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Old 08-20-2018, 01:01 PM
 
11,248 posts, read 5,896,567 times
Reputation: 3518

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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Did it twice and the DOW up 250-300% - not bad. Took us out of the worst recession in history. Took us to only 26 military members killed in 2016 (sadly, already increasing under Trump).....

Probably most importantly, his team slowly guided us out of complete ruin...back to only normal shooting ourselves in our feet.

Since the DOW was already well over 26K, 7 months ago, a true breakout wouldn't be until we pass about 27K. Of course, if we use "placeholder" standards, Trump should take it up to about 55K or higher.

I sold a bunch of stuff. I'm a believer in the American economy in a general sense, but chaos and cluelessness doesn't impress me. Trump may not help the stock market much...but he can surely hold it back in a temporary fashion.

The market is all about risk vs. reward. The risk of a loose cannon tweeting about serious issues is additive o a guy who did horribly on his own investments over the decades. Trump is the same example I always used with broker....if they did so well, why are they calling me? Trump somehow spent an entire career screwing everyone and ended up with vastly less than if he would have not moved his lips...you need a lot of talent to do much worse than the indexes.
Basic understandings of the market would tell you two things:
1) POTUS doesn't have some huge sweeping control over the market
2) Natural economic cycles would never show two run ups like that back to back. Regardless of who was in office, the markets were going to recover from the absolute devastation they saw. Saying that Trump should guide it to 55 is like saying the weather man should make sure we don't get more rain the day after a monsoon.
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Old 08-20-2018, 01:15 PM
 
25,880 posts, read 8,805,594 times
Reputation: 9014
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Did it twice and the DOW up 250-300% - not bad. Took us out of the worst recession in history. Took us to only 26 military members killed in 2016 (sadly, already increasing under Trump).....

Probably most importantly, his team slowly guided us out of complete ruin...back to only normal shooting ourselves in our feet.

Since the DOW was already well over 26K, 7 months ago, a true breakout wouldn't be until we pass about 27K. Of course, if we use "placeholder" standards, Trump should take it up to about 55K or higher.

I sold a bunch of stuff. I'm a believer in the American economy in a general sense, but chaos and cluelessness doesn't impress me. Trump may not help the stock market much...but he can surely hold it back in a temporary fashion.

The market is all about risk vs. reward. The risk of a loose cannon tweeting about serious issues is additive o a guy who did horribly on his own investments over the decades. Trump is the same example I always used with broker....if they did so well, why are they calling me? Trump somehow spent an entire career screwing everyone and ended up with vastly less than if he would have not moved his lips...you need a lot of talent to do much worse than the indexes.
We know you would like to judge 8 years of Obama against less than 2 years of Trump. You point to what Obama did without knowing what Trump would do given the same time. People generally know what fairness looks like.


Anyone one can have a low body count if they don't engage and kill the enemy. It takes courage to try and win and put an end to military conflict. We simply can't afford another like Obama. The risk is to great and there is no reward. What lasting policy will he be known for besides his corruption ?


Did you joined me on the sidelines ? No, but you sold a bunch, right. What took you so long ?

The Bulls say it has room to run.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...dist=bigcharts

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-...dist=bigcharts
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Old 08-21-2018, 08:40 AM
 
14,377 posts, read 3,795,687 times
Reputation: 10565
PSA.....

All else being equal the MKT will likely go up until OCT.

All else being equal...well, the Great Depression, Great Recession, Black Monday and many other such events occurred int the fall. If anything of note happens (economically or politically) that can make it worse and just when that passing over, many managers have to sell to get their mutual funds looking right for the end of the year....

Just saying....if you are not in for the long run (in my case, I am with a certain lower percentage of my investments), then the end of September into Oct is a decent time to take profits....

Oh, and most people won't owe any taxes on capital gains if I'm reading right. A married couple can make 70 grand or so and pay zero tax on them...If this is all the case, I'm probably going to take some profits because if we eventually have to balance our budget (nationally), there is no way the Gub is going to be able to keep those taxes that low. Also, the new "standard deduction" seems to be friendly in that (retired now) probably won't have to pay an accountant any more. I can't deduct my property taxes fully any longer anyway and the 26K (married 65) is more than the deducts I would come up with.

It's interesting having tax returns as thick as a book most of my life....and moving to a point where turbotax will take me less than an hour...

On the other hand, owning lots of personal properties and having mortgages is not a good game anymore (never played it anyway...only had what I needed for biz )...
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Old 08-21-2018, 09:08 AM
 
11,248 posts, read 5,896,567 times
Reputation: 3518
So on 8/14:

Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
I just did something I have never done before.....SOLD a vast amount of the investments in my IRA.
Then a week later:

Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Just saying....if you are not in for the long run (in my case, I am with a certain lower percentage of my investments), then the end of September into Oct is a decent time to take profits
Dumping the majority of your IRA, but you are "in it for the long run" and you think people should take profits in the fall?

Seems a little conflicted there.
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Old 08-21-2018, 09:12 AM
 
Location: NC
5,116 posts, read 1,792,634 times
Reputation: 2372
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
So on 8/14:



Then a week later:



Dumping the majority of your IRA, but you are "in it for the long run" and you think people should take profits in the fall?

Seems a little conflicted there.
the poster you are quoting has shown himself to be an idiot on the markets, wouldnt expect any useful commentary from him at all.
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Old 08-21-2018, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
8,832 posts, read 2,617,695 times
Reputation: 6753
Must-see chart at this link.

The stock market’s latest sell signal has happened only 5 other times since 1895
Quote:
Would you be interested in an indicator with more 100 years of history, an excellent record at calling multi-generational tops in the U.S. stock market, and which has just flashed only its sixth sell signal since 1895?

...

The “Sound Advice Risk Indicator” is a different story. This indicator, the brainchild of Gray Cardiff, editor of the Sound Advice newsletter, is derived from the ratio of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.40% to the median price of a new U.S. house. For the first time since the late 1990s, and for only the sixth time since 1895, this indicator has risen above the 2.0 level that represents a major sell signal for equities. (See accompanying chart.)
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Old 08-21-2018, 11:10 AM
 
25,880 posts, read 8,805,594 times
Reputation: 9014
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Caution Will Robinson !!!!!!!! Red Flag Alert.

There are many GURU'S SELLING A NEWS LETTER.


QUESTION EVERYTHING !!! Who never loses when someone buys their "News Letter" ?


That's right. The seller. You dear buyer won't be making a dime on that transaction.
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Old 08-21-2018, 11:18 AM
 
25,880 posts, read 8,805,594 times
Reputation: 9014
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Translation = It goes up until it goes down.

From the link :

To be sure, Cardiff is quick to emphasize, his risk indicator is not a short-term market timing tool. In the wake of past occasions when it rose above 2.0, for example, equities stayed high or even continued rising “for many months, sometimes even a couple of years.” However, he continues, “in all cases, a major decline or crash followed, pulling down stock prices by 50% or more.”
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Old 08-21-2018, 11:21 AM
 
25,880 posts, read 8,805,594 times
Reputation: 9014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robinthem View Post
If he is doing so great why is he so unhinged?
Buy the "news letter" and find out. Please share your discovery.
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Old 08-21-2018, 08:35 PM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,406 posts, read 2,283,072 times
Reputation: 3605
Absolutely phenomenal job by Trump on the market lately. I can smell the all time highs from here.
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