inverse argument, is it just coincidence that GW and his GOP friends largely created the Great Recession...and that Republican policies created the S&L Crisis and Great Depression....

I'll answer that. No, not coincidence....

You'd be a fool to see the chaos being sown and say it doesn't rattle the markets.

This is some kind of new religion where people don't see cause and effect.

I guess money doesn't mean critical thinking....

I hereby sentence all of you to watch Wolf of Wall Street and Boiler Room over and over again.

Oh, and also the Big Short and related flicks.
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,005 posts, read 2,765,662 times
Reputation: 6959
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
Trump is right: America was ‘built on tariffs’.

That has been a source of argument on the economy. Here is some history.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ffs-2018-08-15

One of the very first bills new President George Washington signed, for instance, was the Tariff Act of 1789. He inked the bill on July 4 of that year.
And, back in 1789 the US was an agrarian economy, with something like 90% of the population employed as farmers. Not particularly relevant to nowadays.
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